The main race days often offer large end-to-end fields on cards loaded with bet races and therefore offer the ideal opportunity to find betting value for a strong point of view, so try to find the moon and try to find some huge prices on May 5 Kentucky Oaks Day and May 6 Kentucky Horse Racing Day at Churchill Downs.
Friday, May 5
Race 6, Humble Stakes (G3T), 1:26 pm
#4 sparkling green (12-1): There are some big names here in #7 Shantisara (2-1) and #6 McKulick (5-2) would cost a lot of money, but I agreed with Sparkle Blue, helping her make her debut at the age of 4 after a long hiatus after a successful 3-year season. Coach Graham Motion is good at prolonged layoffs and this Spin hard won Valley View Stakes (G3T) at Keeneland 2 1/2 lengths in the penultimate start in 2022 before finishing third with 3/4 the length in American Oaks (G1T). I think she is poised to have a very nice season and you can’t get better odds for her than in this position.
Race 7, Eight Belles Stakes (G2), 2:09 p.m. ET
#2 Sabra Tuff (20-1): This is a real swing for the fence. On paper, this cross traffic little girl isn’t fast enough to win, but I think she’ll appreciate cutting the distance down to a seven-eighth mile turn in her 3-year-old bow. Mostly, this is a pure speed game in that there’s a lot of speed in this race, and she’s one of the few dedicated squeakers who would benefit from a potentially bad pace. She cast a great equestrian in Tyler Gaffalione and her coach, Dallas Stewart, caused quite a stir. At the very least, she will overtake late to increase the payouts on trifecta and superperfecta tickets
Race 11, Kentucky Oaks (G1), 5:51 p.m. ET
My pick to win Kentucky Oaks is #6 Botanical (4-1) and I’m hoping to get a better price than her odds in the morning since she’s never raced on dirt. My feeling here is that she has a great lineage and is the fastest in the race. I respect 5-2 morning favorite lines #7 Wet paint pretty much, but I’ll try to beat her with her steady Brad Cox friend Botanical and then find a long opportunity to spice up my exact ticket and trio.
#8 USA (30-1): I guess quite a lot of bettors would consider her upset 26-1 win at Gazelle Stakes (G3) as a stroke of luck, but the reality is that she has improved quite a bit this time around. started earlier when reaching out from sprinting races to win the first one-mile race. The American Pharoah the girl went a step further in her bet debut at 1 1/8 mile as she deftly struggled to retract her bid from Shidabhuti in the long haul. She completed the last one-eighth of a mile in 12.46 seconds and claimed new career-best speed numbers across the board. There are no real highlights from a speed-number perspective other than the aforementioned Botanical, who doesn’t race on dirt, so I think the Promiseher America fits here and the 30-1 is very appealing.
Saturday, May 6
Race 6, Knicks Go Stakes, 1:14 p.m. ET
#7 three techniques (20-1): Can lightning strike twice? Probably not, but maybe… at least I expect last year’s 36-1 winner in this race to deliver great value again with a strong chance to enter another major race. . Whether that will be enough to get into the winner’s circle again, we’ll have to wait and see, but speed will set his finishing rally, he runs well at the track/ this distance and he will overtake late tired opponents with a chance to really spice up the correct bets and triples.
Race 7, Twin Spis Field Sprint (G2T), 1:56pm ET
#2 go bear (12-1): This is a deep, 14-year-old quality pitch for a grass sprint but I think he’s suitable from a class perspective as a three-time European group winner. Europe, who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup (G2T) Juvenile Field Sprint in 2021. What really caught my attention was the coach’s move to the house. Wesley Ward warehouse of the United States plus teaming up with Hall of Fame racer John Velazquez, who competed in the Juvenile Field Sprint. Expect him to shoot like an arrow out of the starting gate and soon gain a good position with a chance to create a nice shot.
Race 9, American Turf Stakes (G2T), 3:40 p.m. ET
#4 Talking about the Motherland (10-1): I’ll preface this by saying I’d be surprised if this Quality Sugar The pony from Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey’s stable was 10-1 by the time the starting gates opened, but with some big names among the 14 3-year-olds participating (plus two contenders should suffice. condition), it is possible. In grass races, I mostly look at the last quarter of a mile or three-eighth of a mile to see how fast the horse is after starting to sprint to the finish line. Talk of a Nation completed its final quarter-mile run in just under: 22.5 to win the Columbia Stakes on March 11 at Tampa . Bay 2 1/2 lengths and improves to 2 vs 2 on grass. It happened lightning fast and he had time to recover from a quick race. My best bet of the day.
Race 12, Kentucky Derby (G1), 6:57 p.m. ET
Before I get into my favorite long plays for this year’s Kentucky Derby, the top pick for me is absolutely #14 angel of the empire (8-1). He has three things I really like: acceleration at the push of a button, improved speed in the previous four starts (Beyer, Equibase and Brisnet), and he finished very quickly when he won the Derby. Arkansas (G1) with 4 1/4 lengths. His last eight-mile run in 12.12 seconds and the last three-eighth of a mile in:36.86 make me convinced he’ll be flying late. It’s as good as I’ve felt for a Derby pick since I got it I will have another to win in 2012. Now let’s move on to the big strides…
#7 regeneration (50-1): You’ll hear a lot about the lack of pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby and I think, for the most part, that’s true and could open up a little bit of fun for 3-year-olds like Rebirth with speed tactics and early enough footing that they could theoretically be a viable leader. He runs well against the competition in terms of quality and his speed numbers suggest he has a chance to spice up exotic pieces at high prices, although I don’t think he will. earned quite as high as his 50-1 morning odds. Still, it’s tempting to get 35-1 to 40-1 for a 3-year-old capable of leading a long way.
#first impressions (30-1): I really think things are settling in for Hit Show to run a big race while flying under the radar at the Kentucky Derby after he was beaten by the upset winner Lord Miles in Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). To put it bluntly, the position of the inner pillar in the field of 20 horses was a disaster. All of his 19 outside racers will do their best to move and grab some ground once the starting gate opens and most years, registrants start from a position one will soon be eliminated from the avalanche of those horses. The last Derby winner from this position was Ferdinand in 1986 on the 16-horse field. I’m hoping that Hit Show will now fly even further under the radar—I’d be shocked if a single handicap player picks him—and Manny Franco pushes him out of the starting gate into a stalking spot. decent manners. I bet he was close to 40-1 odds when the race started and he is a talented horse that has made it through three quality races in a row. Sometimes, when others zigzag, you have to zigzag.
