Expert College Rugby Selection 2021: Five lower-rated candidates are favorites, lower-rated team for selection group, confidence score group

In this post, we’ll share five value-driven picks that can give you an edge in the 2021 college football picks or trust scores. For a comprehensive compilation of our data-driven approach to dominating sinks, be sure to read college bowl pool strategy article.

This analysis is provided by TeamRankings, a website that has helped thousands of registrants win prizes in soccer leagues. To get customized selection recommendations for your 2021 college pool, check out Bowl Pick ’em Picks products.

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College Dish Picks 2021: The Year of Underrated Values

With up to 44 games, college bowling pools often offer some opportunity for smart players to get an edge. Here, we’ll discuss five picks that stand out as play value based on a combination of win rate and pick popularity. They range from underrated favorites to underrated unpopular teams capable of solving problems.

Deciding whether or not to pick these teams is a top consideration as you make your 2021 college selection. They represent some of the best opportunities to differentiate your entry and gain a spot above your opponents in the overall leaderboard. Winning a college tournament is all about taking calculated risks, and the teams below offer excellent risk-versus-reward profiles.

Remember that the best options for your particular team depend on many strategic factors, such as the number of entries on your team; whether it uses confidence scores; and award structure. If you want our game-by-game recommendations for your team, check it out Bowl Pick ’em Picks.

Note: Expected win rate and pick popularity data quoted below may vary between publication and start time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our products are updated several times a day with the latest information.

Favorite value

When a team has a preference to win but is picked by less of your team’s opponents than expected based on that team’s win rate, that’s as close as you can get to a pick. no need to argue.

Orange Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan

Spread: Georgia 8.5 points
Win rate: Georgia 79%
Popular: Georgia 68%

It’s rare for a national semi-final to give us a real value favorite, but that’s what we got this year. The combination of Georgia losing to Alabama in the SEC title game and Michigan beating Ohio State and Iowa in head-to-head weeks is how we got here.

Our strength ratings and odds providers both think Georgia is the better team. With nearly a third of entries choosing Michigan, you can make a smart game of value simply by staying with the popular Bulldogs here.

Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan vs. Nevada

Spread: Western Michigan up 3.5 points
Win rate: Western Michigan 64%
Popular: Western Michigan 30%

The public is very much focused on Nevada in this game, seeing the Wolves as the favorite they were when the bowling matches were announced. But then Nevada head coach Jay Norvell left to take the job at Colorado State, and QB Carson Strong, who could be an early-round draft pick in the NFL draft, took express uncertainty about playing in the game.

With the coach gone and the starting midfielder uncommitted, the betting market has changed. Western Michigan looks like a value play now because you’ll get the likes of it while most of the public is chasing Nevada.

LA Jimmy Kimmel Bowl: Oregon State vs. Wyoming

Spread: Oregon state up 7 points
Win rate: Oregon State 73%
Popular: Oregon State 52%

One of the best sources of value is choosing a team with a flamboyant win-lose record as the weaker team. Wyoming is 10-3 while Oregon State is 7-5, but that’s largely driven by close-match performance (Whitney State is 4-0 in single-point games) and schedule.

The contestants on the team are pretty distinct about who to pick on this team, so picking an Oregon State team that’s prioritized by an encounter is a smart move.

Unpopular bounces

Some games are almost evenly matched, but the public doesn’t see them as such, strongly choosing a side. In those games, you can try to differentiate your entry by picking the underselected team.

Cheez-It Bowl: Iowa State vs. Clemson

Spread: State of Iowa 1 point
Win rate: State of Iowa 50%
Popular: State of Iowa 29%

This is not your typical Clemson team. Instead of appearing in the national semi-finals, the tigers are competing in a bowl game named after a delicious savory cake. Clemson also has a better record (9-3) than his rival, Iowa State (7-5). However, the Cyclones’ 5 losses add up to 29 points.

You can diversify your selection from a wide variety of competitors by joining Iowa State with no additional risk.

Value Gambling

All underdog teams are not created equal. If you want to risk a nasty pick, you want to focus on the lower rated teams that are likely to win.

Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State

Spread: Appalachian State adds 3 points
Win rate: Western Kentucky 43%
Popular: Western Kentucky 25%

Appalachian State is a good Group of Five program, and it delivered another solid 10-3 season. But Western Kentucky also played pretty well, and it was only much better than its 8-5 record in a few plays.

The Hilltoppers lost two close games to Indiana, Army and Texas-San Antonio, and they also lost to Michigan State by 17. They played a tougher schedule than Appalachian State, but they only picked about 25% of the entries. even though they have a good chance to relieve sadness.

See all valuable bowl picks & plays for 2021

The five picks above provide just a few examples of how we use objective predictions and game theory to give players the edge in confidence bowl and point pool competitions. By understanding which favorites are underrated and which are underrated that the public is raving about, you can create a distinct selection panel that gives you the best chance of winning. win in your group.

We’ve compiled all the data and identified all of the 2021 teams as being undervalued by the public. You can see them all in the Data Grid feature of Bowl Pick ’em Picks products (as well as get our customized recommendations for which type you should choose in your pool).

You can also read more about them in our post on chance to choose top value for bowls in 2021.