February Fantasy vs Reality | Watts up with that?

Guest posts by Willis Eschenbach

Yesterday, Eric Worrall published an interesting article titled “Forbes: Global warming is making February colder“. The title says it all. The Forbes article states:

Thanks to climate change, February is now the cruelest month

Jeff McMahon
senior collaborator
Jan 29, 2023.12:14 a.m. EST

The unusually frozen Februarys in Texas may not be so unusual anymore.

Early winter has warmed across North America, but late winter is a different story. Scientists have documented a cooling trend for more than 40 February, marked by the dangerous and increasingly common penetration of Arctic air deep into the United States.

Lie under scientific article speak:

Cold weather interruption

Despite the rapid warming that is a key sign of global climate change, especially in the Arctic, where temperatures are rising much higher than elsewhere in the world, the United States and other regions Other Northern Hemispheres have experienced a significant and increasingly frequent amount of extremely cold winter weather over the past four decades. cohen et al. observations and models combine to demonstrate that arctic change can be an important cause of a chain of processes involving what they call stratospheric polar vortex disruption, which eventually leading to periods of extreme cold in the northern mid-latitudes (see Coumou’s Perspective).


The Arctic is warming at twice the global average rate, and severe winter weather is reported to be on the rise in many densely populated mid-latitude areas, but there is no agreement on whether to do so. whether there is a physical connection between the two phenomena. We use observational analysis to show that little-known stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) disruptions related to wave reflection and SPV stretching are associated with extreme cold in regions of the world. parts of Asia and North America, including the recent February 2021 Texas cold snap and increasingly in the satellite age. We then use forced numerical modeling experiments with fall snow cover and Arctic sea ice trends to establish a physical link between Arctic variability and SPV elongation and related surface effects.


Now, I’m a data guy. So I went and took US February temperatures from four different datasets—Berkeley Earth, CERES, NOAA ClimDiv, and UAH MSU lower troposphere data. All but the CERES dataset covering the period 1979-2021 were covered by the study.

Here are the US February trends from the four data sets:

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies for the continental United States in February, four datasets.

Of all four datasets, February received warmerno colder… go picture.

So… how did they achieve? Well, they didn’t look at observational data.

Instead, they used a climate model fed from climate reanalysis model results plus snow cover data plus arctic sea ice data…and beyond , they used K-means clustering of geopotential altitude reanalyzed 100 hPa, multiple linear regression, a simplified method Betts-Miller convection diagram, idealized boundary layer diagram based on the Monin-Obukhov analogy theory, plate oceans, radiation scheme Rapid Radiation Transmission Model (RRTMG) and many other good juju.

What it looks like they didn’t do is… actually look at the real-world data instead of using the Bette-Midler convection scheme.

Having said that, the dying pains of climate madness are fun to watch… or they would be if climate alarmism weren’t so dangerous, especially for the poor. This kind of madness is driving energy prices sky high, and that’s it the most evil tax.

My best for everyone,



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