MLB Home Run Derby: Predictions, live updates and draws

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is yours MLB all-star home Derby 2023 winner!

After a four-year absence from the event, he took home his first Derby title with a previous win Randy Arozarena in the final, that is Toronto blue jay‘ for the first time since 1985. Guerrero Jr. and his famous father Vladimir Guerrero, who won it 16 years ago, was the first father-son duo to become HR Derby champions.

A back-to-back champion is always out of sight — the winner of 2022 Juan Soto not part of this year’s field — but the three-time winner was also quickly disqualified, with Pete Alonso warm up in the first round after Julio Rodríguez hit a whopping 41 home runs, the most in an HR Derby lap ever. However, J-Rod failed to be crowned in his hometown of Emerald City, losing to Guerrero in the second round.

We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from our predictions to live updates of our favorite moments from one of the summer’s most anticipated events. .

Round 1

5 Randy Arozarena (24 turns home) beat number 4 Adolis García (17 times going home)

No.1 Luis Robert Jr. (28 turns to go home) beat number 8 Adley Rutschman (27 times going home)

No.3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26 turns to go home) beat number 6 Mookie bet (11 times going home)

No. 2 Julio Rodríguez (41 home visits) beat number 7 Pete Alonso (21 times going home)

Round 2

No. 5 Randy Arozarena (35 home runs) beat No. 1 Luis Robert Jr. (22 times going home)

Number 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (21 homecoming) beat No. 2 Julio Rodriguez (20 homecoming)

Final

Number 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (25 home runs) beat number 5 Randy Arozarena (23 home runs)

Live Home Run Derby Update and Analysis

prediction before the derby

Who will win the Derby and who will be the runners-up?

Gonzalez: If you watched Arozarena in this year’s World Baseball Classics — or after the 2020 season, of course — you know he was made for a moment like this. Arozarena tried to make it to the event before he was voted All-Star. He spent Rays of Tampa . Bay‘ series recently in Seattle to get a feel for T-Mobile Park, and then he took in several timed practice rounds over the next week to make sure he was ready. He wants this. And he will win it – by overtaking Alonso in the final round.

Overcome: The predictions were crazy — I could change my lead into the broadcast based on how the participants felt during batting practice — but the best story would be the Rodriguez final- Rutschman. The one who loves the homeland compared to the child born and raised in the Pacific Northwest; two stars, no older than 25, exemplify how special the next generation of baseball really is. And Rodriguez will not only beat the favored Alonso for the second year in a row, but also get the job done after losing to Soto in the final in 2022. Ryne Sandberg (1990), Todd Frazier (2015) and Bryce Harper (2018) won the Derby at home. Rodriguez should make it a quartet.

Olney: Alonso values ​​this event more than anyone in recent memory – possibly never. He said as a rookie he dreamed of going to the Derby as a child and as long as he was asked to, he would always participate. A lot of Derby skaters will struggle with exhaustion and try to slow their heart rate; but this is Alonso’s fourth round, and he knows how to handle timing, what to do between rounds and all the necessary tweaks and adjustments that need to be made. Choosing against Alonso in the Derby would be like choosing against the team coached by Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl. Important experience. And Alonso will win.

Rogers: Despite being the number 1 seed, Robert will also equalize. (Las Vegas has Alonso as the favorite.) Robert has an easy home run, a trait that could come in handy for a grueling Derby. Nor will he waste any pitches (or time) with occasional fouls or bounces — or at least he won’t waste as much as the others. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, Robert was locked like anyone in the game. He will beat Alonso to win the title.

Who will achieve the longest home run of the night and how far?

Gonzalez: Rodriguez has the second-longest home run of this year’s Derby participants, at 454 feet (Rutschman hit a 461-foot shot on Sunday), and he clearly knows the pitch well. this ball more than anyone. I think he has something special in him and will unleash not only the longest run home of the night but the whole life. two longest — at 490 and 488 feet — all in his highly anticipated first-round match against Alonso.

