Miami-Dade Sheriff deputies walk in front of the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. federal court building. in Miami on Friday.
Gerald Herbert/AP
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Gerald Herbert/AP
Miami-Dade Sheriff deputies walk in front of the Wilkie D. Ferguson Jr. federal court building. in Miami on Friday.
Gerald Herbert/AP
When former President Donald Trump posted to his Truth Social platform on Friday, “See you at MIAMI THURSDAY!!!,” the call oddly repeated the tweets he used to summon. his supporters traveled to Washington, DC, ahead of January 1. June 6, 2021. Trump’s tweets subsequently helped draw tens of thousands of people to the nation’s capital.
For some, it is interpreted as an invitation to plan and participate in collective violence. But extremism researchers say that this time around, they see no sign of a detailed, large-scale and similar scheme surrounding Trump’s expected court appearance.
“One of the most striking things that came out on January 6th that we don’t see now is the tactical and logistical map,” said Benjamin Decker, CEO of Memetica, a threat intelligence group. of buildings, facilities, areas, exits”.
Decker said violent rhetoric on fringe platforms like far-right Telegram channels, 4chan, Gab, Truth Social, Gettr and Patriots.win has spiked since Trump’s indictment last week. “We are particularly concerned to see some of this language directed at Attorney General Merrick Garland and special counsel Jack Smith,” he said. But he said his desire to participate in a live, mass event was muted.
“There is a lot of paranoia among Trump supporters about being arrested,” he said. “And the cost of arrest and the possibility of jail time, that will still deter people… who might be wondering about being there to exercise their First Amendment rights. they are either there to participate in mob violence.”
On Monday, a rally in Miami organized by former Florida congressional candidate Laura Loomer appeared to attract more reporters than participants.
Jared Holt, senior research director at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, said several other groups appeared to be organizing Tuesday’s protests in court. But he noted that they are attracting skepticism from skeptics, who accuse the organizers of setting up a “false flag” or federal secret trap to arrest Trump supporters.
“So a lot of the people who organize these rallies have really emphasized to the people who are going to attend that they should be careful and watch out for people who might want to put them in a bad situation,” Holt said.
In addition to paranoia, the researchers say, in the years since January 6, Trump has also lost his shine in front of many at his former base. “I think there’s a general sense of Trump fatigue going on right now,” said Alex Friedfeld, of the Anti-Defamation League’s Anti-Extremism Center. “We don’t see them as vibrant as in recent times around the issues surrounding Trump.”
Instead, Friedfeld said the Trump establishment is now mostly focused on the next thing — specifically, anti-LGBTQ+ efforts. That campaign reflected a broader tactical shift on the far right over the past two years, moving away from organizing at the national level and refocusing on local government. Now, mother groups, religious organizations and extremist groups like the Proud Boys, are jointly pursuing an anti-inclusive program in schools, libraries and the state.
Decker and other extremism researchers admit that there are limits to what they can learn online about what far-right members can plan. Since January 6, many groups and individuals have turned to more private and encrypted communication channels. In addition, online surveillance can easily miss extremist individuals who are inspired by online conversations to act violently.
“Honestly, it can be hard to realize that with online analytics, without a really, really intrusive surveillance style and unlimited hours to look at it,” says Holt. “But it’s always been a risk around these events.”
