Climate change increases risk of tree death – Is it up because of it?

news7g05/12/2022

6 2 minutes read

Climate change increases risk of tree death - Is it up because of it?

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

The Forest of Stress in the American West — **PICTURE DESCRIPTION: STRONG FOREST IN THE WEST OF THE USA** see more CREDIT: WILLIAM ANDEREGG

Planting trees seems like a good thing for the environment. After all, trees absorb carbon dioxide, offsetting some of the emissions that cause climate change.

But all the carbon in trees and forests worldwide can be thrown back into the atmosphere if trees are burned in a wildfire. Trees also stop removing carbon dioxide from the air if they die due to drought or insect damage.

According to a new study at Eco lettermakes relying on forests to absorb carbon emissions a much riskier prospect.

“The forests of the United States may look completely different by the end of this century,” said William Anderegg, lead author of the study and an associate professor in the University of Utah’s School of Biological Sciences. “More severe and frequent fires and disturbances have a huge impact on our landscape. We are likely to lose forests in some areas of the Western United States as a result of these disturbances, but much of this depends on how quickly we address climate change.”

Wildfires, drought and insects

The researchers modeled the risk of tree death from fire, climate stress (heat and/or drought), and insect damage to forests across the United States, predicting the risks How that risk might increase throughout the 21st century.

See their findings in an interactive map this.

By 2099, models suggest that the risk of US wildfires could increase by 4 to 14 times, depending on different carbon emission scenarios. The risk of climate stress-related tree death and insect mortality could almost double in the same period.

But in those same models, human actions to tackle climate change make a lot of sense – reducing the severity of climate change dramatically reduces wildfires, droughts and insect deaths. caused by infection.

“Climate change will exacerbate these three major disturbances in the United States,” Anderegg said. “We have seen devastating fire seasons of increasing severity over the past few years. All in all, we think the Western US will be hardest hit by all three of these. And they are also linked. Really hot and dry years, due to climate change, tend to cause more fires, climate tree deaths and insect outbreaks. But we also have a chance here. Tackling climate change quickly can help keep our forests and landscapes healthy.”

Research published in Eco letter and is supported by the National Science Foundation, the United States Department of Agriculture, the David and Lucille Packard Foundation, and Microsoft’s AI for Earth.

Once published, find the full study this.