Israel’s Defense Minister said the country’s army destroyed half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon. However, analysts doubt whether Israel’s increasing use of targeted killings will weaken the militant group.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon and Iran’s most powerful regional proxy, has been engaged in violent cross-border clashes with Israeli forces since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on July 7. October. With little sign that the conflict is abating and becoming less frequent. Diplomatic negotiations have yet to lead to a ceasefireIsrael in recent months has begun eliminating Hezbollah fighters in targeted attacksreflects a clear change in military strategy.
“Half of the Hezbollah commanders in southern Lebanon have been killed,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit Wednesday to Israeli troops along the northern border with Lebanon. “The other half are in hiding,” he added, without providing specific numbers or evidence for his claim.
A Hezbollah official and a senior Lebanese intelligence official, both speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject, denied Mr. Gallant’s numbers on Thursday.
Some experts expressed skepticism about whether Israel’s targeted killings could achieve its goal of pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon, thereby preventing cross-border attacks and allowed tens of thousands of people to emigrate. Israeli civilians had to evacuate because of the fighting return.
“It is psychological warfare,” said Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst and expert on Hezbollah who is close to the group. He added that Mr. Gallant’s statement was a means “to convince the Israeli audience that the military is achieving its goals.”
In fact, Mr. Kassir said, of the 100,000 Hezbollah fighters, no more than 20 of the roughly 270 members the group admitted to being killed were commanders.
Analysts said Gallant’s comments reflected a growing consensus among Israeli officials that Hezbollah poses the clearest threat on the country’s borders. On Sunday, Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s emergency war cabinet, declared that Israel’s border with Lebanon was its “biggest and most urgent challenge.”
Publicly, the Israeli military has named nine Hezbollah fighters it has eliminated and described as “commanders” on the messaging app Telegram since October 7. Some have been described as high-ranking figures. High in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unitand others believed to have participated in the group’s drone operations. The claims cannot be independently verified.
“They need this appearance of success and so they are publicizing these assassinations,” said Amal Saad, a lecturer in politics and international relations at Cardiff University in Wales who studies Hezbollah. ”. “It is compensation for the lack of any military achievements,” she added.
Hezbollah rarely releases details about the ranks of its slain fighters and often denies Israeli military claims about its role. However, analysts say the group’s response to targeted attacks often underlines the importance of killing the gunmen.
“Israel has killed a number of commanders in its south,” said Rym Momtaz, a Paris-based researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies specializing in the Middle East. That is not something they deny, and of course this is a problem, but Gallant is overstating and exaggerating here.”
Another analyst noted that wartime estimates of battlefield costs could be questioned. “All sides probably have an interest in showing that they are doing a good job and reducing minimize losses”.
Mr. Levitt said Hezbollah lost a significant number of fighters and commanders in the war with Israel. But “the reality is that Hezbollah is deeply powerful,” he said.
Elias Hanna, a military analyst and former major general in the Lebanese Army, said that regardless of how many Hezbollah commanders were killed, Israel’s shift toward targeted assassinations “will not affect to” Hezbollah’s “modus operandi.” He added, “It is a war of attrition and a war of position.”
After air strikes killed what Israel described as two Hezbollah commanders, the militant group claimed responsibility. about drone and missile attacks in northern Israel last week killed one soldier and injured 16 other soldiers and two civilians. This was one of the most damaging attacks by Hezbollah in Israel in recent months.
Johnatan Reiss And Anushka Patil Report contributions.
