Eddie Mac’s Book 2: Essential Quality Has Classic Look; Life Is Good (Dirt Mile), Jackie’s Warrior (Sprint) Solid Picks
By Ed McNamara
Knicks Go (publish 5, 5-2) not solely is operating in opposition to one of the best subject he’s ever confronted, he’s additionally operating in opposition to latest historical past Saturday at Del Mar.
Knicks Go on the Whitney Stakes -Photograph Courtesy of Dom Napolitano
Coach Brad Cox’s grey streak is the morning-line favourite to go wire to wire at 1 1/4 miles, a distance he’s by no means tried. Of the final six Breeders’ Cup Traditional (G1) winners, solely Gun Runner hadn’t received at 10 furlongs, however he’d been within the cash 3 times. The final 11 Traditional champions had gone 1 1/4 at the least as soon as, and all however Bayern completed second or third.
Can Knicks Go grasp a brand new trick on the fly in opposition to one of many deepest, most gifted Traditional fields ever assembled? Cox is cautiously optimistic.
“There’s another pace within the race,” he mentioned, “however I feel he’s the pace of the pace, and we’re not going to take that away from him. We’re going to ask him to expire of there and set up place early, and what anybody else does is as much as them.
“But we are going to be very aggressive, and hopefully he gets the lead going into the first turn and he’s able to clear off. I think that gives him his best opportunity to win.”
He’s right, but can Knicks Go and rider Joel Rosario withstand pace pressure from Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Medina Spirit (post 8, 4-1), Hot Rod Charlie (post 3, 4-1) and possibly Art Collector (post 6, 8-1)? If not, and Knicks Go cracks leaving the eighth pole, Cox could still win the Classic. His other star is Essential Quality (post 4, 3-1), a bad-trip fourth in the Kentucky Derby away from being 9-for-9 lifetime. I see Luis Saez keeping Essential Quality within striking distance of the pace before surging to the lead in the final furlong.
“If they’re head and head and going fast early, it definitely plays toward Essential Quality,” Cox said. “If it’s a hot pace, he can sit off and come running. And if it’s a soft pace, he can sit close. He looks tremendous, and he’s doing well. He never really gets tired, and he keeps coming and coming.”
My projection: Knicks Go is dogged for a mile by Medina Spirit, who compromises his own chances by wearing down Knicks Go. Hot Rod Charlie takes the lead leaving the eighth pole before Essential Quality grinds past him 100 yards from the finish in a replay of their stretch duel in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Knicks Go fades to fourth, as he did in the Saudi Cup and the Met Mile (G1).
Post time for the Classic in 8:40 p.m. ET
$1 million Dirt Mile (G1), 3-year-olds and up
Post time: 4:19 p.m. (race 6)
I couldn’t find a reason to challenge Life Is Good (post 5, 4-5), perhaps the likeliest winner of Breeders’ Cup weekend. He’s a neck away from being 5-for-5, and that loss was against superstar sprinter Jackie’s Warrior, who probably will be odds-on in the Sprint. Life Is Good, who beat Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit twice during the winter, was expected to be the Derby favorite until a minor injury sidelined him.
Met Mile hero Silver State (post 1, 7-2) has two wins at the distance and could capitalize if Life Is Good isn’t himself. There’s been buzz for Ginobili (post 9, 4-1). He’s 3-for-4 at Del Mar, including a 9 3/4-length romp at a mile, but that was in a $40,000 optional claimer, and this is a massive jump in class.
Jackie’s Warrior – Photo Courtesy of Dom Napolitano
$2 million Sprint (G1), 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up
Post time: 5:38 p.m. (race 8)
Heavy favorite Jackie’s Warrior (post 2, 6-5) is 2-for-2 at 6 furlongs and a neck shy of being 9-for-9 around one turn. He’s the fastest of the fast, and if he gets away cleanly, it will be shocking if he gets caught. His only loss in a sprint came after a troubled start in the 7-furlong Woody Stephens on Belmont day, and I’m not expecting that to happen again. I’ll be playing him on top of Aloha West (post 5, 8-1), who can complete the exacta if he repeats his 11 4/5-second late surge last out at Keeneland. Local hope Dr. Schivel (post 9, 4-1) is a horse-for-course — 3-for-3 at Del Mar, 4-for-4 at this distance — but he’s never faced an opponent like Jackie’s Warrior.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning journalist who has been writing about thoroughbred racing for 35 years. He has handicapped races for ESPN.com, Newsday and The Document of New Jersey. He’s the writer of “Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown” and co-author of “The Most Wonderful Crown,” a chronicle of the primary 12 Triple Crown champions.