Overcome: In terms of raw power, here’s the performance of two: Alonso versus Guerrero. And with his home track shot back in recent weeks, Guerrero was the pick and the distance was 492 feet.

Olney: Of the Derby participants, Guerrero has the lowest average trajectory in his home runs this season, but he has the longest average distance. It’s like he’s carrying a 2-iron to the plate. He will go 485 feet.

Rogers: Let’s not think too much about this. Polar bears have been there and done it — beating home runaway monsters in past derbies, including many over 500 feet. Alonso will hit at least one from that distance again, so let’s continue with the longest 507-foot homer of the evening.

Who a slugger fan will know more after Monday’s derby?

Gonzalez: The baseball world still doesn’t seem to know enough about Garcia, a huge threat in terms of speed and power on a Texas Ranger The team has proven to be one of the best in the sport. And while most viewers will be anticipating the first-round matchup between Alonso and Rodriguez, the original pairing of Garcia and Arozarena – two longtime friends dating from their time in Cuba and through Saint Louis Cardinal‘ system, before finding success elsewhere — will be special.

Overcome: Betting, for the record, is not anyone’s idea of ​​a slugger. He is 5 feet 9 and 170 pounds; Garcia’s biceps are as wide as Betts’ torso. And yet, Betts’ 26 home runs this season are tied with Robert and Alonso to come out on top among Derby participants. Betts is probably the best known of the participants, so people won’t necessarily leave the Derby knowing about him. They will only know that he has more power than his reputation.

Olney: Winner of the first round match Garcia-Arozarena. That match will have some juice and fun, and the winner will love it — maybe even do the cross-arms pose that Arozarena is famous for, whether he or Garcia win.

Rogers: That must be Robert. Although he was ranked near the top of the league when running at home all season, he failed to make the top 10 in the All-Star voting. Actually, no Chicago White Sox players appear anywhere near the leaderboard for Midsummer Classic. And compared to the others in the Derby, the least known was not even equal. Arozarena? Please. He is known worldwide for his post-season and WBC success. Betts is a former MVP and is Mookie bet. You get the picture. Many people may not know Garcia very well, but he is the man with the most long balls in the second best team in the US league. Plus, I let Garcia get eliminated in the first round.

What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby is over?

Gonzalez: Remember Guerrero’s epic semi-final against Joc Pederson in 2019 ended in a sublime match that saw Guerrero amass 40 home runs, a record for an inning? I think we’re ready to achieve something similar again, this time in Guerrero’s semi-final against Alonso, who is looking to join Ken Griffey Jr. as a three-time Derby winner. Guerrero announced he will be taking part in the Derby wearing a t-shirt that says “Mr. 91”, which means setting the total record he finished in 2019. He is ready.

Overcome: Garcia versus Arozarena in the Battle of Friends. Alonso seeks revenge against J-Rod. The matches in the first round were quite interesting. And someone, as Alden said, is bound to pop out and eat a round banana. But as a baseball enthusiast, I expect that Rutschman – seed 8 – will do spins from both sides of the disc. The format fits well for it to happen. Start from his stronger side, left, and hit until he needs timeout. Then move to the right and end there.

Olney: Given that I picked Alonso – past J-Rod in the first round and the others followed – I will phrase that and say his celebration will be grand, as it has been in the past. past. The polar bear will jump for joy, and it will be announced that he is the Muhammad Ali of the event. Alonso is not shy.

Rogers: How could it be unrelated to Arozarena? This man has a knack for drama and seems to take center stage in any big moment he’s in. Let’s start with him making it to the final. That will give him plenty of opportunities to set that memorable example. Maybe it was the last second to win an inning. Or maybe during a break from fighting, he would run up to the stands to take a selfie with a fan. One way or another, he’ll find that opportunity to fold his arms in his iconic pose, like he did during this year’s WBC or even during rounding the bases after playing his first home game of the season. That’s right: He stopped near third base, crossed his arms over his chest, then continued jogging home.