Ukrainian infantrymen of the 28th Brigade view damaged buildings as they drive to a frontline position facing Russian troops on March 5, 2023 outside Bakhmut, Ukraine.
John Moore | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
After seven months of fighting for the industrial city of Bakhmut in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, it’s no surprise that neither Ukraine nor Russia wants to surrender – or capture.
But now it seems increasingly likely that Russia, through the sheer strength of its manpower devoted to the relentless fighting there, especially Moscow’s mercenary force in the Wagner Group, has can gain advantage.
On Wednesday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary force fighting in Bakhmut (a city Russia calls “Artemovsk”) says that Wagner has complete control of the eastern part, according to published comments by Russian state news agency Tass.
Despite the fact that its forces appear vulnerable to encirclement, Ukraine on Monday announced it would continue to defend the city and send reinforcements, despite expectations that a tactical withdrawal was already in the air. post.
Both Russia and Ukraine have poured massive amounts of manpower into their bid to capture and defend Bakhmut, with both claiming to have inflicted hundreds of casualties on each other’s forces on a daily basis.
Besides atone for these sacrifices with some sort of victory in Bakhmut, there are a number of other reasons why both sides have reason to keep fighting to the end, from symbolic to purposeful. military.
symbolic value
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the decision to protect Bakhmut showed that nowhere in Ukraine would be “abandoned”, an important symbolic and psychological message to Ukrainian fighters that defending the country Theirs, after a year of fighting, is very important.
However, the value of continuing to fight in Bakhmut – a city with a population of about 70,000 and known for its pre-war salt mining industry – has been questioned, with analysts and military officials note that even when Bakhmut fell to Russia, it won. did not change the course of the war suddenly.
An aerial view of the devastation in Bakhmut on February 27, 2023. Russian forces appear to be tightening the noose around the city in Donetsk.
– | afp | beautiful pictures
“I think it has more symbolic value than strategic and operational value,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Monday when asked about the significance of the Bakhmut battle.
“The fall of Bakhmut does not necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the course of this war,” he added, noting that he would not predict when Bakhmut might fall to Russian forces.
Ukrainian officials say the city is now largely in ruins, reducing any value it might have to Russia while for Kyiv it is part of Ukraine. “I think it has more symbolic value than actual strategic value,” Yuriy Sak, an adviser in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told CNBC.
“It wasn’t a big city… now it’s ruins, it’s crushed. There were a few thousand people living in underground shelters but it was a desolate city, with only cannons. constant fighting and street fighting.Strategically, I think for both sides now, it’s more of a symbol, that’s why we call it ‘fortress’ of Bakhmut,” said Sak.
The private military company Wagner has reason to prove in Bakhmut as it seeks to enhance its credibility in the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (with which Prigozhin has had a very public controversy) as well as in the community. Russian military and public blog.
Michael Clarke, former director general of the British defense and security think tank RUSI, agreed on Tuesday that “there is no great strategic value in Bakhmut” but noted that Russia, as well as Ukraine, has given the city a special symbolic meaning.
“For seven months now, the Wagner Group… has been making Bakhmut a target to show that they can gain a foothold when the rest of the Russian military is losing ground. So it’s become one. big symbolic problem,” Clarke told BBC radio, adding that he didn’t believe Bakhmut’s demise was inevitable but said it was “very likely.”
“The Ukrainians are now in a situation where they have to decide whether they accept the symbolic issue of giving it up or they will lose more troops defending it.”
A soldier from the Ukrainian assault brigade walks along a muddy road used to transport and deploy the British-made L118 105mm cannon, on March 4, 2023, near Bakhmut, Ukraine.
John Moore | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
Whether Ukraine can continue to supply its troops in Bakhmut is an important issue. On Tuesday, the British Ministry of Defense noted that a Russian attack destroyed a bridge on the only paved supply road to Bakhmut that remains under Ukrainian control, noting in an update. intelligence that “muddy conditions are likely to hamper Ukraine’s resupply efforts as they increasingly use unpaved rails.”
Clarke said the southwest of Bakhmut still provides Ukraine with a road in and out of Bakhmut but once that route is cut “they will have to retreat”.
Strategic value
Russia has made no secret of how it sees the capture of Bakhmut as a way to cut off Ukraine’s supply routes in the wider Donetsk region, capturing it as a key Russian military goal. Bakhmut serves as a transit hub for Ukraine to supply its troops in the region although Ukrainian officials have sought to downplay the impact of any Bakhmut collapse on the war effort. .
Ukrainian military vehicles run along a road outside the strategic city of Bakhmut on January 18, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. Russia has stepped up its offensive in the Donetsk region over the new year, with the regional governor appointed by Kyiv accusing Russia of using incineration tactics.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | beautiful pictures
However, Ukraine is wary that Russia will use the city as a springboard to advance to other cities in eastern Ukraine, consolidating its military occupation of the region.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy warned that Russian troops would have an “open road” to key cities in eastern Ukraine if they capture Bakhmut.
“This is a tactic for us,” Zelensky told CNN, noting that Kyiv’s army is united in extending the defense of the city. “We understand that after Bakhmut they can go further. They can go to Kramatorsk, they can go to Sloviansk, it will be an open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine, in the direction of Donetsk. That’s why our people are standing there.”
Ukraine’s concerns that capturing Bakhmut would allow the Russians further advance are not widely shared. Analysts say that Russia has expended so much manpower in the battle for Bakhmut that it could cause them to disappear.
Experts at the think tank think tank noted that Bakhmut was not “of operational or strategic significance”, but noted that, for Russia, capturing Bakhmut was “necessary but not sufficient for the further Russian advances” in the Donetsk region.
“Russian forces have suffered heavy losses fighting for the city so their offensive will most likely culminate after they have captured it – if not before. The loss of Bakhmut is therefore not a major strategic or strategic concern for Ukraine, as Minister Austin and others have observed,” it said in Monday’s analysis.
Restrain the momentum of the mercenaries
Ukraine says there is another good reason to continue fighting in Bakhmut if the best Russian combat units are used in the process.
The Ministry of Defense said on Monday that the commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces, Colonel Oleksandr Syrskyi, had once again visited Bakhmut’s defense units and had noted that “the enemy threw Wagner’s additional forces into battle” and that the force of Ukraine “caused significant damage to the enemy, destroyed a large amount of equipment, forced Wagner’s best strike units into battle, and reduced the enemy’s ability to strike.”
Defense analysts note that Wagner’s founder, Priogozhin himself, is now wary that the battle of Bakhmut could, according to ISW analysts, “severely degrade the best force. of the Wagner Corporation, depriving Russia of some of the most effective and most difficult to replace shock troops.”
Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman and close ally of Vladimir Putin, is the head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner and a host of other companies.
Mikhail Svetlov | beautiful pictures
“The Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is clearly concerned that his forces are being used in this way. Prigozhin issued several statements on March 5 and 6 indicating that he is concerned. fear that the Russian Ministry of Defense is fighting to the end in the Battle of Bakhmut Wagner and has his forces destroyed,” ISW analysts said.
For Ukraine, the severe deterioration or destruction of Wagner’s elite fighting force will have positive effects outside of the battlefield, ISW said, noting that growing status and status Prigozhin’s work in the Russian public sphere caused militarism and Wagner’s ideology to spread throughout Russia. .
“Severely damaging Prigozhin’s power and reputation in Russia would be an important achievement from the point of view of long-term prospects for restoring sanity in Russia. It is a goal in the interests of the United States as well. like Ukraine’s, and it increased the risk in the Battle of Bakhmut beyond the topographical problems and combat geometries,” said ISW.
