Johnson will visit Northern Ireland on Monday to hold emergency talks.
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LONDON – UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson survived a confidence vote on Monday night but discontent over his leadership is expected to continue to flare, with analysts suggesting that the His days in office are numbered.
Monday’s vote saw Johnson win the support of most of his Conservative Party lawmakers, but by a much smaller margin than his supporters had hoped.
The vote – triggered by his own lawmakers amid growing discontent in his leadership role – saw 211 Tory MPs vote in favor of the prime minister, while 148 vote against him.
Johnson needs a majority of 180 MPs to win the vote, but the 148 figure is worse than many expected and means more than 40% of his own lawmakers have no confidence in the prime minister – despite his efforts. him to win their support.
Johnson’s vulnerability is significantly relieved when compared to former leader Theresa May. She gained more support in a similar vote in 2018 – but resigned as prime minister just six months later.
Many MPs will now take a close look at public sentiment towards Johnson to assess whether he is the right leader to lead the party towards the next general election, due before January 2025. .
In the immediate future, support for the Conservative Party will be put to the test in two by-elections in West Yorkshire and Devon later this month.
Current party rules stipulate that Johnson – having survived a confidence vote – cannot face another for 12 months, but analysts say a revolt against Johnson could grow so large that those rules were changed.
“[The vote] a lot closer than Boris Johnson’s allies expected, or really, hoped,” Tim Bale, a professor of Politics at Queen Mary College of London, told CNBC on Monday.
“We think the Conservatives will lose both of those by-elections to some extent, to some extent, but we shouldn’t minimize the impact,” he said. “I think the metric is important to many MPs. are opinion polls, they will look at Boris Johnson’s personal ratings … and the gap between them and the Labor Party.”
If this gap with the main opposition party widens, Bale said, the Conservatives could “come back for more” and seek to challenge Johnson’s leadership again.
Numbered days’
While Johnson has shown no signs of being ready to step down – following a vote in which he called for unity and vowed to “rely on” – analysts say his leadership looks vulnerable.
According to Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank, his days were “numbered”.
“Based on current Conservative Party rules, Johnson cannot be challenged for another 12 months. However, this does not mean his government will return to business as usual,” Pickering said. know in a note last night.
“Although Johnson has survived to this day, it is difficult to see how he will be able to recover the initial support of MPs. Unless Johnson achieves a significant improvement in the MPs. polls in the coming months, it is likely that Johnson will face new challenges to his leadership role.” “
He added: “The risk of a worsening economy over the summer, as well as a bad outcome in the upcoming by-elections…could leave Johnson vulnerable.
Opposition parties in Westminster have long called for Boris Johnson to step down, with the “partisan” scandal – and whether Johnson deliberately misled Parliament (which he denies) about the collapse – leading members Prominent members of the Labor Party, Liberal Democratic Party and Scottish National Party (SNP) expressed their disbelief that Johnson had continued to refuse to resign.
Describing the prime minister as a “walking dead man”, Ian Blackford, leader of the SNP parliamentary group in the House of Commons and one of Johnson’s harshest critics, said “anyone else would be gone in no time”. now.”
“It’s not over yet, and I doubt the prime minister will leave at some point. I don’t believe he’s going to fight in the next election. We’ve got a prime minister who is a real one. duck,” he told CNBC’s Steve on Tuesday Sedgwick.
Can Johnson turn the tide?
Discontent with Johnson’s leadership ran high after a report was launched last month heavily criticizing the prime minister and other officials after some Covid-19 lock-out parties at Johnson’s office and residence in Downing Street.
However, those loyal to the prime minister still praise him for “getting Brexit done” and overseeing the government’s response to the Covid pandemic, especially the rapid procurement and deployment of a vaccine.
Johnson is now facing the task of appeasing rebel MPs, a challenge he could face with changes in fiscal and personnel policies, according to JP Morgan Economist Allan Monks.
“Although he has pledged to ‘rely on’ and likely stay in position for the foreseeable future, the vote has cast considerable doubt on his leadership tenure,” Monks noted. at the end of Monday.
“While we suspect there will be changes to existing party rules that stipulate Johnson cannot take on another leadership challenge for twelve months, he could still face a Another official challenge soon follows. And in the meantime, he could still be forced to resign if his inner circle turns against him,” Monks noted.
He added that Johnson is likely to announce new policy initiatives aimed at trying to win both the Conservatives and public opinion.
“The most obvious one is to use whatever time is left on fiscal policy to promise substantial tax cuts and extra giveaways, possibly at the Conservative Party conference in October,” he added. .
According to Monks, Johnson’s longer-term future may depend on how these measures are received by party members and voters.
