By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
A third of a century has passed since 1990, when the IPCC made its first global warming predictions. In the more than 400 months since January 1990, the IPCC’s initial projections of 0.2-0.5 C warming per decade over the next century (below) have proven excessive.
In 1990, the IPCC also predicted that, on average, a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would cause global warming of 3 degrees Celsius – warming similar to the warming predicted from a century of man-made emissions from all sources. By 2021, IPCC predicts that CO2-induced warming will double2 would be 2 to 5 degrees Celsius, with the best estimate being 3 degrees Celsius, ten times more than the decade predicted in 1990.
The Realitometer, to be published each month, shows the equivalent of real-world global warming per century since January 1990 from the University of Alabama at Huntsville satellite monthly temperature data set, over the IPCC’s predicted range and with a centennial 3.9 C. -equivalent warming is predicted in the CMIP6 models.
The Realitometer shows only 1.33 C/century of real-world warming for more than a third of a century. Thus, the 3.9 C mid-range temperature prediction of the CMIP6 samples is shown to be a shocking 293% above real-world warming. The IPCC’s 2-5 C prediction is 150% to 375% of real-world warming. Since then, however, the IPCC has not reduced its predictions, first made in 1990, to bring them somewhere in the range of observed reality.
The IPCC made its prediction in 1990 based on four emission scenarios A.D. Scenario A is the “business as usual” scenario. The scenario assumes a substantial increase in annual emissions compared to 1990. Scenario B predicts no increase in annual emissions compared to 1990. In fact, annual emissions have increased by more than half since 1990. Emissions to 2021, the last year for which data are available, follow business-as-usual scenario A precisely. However, the warming predicted in Scenario A simply does not occur.
The realitometer is based on temperature anomalies measured by satellites because the data are not contaminated, because terrestrial data sets, due to the urban heat island effect, direct warming due to thermal emission from the components street, not fully calibrated.
UAH v.6 and not other satellite datasets (RSS v.4, NOAA v.4 and Washington U v.1) are used because, as Andy May points out in a distinction column here , UAH alone corrected the spurious data in the older NOAA-11 to NOAA-14 satellite equipment, and because, after that correction, the UAH data conformed much more closely than any other satellite data set. other than for radio data, an independent measure.
Month after month, the Reality Gauge will show absurd exaggerations and are the official predictions of global warming that easily manipulated governments – only in Western nations – have given. policies that destroy their economies. Those policies are based on the view that in the mid-range there will be almost three times as much global warming as there is today. However, none of the mainstream media reports how amazingly large the ratio of prediction to reality is.
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