Forecasts are not favorable for many total eclipse seekers in Texas, with clouds expected tomorrow morning.
But the latest forecasts show this is a prime opportunity to experience the full impact of the total solar eclipse in a narrow range over parts of north Texas – one worth trying.
ONE Hail Mary Strategy for eclipse enthusiasts.
For those who don’t know this term:
In American football, the Hail Mary pass is a long forward pass with a low chance of completion, usually made in desperation. It is often used by the losing team when time is running out and there is no other realistic way to play in an attempt to score the winning point. The term “Hail Mary” comes from the final prayer for strength and help
Eclipse Strategy Guide “Hail Hail”
First, you need to know exactly where the total area will be (see below). It doesn’t pay to stay anywhere else. A band travels through San Antonia and Dallas.
The excellent and high-resolution NOAA/NWS HRRR model shows a narrow band of fewer clouds extending from southwest to northeast during the eclipse (1900 UTC) across Texas. I have indicated with blue ovals the general area of all clouds and less clouds.
What about the concurrent Eurocentric Model (see below)? The less cloudy slot would be shifted 50-100 miles southeast, with my proposed area again circled in blue.
Simulated infrared satellite images during this time also suggest an opening in extreme Northwest Texas (darker colors indicate less clouds)
If you are in Texas, you need to follow NOAA’s latest HRRR projections and change accordingly. But at this point, northeast Texas looks like the best place.
And now some important details about the cloud.
Not all clouds are equal in disrupting your eclipse viewing.
Dense low-level clouds made up of water droplets are the worst. But high ice clouds are not the problem. You can often observe eclipses through them…although they can obscure more subtle features like solar prominences.
Below are the Central European model’s cloud cover forecasts at key times for the different layers (as well as total cloud cover). By the way, this graphic is from the WeatherBell website…..this is more than worth the modest subscription cost).
There are no low or mid-level clouds over the northeast Texas portion of the eclipse path! Very good. There were some high clouds but thin areas were clearly visible.
Based on the latest model guidance, I believe people in northeast Texas can get a very good view of the eclipse. Get into position early, guided by the model’s output (available This And This).
Good luck everyone. Experiencing a total solar eclipse in person is an almost religious experience, worth the “Hail Mary” effort.
