French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition is expected to hold a parliamentary majority after Sunday’s first round of voting, but is likely to have far fewer seats than it did five years ago, according to projections. .
Predictions based on partial election results show that at the national level, Macron’s party and its allies won around 25%-26% of the vote. That’s confusing given estimates of a new left-wing coalition of Socialists and hardline, socialist leftists. However, Macron’s candidates are projected to win more districts than their leftist rivals, giving the president a majority.
More than 6,000 candidates, between the ages of 18 and 92, contested Sunday for 577 seats in the French National Assembly in the first round of the election.
France’s two-round voting system is complex and disproportionate to national support for one party. For races without a decisive winner on Sunday, up to four candidates receiving at least 12.5% support each will compete in a second round of voting on June 19.
After Macron’s re-election in May, his centrist coalition is looking for an absolute majority to be able to deliver on his campaign promises, including cutting taxes and raising France’s retirement age from 62 to 65.
However, Sunday’s forecast suggested that Macron’s party and its allies could struggle to win more than half of the seats in Parliament, far less than five years ago, when they won 361. Polling agencies estimate that Macron’s centrists could win between 255 and more than 300 seats, while a left-wing coalition led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon could win more than 200.
Voter turnout on Sunday hit a record low for a parliamentary election, with less than half of France’s 48.7 million voters voting.
“We have a week for action, a week for persuasion, a week for a clear and strong majority,” Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said.
“Faced with the world situation and war on Europe’s doorstep, we cannot accept the risk of instability,” she said, urging voters to rally behind Macron’s coalition in the second round. . “Faced with extremes, we will not give in.”
Mélenchon, who had hoped the election would land him prime minister, did not accept the preliminary predictions, insisting that his coalition join first.
“Predictions about the number of seats at this hour make absolutely no sense,” he said.
Mélenchon called on the French to select their coalition’s candidates for the second round and “unequivocally reject the perished projects of the Macron majority.” His background includes a substantial minimum wage increase, lowering the retirement age to 60, and locking in energy prices, which have skyrocketed due to the war in Ukraine.
Although Macron defeated far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the presidential race, France’s parliamentary elections have traditionally been an uphill race for far-right candidates. Opponents from other sides tend to coordinate or move aside to increase their chances of beating the candidates on the right in the second round.
Projections suggest Le Pen’s National Far-right party could win 10 to 30 seats – up from eight five years ago. If it crosses the 15-seat threshold, it could form a parliamentary group and gain greater power in parliament.
Le Pen, who ran for office in the stronghold of Henin-Beaumont, in northern France, hailed Sunday’s results.
“Next Sunday it is important not to let Emmanuel Macron get an absolute majority,” she said.
Le Pen urged voters to abstain or not go to the polls in districts that only have candidates for Macron or Mélenchon.
Outside a polling station in a working-class neighborhood in Paris, voters debated whether to support Macron’s party for the sake of smooth governance and holding extremist views, or in favor of Macron’s party. his opponents to ensure that more political views are heard.
Retired scientist Dominique Debarre said: “When you have a parliament that is not entirely aligned with government, that allows for more interesting conversations and discussions. “But on the other hand, (divide) in some way is always a sign of failure.”
