For Frontier Airlines CEO Barry Biffle, a new frontier lies right in front of ultra-low-cost airline (ULCC).
With its biggest competitor – Spirit – just approved a groundbreaking JetBlue acquisitionFrontier is facing a probable new operating environment in which it is the largest ULCC in the United States.
“That would make us the first ULCC in the nation,” Biffle told TPG in a recent interview in Tampa, where the airline unveils its first Airbus A321neo, with a capacity of 240 passengers. “95% capacity in the US would cost us 30% to 80% more. So we didn’t seem like a natural competitor at the time.”
This is a good time to be a Biffle, despite the recent demise of airline agreement to buy Spiritwas derailed by JetBlue’s unsolicited offer.
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High demand for travel despite concerns about economic recession emerge in the larger economy, and the JetBlue merger would knock Spirit out of Frontier, leaving Denver-based ULCC free to focus on competing with larger legacy airlines and of course including the extended JetBlue.
While the merger still needs regulatory approval – which is far from allowed – Biffle, Frontier and the airline’s parent company Indigo Partners must think about long-term expansion.
Frontier alone has 226 aircraft on order, expected to be delivered by the end of the decade, while Indigo-owned airlines have a total of 743 outstanding orders of Airbus as of the end of September, according to Airbus data.
Airlines are unlikely to experience significant growth since the pandemic, partly because supply chains have been disrupted, meaning aircraft manufacturers have been unable to produce new planes fast enough to meet demand.
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That’s really what led to bidding war with Spirit Airlines – both Frontier and JetBlue argues that by acquiring Spirit, they can effectively advance their development plans.
For Frontier, 226 new planes – some of which will replace older ones – provide an avenue for expansion. In theory, Indigo could also reallocate orders to its other carriers if it sees a better opportunity from handing those planes over to Frontier.
“We’re growing as fast as we can,” Biffle said, dismissing the possibility that there are plans to buy another airline when the Spirit deal is out of reach.
“There may be other M&A (mergers and acquisitions) targets at some point, but for now, we’re basically going to double our size within four years and we’ll triple its size by the end of the decade.”
“We have no plans right now,” he added.
Western Border (Europe)
But while Frontier’s plane order book may speak to its overall growth ambitions and sustainability goals – Airbus says its “new” planes are about 20% more efficient than narrow ones. previous generation – 18 of those ordered aircraft stand out.
Frontier has 18 of Airbus’ long-range 321neo variants, A321XLR (for “long range xtra”) on order, with first deliveries scheduled for 2026.
The XLR offers a higher maximum takeoff weight than the anchor, which means it can take off with more fuel, allowing for greater range. Airbus lists the XLR’s operating range as 4,700 nautical miles (about 5,400 miles), compared to the regular A321neo’s 3,500 nautical miles (just over 4,000 miles), although it’s worth noting that the aircraft has yet to be certified. , so the exact approved range remains uncertain. With the same airframe dimensions, the Frontier can accommodate 240 passengers in the same tight configuration it has on the newly delivered A321neo.
According to Biffle, the XLR will help the airline expand beyond the continental United States and even North America.
“Europe, Hawaii and South America,” Biffle replied when asked about the airline’s plans for the XLR. “We are evaluating [them]. “
Notably, Indigo owns airlines in Europe – Wizz Air – and South America – JetSMART – in theory, it would be possible to link or consortium with Frontier to provide an even larger low-cost network, although Biffle did not say whether such a plan would be implemented.
While Frontier offers point-to-point service throughout the US, European routes will be concentrated from the Northeast.
“Many places in the northeastern United States can go to Europe,” says Biffle.
“We’re in Boston,” he added, “we’re in Philadelphia, we’re in Islip in New York.”
Notably, the plane’s range will likely drop below the certified maximum if Frontier fills it with 240 seats. The airline also needs to figure out how to allow cabin crew to have comfortable rest areas for pilots on longer flights.
However, even in a high power setting, the XLR’s range will cover most of Europe from the Northeast. In theory, the XLR could even reach London, Paris or other destinations in Western European cities further south or west of the United States, such as Florida, St. Louis or Kansas City.
Biffle did not say what destinations the airline was exploring and such practical considerations would come closer to the plane’s deliveries. However, he mentioned one possibility.
“All of Ireland,” he said, noting that some Irish airports offer pre-clearance by US customs before boarding a flight to the US, meaning Frontier can operate to smaller airports. – such as Islip – there is no customs facility or passport control.
In the shorter term, try what works
For the foreseeable future, however, Biffle plans to let Frontier continue to do what it knows best: adding services to places where there’s high demand.
“We will continue to grow as the whole country goes on holiday,” said Biffle. “Our three biggest airports are Vegas, Orlando and Denver. There’s a huge opportunity for growth in Vegas.”
Despite its expansion plans, Frontier has become known for starting new routes only to pull them abruptly, sometimes withdrawing from the market altogether. For example, the airline canceled old service from New Castle Airport (ILG) near Wilmington, Delaware, to Orlando (MCO), leaving Deleware single without any commercial air service.
While other airlines can give the roadmap some time to perfect, Frontier prefers to cut losses quickly and redeploy its capacity somewhere more profitable.
“The best trait of a network planner is not identifying a good path—that is, spotting the loser and killing it,” says Biffle. “You can lose a lot of money justifying that it’s ‘strategy,’ or all of these reasons why you should fly something.”
“Those who give [routes] two or three years, that’s called expect marketing. ‘I expect it will work,” he added. If we don’t make money within a year, we’re gone. “
Even with that said, Biffle has objected to the airline’s characterization of being impatient or having too little loyalty to the markets it enters.
“Everybody is focused on us canceling a lot of routes, but we actually started a lot of lines,” he said. “If you measure over a multi-year period, our hit rate is actually one of the best in the industry.”
With a roadmap to triple in size by 2030, one thing is clear: Frontier’s Roadmap is poised to grow, and there’s much more to come.
