By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The 148th run of the $1.5 million Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico painted an unusual field by historical standards.
Only one Kentucky Derby (G1) starter has entered the 1 3/16 mile race, that’s the winner #3 mage (8-5). But the Mage at least proved a bit vulnerable in Pimlico, so the stage was set for a horse that skipped the Derby to claim the Preakness for the fifth time in seven years.
The progress Mage has made this year is remarkable. The Son of Good Magic didn’t make his debut until January 28, when he overcame a slow start to swoop and pull a special seven-feather weight three-quarters the length at Gulfstream Park. Another slow start affected Mage in The Fountain of Youth (G2), in which he raced extensively before taking the lead to finish fourth, but his tendency to start slowly faltered. proved a stroke of luck in both the Florida Derby (G1) and the Kentucky Derby.
In the Florida Derby, Mage took the early lead as the pacers hit the fast pace, but then he made a sweeping rally around the far turn to claim the lead midway through. . While Mage was knocked out late by the Forte champ, he timed his move better in the Kentucky Derby, taking advantage of the speed drop to make another huge spin rally and go on to beat Two Phil’s track speed one segment.
The problem is, Preakness seems to happen at a slower rate. Winner Miracle Wood S. bred by Maryland #4 Coffee with chris (20-1) regularly presses and tracks speed, but only occasionally takes the lead and hasn’t set up particularly fast fractions lately. The only other runner seemingly capable of vying for supremacy soon is #1 National Treasure (4-1), a multiple-time 1st place pony adds a flash for seven-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert. The National Treasure tackled a few distances against speed at the end of the year, but he marked his debut wearing flashers and numbers to represent speed from the rails.
But even if the National Treasure ran out, the speed of Preakness could hardly be fast. Mage’s slow start could be a problem in this case, putting him at a tactical disadvantage. There’s also the fact that the winners of the Kentucky Derby going deep rarely come back for the Preakness; The last to do so was Alysheba in 1987. All subsequent horses completed the Kentucky Derby/Preakness double (Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big). Brown, I’ll Have Another , American Pharoah and Justify) did not move further from midfield at any point during the Derby.
Taking all of these factors together, Preakness 2023 looks like a race ripe for conquest by a new shooter with tactical speed. The aforementioned national treasure is a contender, but I prefer the opportunity #8 First Mission (5-2), a purebred Godolphin trained by high-ratio trainer Brad Cox.
The first mission caught my attention as he finished second in his six-long sprint debut at Fair Grounds, beaten by his stablemate and recent runner-up Peter Pan (G3) Bishops Bay beat less than a distance. The son of Street Sense from a Medaglia d’Oro mare, First Mission was bred to enjoy long runs and he has understandably advanced in stretching with his exceptional 1 1/16 mile weight. girls at the Fair Grounds. After tracking pace from second, First Mission dominated with 6 3/4 lengths on a field including the first Churchill Downs Quaternion winner.
After that flashy first win, First Mission moved up the ranks to the 1 1/16-mile Lexington S. (G3) at Keeneland, where he tracked the pace before fighting deftly through tight areas along Follow the rails to win before half the length. Finishing 4 3/4 of the way in third was Disarm, who returned to fourth in the Kentucky Derby.
Lexington produced solid speed numbers of 98 (Beyer) and 103 (Brisnet), the best numbers First Mission has posted to date. He’s a pony making progress, joining Preakness after a pair of quick 5-interval workouts, showing he can go one step further on his toughest test to date. I’m optimistic First Mission will follow the pace from his outside draw, overtake the Mage at the top of the ramp and go on to win a slight upset.
Aside from the two favorites, I love the chance of #7 Brilliant Seven (6-1) to win a spot in the trio. Last year’s Champagne (G1) winner may have competed for the Kentucky Derby, but chose to pass the race after finishing third in Blue Grass (G1) in Keeneland. Coach Chad Brown successfully used a similar strategy with the Preakness Cloud (2017) and Early Voting (2022) winners, who skipped the Kentucky Derby after scoring three results. Highest finish in Wood Memorial (G2). Blazing Sevens qualified to improve in his third run of the season and beat his odds under four-time Eclipse Award-winning racer Irad Ortiz.
Select
1: First mission
Monday: Sorcerer
Part 3: Seven fiery people
Wednesday: National Treasure
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Preakness?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
