Bet on NFL Actual odds are a 24/7/365 business. The NFL is a pioneer in betting on the US sports scene, even during the off-season, when the NFL regularly overshadows tournaments during the season.
So, with the 2023-24 season still three months away, which markets are worth your investment right now? And importantly, what should you expect?
Mark Drumheller, betting analyst at Yahoo! Sports and Will Hill, contributors to the Vegas Statistics and Information Network (VSIN), help the rest of us figure out which NFL betting markets are worth watching as the summer begins.
Stretch your dollars
First of all, unless you’re actually betting on NFL Week 1 odds—more on that later—the amount you bet now will be tied up for quite some time. Betting on the Super Bowl, conference or division futures, regular-season totals, or on other season-long backing markets require the ability to tie that amount.
“Whenever you bet on long-term futures, it always depends on personal liquidity. How much are you willing to keep in your bank account before it bears fruit? And what is the expected return if the amount is not tied?” Drumheller said. “For me personally, I can hit a few select winning totals, but for the most part, I’ll try to find value in bets with longer odds.”
[RELATED: Week 1 odds, lines, spreads for every game]
Bettors can often find better rates of return — making it possible to bet less and expand the bankroll — by doing some shopping comparisons between markets, then making a decision. Be more informed about what to bet.
“Andy Molitor and Drew Dinsick recently did a podcast that gives real information on the pros and cons and shows how betting on longer odds allows you to minimize your investment,” said Drumheller said, referring to two famous colleagues in the field of sports betting.
“For example, if you like Miami to get over the total winnings of 9.5 at an even amount (+100), there are several other ways to approach it. You can bet Dolphins to win AFC East with a triple return (+300) or a total alternative winnings of Over 11.5 at the same price (+300), allowing you to risk only one-third of the unit to yield the same profit.”
Alternatively, one can bet on suggested bets – such as the MVP market – that correlate with a successful Miami season.
“Miami cashing out those bets is highly correlated with Tua Tagovailoa“His health,” Drumheller said of the Dolphins QB, who had a brilliant time last season but had concussion problems. “So I want to bet Tua will win MVP at 20/1 or Mike McDaniel will win Coach of the Year at 22/1. Those bets allow me to invest only 5% or 4 .5% of a unit to win back an amount equal to the original total winning bet.
“You can apply the same logic to Charger with Justin Herbert/Brandon Staley or any other group you feel is underrated in the market. Long-term prizes and alternative winning totals are bets to make.”
Emmanuel Acho .’s Most Dangerous Fouls
Emmanuel Acho lists the Chargers, Bengals, Dolphins, Eagles and Chiefs as the deadliest offenses in the NFL.
Going Above Below
Hill is a fan of betting on the standard season winnings totals. That said, he’s only looking for opportunities in one direction.
“I’m always looking to play in the bottom-scoring season,” Hill said. “Fans are generally optimistic about their team and bet against that. Few fans think, ‘My team is going to be bad this year, I’m going to bet against them.’ Fans want to cheer for their team, so they often place Big bets irrationally, naturally creating value for Under.”
But Hill’s strategy is more than just going against the trend of fans/entertainment bettors. It is a fact that a regular season lasts 18 weeks, 17 games.
“When you place an Under bet on a total win season, injuries that derail the team—which are inevitable in the NFL—help your bet. “When watching Over/Under, you should look at a team and think how well that team is going. But if the midfielder is absent for half a season, what’s your bet on Over? Injury? happens, and that’s good for Under bets.”
And sometimes there are anomalies that can ruin an Over bet or conversely help win an Under bet.
“Draws happen. Not infrequently, but they do happen and they don’t count toward the season’s win totals when the lines are established,” Hill said.
What are we betting on?
As Hill noted, he’s more interested in the odds on total wins during the NFL season. At this point, he leans towards two teams:
– bear Under 7.5 wins: “The Bears won three games last year and had the first pick in the draft. Expecting them to add five wins is demanding. The Bears also have eight home games and nine wins. road match, in addition to a quarter-final IN Justin’s Field who made 91 tackles over two seasons and made 391 hits.
“He gets hit a lot. Can he be healthy with that penalty? Chicago is also a team that still has plenty of holes in defense and attack. The Bears are a trendy doze pick, but that’s it. It’s not an option that I endorse. I like Under.”
– Rams Under 6.5 wins: “The Rams went all out to win a Super Bowl and they got the job done. [in 2021-22], trading every first pick from 2017 to present. Trading all those options will create a heavier and older roster that is more prone to injury.
