Ivor Williams
Summary
There are two reasons to suspect that our climate change is a ‘crisis’.
1. Science is based primarily on rising global temperature values. But they are given a false flux of accuracy by their unbelievable measurements down to one hundredth of a degree Celsius.
2. The weather and climate of England and Wales have been monitored much more closely than anywhere else in the world for long periods of time. Why is there no trace of the climate emergency in the measurements of temperature, precipitation, storms and tides?
We were told there was a climate emergency
The UK Government May 2019: ‘MPs passed a motion to declare a climate and environmental emergency… This proposal, which embodies the will of the Commons… was passed without need. vote.
Teacher are encouraged to act on the 29-page manual: ‘How to declare a climate emergency at your school or university… Do you simply declare a climate emergency or you Declare a climate emergency MEANING? A meaningful climate emergency declaration requires direct action and measurable systemic change. ‘
Local Council in the UK were quick to join: ‘300/404 (74%) County, County, Unit & Municipal Councils have declared a Climate Emergency to date. Also 8 Combined Agencies/City Areas. ‘ (October 2021)
United Nations more details: ‘Climate change is the defining crisis of our time and it’s happening faster than we fear…. Rising temperatures are driving environmental degradation, natural disasters, extreme weather, food and water insecurity, economic disruption, conflict and terrorism. Sea levels are rising, the Arctic is melting, coral reefs are dying, oceans are acidifying and forests are burning’.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations agency that reviews science related to climate change: ‘Scientists are observing changes in Earth’s climate in every region,’ they claim in the report August 2021. ‘Many of the changes observed … are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some changes … are irreversible in hundreds to thousands of years. five. “
These disaster warnings have turned every flood, every storm, every drought and every ‘record’ high or low temperature into clear evidence of dangerous climate change. But the world’s weather has only been regularly monitored over the past two centuries – just 2% of the time since the last ice age ended. Many more records will be broken in the next millennium or two.
Is the data real?
Greenhouse gas
Carbon dioxide (CO2): Research has shown that the CO content in the pre-industrial atmosphere (1750-1800)2 was around 278 ppm (parts per million). This is used by the IPCC as a baseline. Measurements are made at Mauna Loa Observatories in Hawaii since 1958 show a steady increase.
September 1961: 315 ppm
September 2021: 413 ppm, about 30% increase in 60 years
413 parts per million = 0.04%
Scientists say that the continued increase in these and other greenhouse gases is leading to global warming.
The atmosphere contains 1-4% water vapor, by far the largest greenhouse gas. The remaining substances are methane (ONLY).4)nitrous oxide (N20), ozone (O3)and fluorine gas, all in much smaller quantities.
These gases are keep the earth warm. Without them, the earth’s average temperature would drop by more than 30 degrees Celsius, from plus 14 to minus 18. But there’s also a feedback problem: if the atmosphere warms, it can hold more water vapor. , thereby exacerbating its influence on weather and climate.
Global temperature
Global temperatures are being monitored by the US National Aeronautics & Space Administration, the Goddard Institute for Space Research (NASA/GISS), the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Japan Meteorological Center (JMA), the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. Reports in the form of temperature anomalies refer to an agreed cyclical average, typically 30 years.
The NASA / GISS global temperature chart from 1880 to 2020 using data as anomalies with reference to 1951-1980 averages.
This chart is shown on the NASA/GISS website. Note that the y-axis (temperature scale) is magnified to show the trend more clearly. It is this shape, sometimes with the x-axis (year) pressed to be more exaggerated, that appears all over the media.
NOAA also use data from 1880. Their chart plots global temperatures as an anomaly with reference to the 1901-2000 mean and is very similar in shape to the chart above.
JMA calculates anomalous global temperatures with reference to the 1991-2020 or 1901-2000 mean.
England Met Office Center Hadley using data from 1850. Their 2020 anomaly is +0.92 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average, which is in fact 14.0 degrees Celsius, so they are saying temperature Globally that year it was 14.92 degrees Celsius.
Temperature data
Meteorological monitoring stations report the temperature to one decimal place. ‘NASA temperature analysis combines surface temperature measurements from over 20,000 weather stations, vessel and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures… in place The measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varying distances of temperature stations around the globe and the urban heat island effect…. These calculations produce a global mean temperature deviation from the base period from 1951 to 1980.’
The NASA/GISS, NOAA and JMA websites give the annual global anomaly for 2020 in two places of decimals respectively: +1.02, +1.19 and +0.34 degrees C, warmer than each of their average periods.
The full scientific basis for global warming is based on temperature data provided by these five institutions, plus CO2 File.
It is hard to believe that scientists can measure the overall annual temperature of our entire globe, all 510,000,000 km2, accurate to one hundredth of a degree. The two places of the decimal only reflect the extent of the averaging, not the accuracy of the data.
The full scientific basis for global warming is based on temperature data provided by these five institutions, plus CO2 File. No sign of any margin of errorcasts considerable doubt on the quoted accuracy of the figures.
Fifth temperature series and other UK data
There is another temperature record available, for a much smaller area but running from 1659. This is the UK’s Hadley Met Office Centre. Temperature Lines Central England by far the longest tool temperature record in the world. It covers a triangular area of Manchester-London-Bristol. Currently four reporting stations are used.
The monthly charts (below) cover the back of the Little Ice Age (1300-1850) and the beginning of Industrial Revolution (from the second half of the 18th century). The y-axis (temperature scale) is more condensed on the NOAA and HadCRUT plots (above).
These graphs show actual average temperatures (not abnormal temperatures) using four reporting stations over a small area. This longer period will bury all traces of weather and show the climate more clearly. There was some visible warming for several months, but nothing to indicate a crisis.
Precipitation
The England and Wales rainfall totals are available for a period of 254 years from 1766. There is no sign of a climate emergency here, or any noticeable change in the recorded counts.
Storm
There appears to be no effect of climate change on Storms in Great Britain.
Sea level
UK long-term tide gauge at North Shields and Newlyn showed a slow and steady increase over the past 100 years of 2 mm/year.
Summary
Global temperature anomalies, plus rising levels of carbon dioxide and other emissions, are the reason for concern about climate change.
The unusual publicity of temperature data has led to every case of unusual weather around the world being seen as evidence of impending doom.
The weather is mostly normal with variations, plus the occasional vanishing into something more wild. It has always been like that.
Although the global climate is changing, there are two reasons to have some doubts about calling the situation an ’emergency’.
1. Science is based primarily on rising global temperature values. But they are given a false flux of accuracy by their unbelievable measurements down to one hundredth of a degree Celsius.
2. The weather and climate of England and Wales have been monitored much more closely than anywhere else in the world for long periods of time. No trace of climate emergency situation in temperature, precipitation, storm and tidal measurements.
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