LONDON – Accelerate sales of tram spurred a scramble for nickel, cobalt and lithium, pushing up the price of the battery materials to a multi-year high.
Moving away from internal combustion engine (ICE) cars for electric vehicles is part of the energy transition and carbon reduction efforts. emissions.
More than 6.36 million electric vehicles were sold last year globally compared with 3.10 million in 2020, data from Rho Motion shows. China accounted for half of the total last year and 40% the year before.
NICKEL
The nickel shortage has led to the attraction of stocks in London Stocks approved by the Metals Exchange, at 88,182 tonnes, are down 65% since April last year.
More notable are stocks of bagged powder, which is easily pulverized and dissolved in sulfuric acid to make nickel sulfate for batteries, at 65,676 tonnes, down 67% from April last year.
Most of these cookies have been shipped to China, which controls the electric vehicle supply chain, analysts say.
Wood Mackenzie analyst Andrew Mitchell estimated total nickel demand at 2.8 million tonnes last year, of which 69% was used to make stainless steel and 11% to make batteries, between 71% and 7. % respectively in 2020.
Mitchell expects the market share of battery nickel demand to grow to 13% this year. “We’re looking at a higher average price this year.”
Nickel hit $24,435 per tonne last week, the highest since August 2011. It is expected to decline later this year as supply increases.
Macquarie’s Jim Lennon expects nickel supplies to grow 14.5% this year to 3 million tonnes and a surplus of 43,000 tonnes from a deficit of 159,000 tonnes in 2021.
CHARCOAL
Coronavirus shutdowns in southern Africa have created bottlenecks that have delayed shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo to China, which accounts for more than 70% of global supply.
“China’s cobalt hydroxide imports grew only 2.5% to 82,100 tonnes last year from 2020, meaning domestic stocks have fallen significantly,” said Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) analyst Caspar Rawles. .
BMI projects total cobalt demand at 177,500 tonnes this year, of which 104,000 tonnes will be consumed by the battery sector.
Cobalt prices around $70,000/ton are the highest since July 2018. Traders expect further increases as Chinese consumers re-supply.
LITHIUM
The deficit pushed lithium carbonate prices to a record high above $50,000 a tonne in China, according to BMI.
Lithium carbonate is used for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Sales of electric vehicles using this type of battery have grown rapidly in China.
The lack of capacity investment due to sliding prices in the three years to 2021 means that budget deficits are likely to occur for a number of years.
“Supply is having a hard time keeping up with demand, given the long time it takes to bring the first product to market from a lithium source,” said BMI analyst George Miller. know.
Electric vehicle batteries can use lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide. The industry often talks about lithium carbonate equivalents (LCEs) containing both.
BMI estimates demand for lithium carbonate equivalents at 610,000 tonnes this year, up from 490,000 tonnes last year and a 26,000 tonnes shortfall compared with a shortfall of 12,000 tonnes.
