Global warming to “commit” to 1.5C by 2025 (Possibly) – Can it be achieved?

Essay by Eric Worrall

According to a new paper, we have a 50% chance of “committed” to 1.5C global warming by 2025, rising to 66% by 2029. But the authors left a good big exit nice, perhaps in case that pause is long.

“Limited Time:” World will stop at 1.5°C warming by 2025 without major emissions cuts

Michael Mazengarb June 7, 2022

The world faces a greater than 50% risk of being locked in by global warming above 1.5°C unless greenhouse gas emissions can be significantly reduced by the end of the year, new research suggests. 2025, new research shows.

In one New paper published in Nature Climate ChangeResearchers from the University of Washington, Seattle, warn that the world needs an ‘abrupt halt’ to greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global warming from exceeding safe levels.

The study also confirms that the unrealistic 2050 targets are not enough to limit average global warming below 2°C, and that does not include such feedback loops that would accelerate global warming. increased temperature.

“Assuming an average emission trajectory, we find that we have committed to a peak warming of greater than 1.5°C with a 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029. The peak warming above 2.0°C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057,” the paper said.

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The abstract of the article;


Estimated geophysical commitment time to 1.5 and 2.0°C of global warming

MT Dvorak, KC Armor, DMW Frierson, C. Proistosescu, MB Baker & CJ Smith

Following the abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, a reduction in short-lived aerosols will result in a peak of warming within a decade, followed by a slowing of cooling as GHG concentrations decrease. . This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily overcome warming levels before reaching them. Here, we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate the change in temperature after emission cessation in 2021 and annually thereafter until 2080 along eight Socio-Economic Pathways. Shared Assembly (SSP). Assuming a medium emission trajectory (SSP2–4.5), we find that we have committed to a peak heating of more than 1.5°C with a probability of 42%, increasing to 66% by 2029 ( 340 GtCO2relative to 2021). The probability of peak warming above 2.0°C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Because the climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decrease, the committed warming of 1.5°C by 2100 will not occur with a probability of at least 66% until 2055.

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The article has a fee wall, which I find a bit hilarious – charges for information about an impending apocalypse.

What I find most intriguing, however, is the ambiguity of the prediction. We’re “committed” to 1.5C, but when we’ll actually experience this warming seems really nebulous – maybe in 2055, but we might have to wait until 2100.

Don’t forget people, science has been “solved”.


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