In deeply divided Israel, even the dramatic scene over the country’s skies on Sunday could be interpreted politically.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s supporters, Israel’s display of its defense technology against an Iranian barrage that included hundreds of drones and missiles proved that Netanyahu was right all along to warn of the threat. threat posed by Iran.
His opponents did not want to praise him but instead reserved praise for the air force.
“It’s like everything in Israel in the past,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator for Al-Monitor, a Middle East news site, and author of a recent biography of the Israeli leader. In recent years, the story has been divided into two stories.
Ms. Mualem added: “The division and polarization in Israeli society prevent people from seeing the big picture.
Iran’s attack on Sunday, in response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian Embassy building this month in Damascus that killed several senior commanders in Iran’s armed forces, comes at a dangerous time. dangerous for Mr. Netanyahu.
Domestically, he is an unpopular leader but many hold him responsible for his government’s policy and intelligence failures that led to the deadly Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on October 7, prompting Israel to wage war in Gaza. Abroad, he is the focus of attention international criticism about Israel’s prosecution of that war, which resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Gazans.
How he ultimately exits this episode may depend on what happens next.
Mr. Netanyahu must now make a choice. Will he respond to Iran with a strong counterattack and potentially draw Israel and other countries into a broader war? Or will he accept an attack that seriously injured a 7-year-old girl but otherwise caused limited damage, and delay a coalition to help defend Israel in the interest of regional stability?
Israel’s allies have called for restraint.
“The question is whether Israel will retaliate immediately or surprise the Iranians one way or another,” said Efraim Halevy, who served as director of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency. the 1990s.
No Israeli leader has warned about Iran as consistently as Netanyahu or has been in power as long as he has. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, he has been in power for a total of about 17 years.
Since his first year in power in 1996, Mr. Netanyahu warning that a nuclear Iran would be disastrous and that time is running out. In the nearly three decades since, he has consistently issued the same warning.
Iran maintains a network of proxy militias across the region, including in Gaza, which is funded and armed by the government. Some militias in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon have fought with Israel, creating a distraction for the Israeli government and military in their war with Hamas.
But perhaps more worrying, experts say, is that Iran is closer than ever to acquiring nuclear weapons. Netanyahu’s supporters still credit him for putting Iran’s nuclear program on the world agenda, and they now praise him for investing in a powerful, multilayered air defense system. allowing Israel and its allies, including the United States, to intercept a wide area. most of Iran’s drones and missiles this weekend before they reach Israel.
At times resorting to gimmicks and antics to draw attention to Iran’s nuclear progress, Netanyahu has previously made opposition to Iran a key part of his global diplomacy. me. Once, at the United Nations General Assembly, he held up a caricature drawing bomb marked with red lines depicting the level of enrichment. Another time, at the Munich Security Conference, he waved to a piece of debris that he said was an Iranian drone sent from Syria and shot down by Israel.
“Wherever he went, wherever he went,” recalled Jeremy Issacharoff, Israel’s former ambassador to Germany and for many years the State Department’s director of coordination of diplomatic efforts on regional security and the Iranian threat, he was all about it.”
At times, Netanyahu’s anti-Iran campaign has severely strained Israel’s relationship with American presidents, even though America’s bipartisan support for Israel has long been considered a strategic asset.
Around 2012, Netanyahu angered the Obama administration by pushing President Barack Obama to set clear “red lines” on Iran’s nuclear progress, which would prompt the United States to launch a military strike. the. Previously, the Israeli Prime Minister was planning a unilateral attack by Israel despite fierce opposition from Washington and public criticism from a series of former Israeli security leaders. It was never clear whether Netanyahu was bluffing and the prospect of an imminent attack diminished.
He even challenged Mr. Obama in 2015 with an impassioned speech before a joint session of Congress, denouncing what he called the “bad deal” being negotiated by the United States and other world powers. with Iran to limit its nuclear program.
When President Donald J. Trump came to power, Mr. Netanyahu encouraged him to withdraw from the deal — a move that many Israeli experts called a serious mistake and a failure of Mr. Netanyahu’s Iran policy.
“Since then, there have been no restrictions on the program,” Mr. Issacharoff said, adding, “It has never been more progressive.”
But also under Mr. Netanyahu’s watch, Israel has built diplomatic ties with more Arab countries considered part of the moderate, anti-Iran axis, including the United Arab Emirates.
Regardless of what happens next, Ms. Mualem, the Netanyahu biographer, said, “Bibi is still in the game,” referring to him by his nickname. “He is the central figure, and it is not over yet, diplomatically or politically. And he plays a long game.”