“The star model they’re after is a complicated one and their schedules aren’t picnics either. They have nine road games and only eight home games, where the majority are normally seen. The audience cheers for the away team.”
Furthermore, Hill points out that LA’s early schedule is no picnic. They play in Eaglecompare to 49ersIn BengaliIn pony and vs. eagle in the first five games.
“It’s been a rough start for a team in transition who may have started off slow and realized that their best path forward is to position themselves in a high-choice position. next year’s selection. Especially with Caleb William And Drake Maye on radar.”
That will be Heisman’s victory USC QB Williams and North Carolina QB Maye. If the Bears are ultimately interested in either player, that probably means moving from Fields.
Meanwhile, true to what he claims, Drumheller is taking the award for a season and a win total instead:
– Matt LaFleur Coach of the Year (+1600): “The awards market is driven by story and all eyes will be on [Jets QB] Aaron Rodgers in a large media market. That story will be front and center. And like it or not, Matt LaFleur is the main character in that story,” Drumheller said.
“The eyeball will be on Green Bay and if LaFleur can lead Green Bay back to the top spot of NFC North is very open with Jordan love, he had a real shot at the prize. Green Bay to win the split is +500, but I think there’s more value here on Jan 16 here with LaFleur. It’s best to bet this now, as the odds are likely to shorten if Jordan Love has a strong pre-season/training camp.”
– Bears Rotating Total Wins Over 9.5 (+350): “Hacking divisions without a lead dog makes a lot of sense at this time of year, and NFC North fits the pattern, ‘ said Drumheller. “I wouldn’t be shocked if any of the four NFC North teams win the tournament, so you might enjoy playing the Bears in that market at +400.
“Regardless, volatility in the division and throughout NFC creates value for a team like the Bears. I love how Chicago got Justin Fields a real weapon in the field. dj moore and address the offensive line in both draft and free agency.”
Reinforcing his Bears argument, Drumheller pointed to an interesting pre-season gold nugget from NFL analytics site ClevAnalytics.
“Over the past six years, the team that spends the most money on free agents has improved their total wins by at least three games and by an average of five wins. Last year’s team was Jacksonvilleended up being a big win for bettors.”
Indeed, the Jaguars won 3-14 in 2021-22, then 9-8 last season. That’s a six-game improvement. And they even posted a wild card win in front of the Charger before bowing first chief.
“The Bears are about to start the 3-14 season, so it’s a huge leap to improve by seven more games,” Drumheller said. “But with the final schedule in a weak convention, that’s a bet for me.”
NFL Week 1: Play or Not?
Betting on the NFL Week 1 odds this far is a slightly different animal. Drumheller and Hill are pretty much in sync on this: Let’s review the lines once and see if there’s a legitimate advantage. In short, there’s so much that can happen between now and early September that it’s not ideal to hold your money for that long.
“I would advise against doing that, unless you feel you have a very significant advantage,” says Drumheller. “Similar to weekly betting in the NFL, when you [bet] At the start of the week, you inherit the risk of information changing with injury reports, etc. There is a lot of information that can change between now and start, so it’s a much more significant risk than putting bets from Sunday to Sunday throughout the season.”
Then Drumheller gave a perfect example he lived by. The Colts-Chargers’ 2019-20 opener was the last time he earned an early spot in a Week 1 game.
“I played the Colts on the road against the Chargers. I felt like Indianapolis was underrated along the way, especially since the Chargers didn’t have the home field advantage,” Drumheller said. “A guy named Andrew Luck suddenly retired just before the season started, and I not only had terrible ending value, but also Jacoby Brissett-led Colts lost 30-24 in extra time, despite rushing 203 yards. That’s it for me.”
Hill noted that bettors have trouble coming up with NFL Week 1 numbers so early, which could give bettors an advantage.
“As the lines open, the limit is low. And with all the sports going on, it’s hard for the books to post perfect numbers, especially with this new trend of books posting the perfect numbers. line for all games,” Hill said, alluding to a number of sportsbooks that have had practically every regular game of the season. So it’s worth looking at the lines and placing bets if you don’t mind tying up your money for months at a time.
“But understandably, a large portion of people don’t want to do that. There’s no right or wrong answer.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a well-known journalist in the field of national sports betting. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in the 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
Play FOX Super 6 every week for a chance to win thousands of dollars every week. Just download the Super 6 app and make your choice today!
Get more from the National Football League Follow your favorites to get game info, news and more
