Shanghai’s main street was empty during the evening rush hour on Thursday. December 22, 2022, in the midst of a wave of Covid infections.
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BEIJING — It’s been about two weeks since mainland China abruptly ended most of its Covid control measures, but the country still has a long way to go to return to its pre-pandemic normal.
According to Baidu data, in the major cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen, Friday morning rush hour traffic is extremely sparse.
According to Wind Information, subway ridership in major cities as of Thursday remained below normal.
“Significantly larger-than-expected COVID waves are leading to voluntary social distancing, which is showing up in pathways,” S&P Global Ratings analysts said in a report on Wednesday. deserted in Beijing in mid-December.”
“While this wave may ease in the coming weeks, it is possible to flare up again around the Lunar New Year in late January 2023,” the analysts said. “This will be the first time in nearly three years that mass migration will continue in China as families gather.”
On December 7, Chinese authorities removed virus testing and health code checks for domestic travel, along with other easing measures to an increasingly strict policy. Strictly no Covid. Meanwhile, local infections began to increase, especially in Beijing.
Within a week, more than 60% of employees of a Beijing-based company tested positive for Covid, said Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
“Two weeks later, we can get everyone back in the office,” he said Friday. “We basically went down really fast. It looks like we’re recovering very quickly.”
Baidu data showed Friday morning traffic in Beijing recovered slightly from a week ago, putting the capital back in first place as the nation’s most congested. But the figures show that congestion in Beijing is still about 25% lower than last year.
The lifting of strict COVID-related restrictions is positive for China’s economic activities. However, a resurgence of infections may reduce the increase.
In a survey of nearly 200 AmCham China members from December 16 to 19, more than 60% of respondents said they expected the impact of the latest Covid outbreak to end in a few days. up to three months, Hart said.
Hart said respondents did not report major supply chain problems, noting that many companies are likely to hold more inventory following disruptions caused by the Shanghai lockdown earlier in the day. this year.
However, he said that most respondents said at this point they could not predict the long-term impact of the outbreak on their business.
As for foreign direct investment into China, Hart said he expected it to be about a year after tourism fully reopens for that investment to begin to recover.
China has yet to change its quarantine policy for international visitors to the mainland. Those arriving now need to be quarantined for five days at a centralized facility, followed by three days at home.
Tourism is increasing
Other data shows a reception in domestic tourism.
Book flights out of Beijing from Monday to Wednesday up 38% compared with a week earlier, while the economy prices increased by 20%, according to Qunar data cited by Chinese media Sina Finance. CNBC was unable to independently confirm the report.
From December 7 to December 18, flight bookings to the tropical island province of Hainan increased 68% month-on-month, said Chinese travel website Trip.com. Trip.com said hotel bookings in Hainan last week increased by 20% from the previous week.
While the city of Beijing appears to be emerging from the Covid wave, outbreaks have hit other parts of the country.
Klaus Zenkel, vice president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China and president of the South China division, said that in the southern cities of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, there were very few people on the streets. He estimates road traffic has dropped by 40%, which means the infection rate is around 60%.
Most companies are following guidance to only ask employees to stay home if they have a fever or severe symptoms of Covid, Zenkel said on Thursday. “It means [the] The workforce will be reduced, just hope not all get sick at the same time.”
Missing data
There are few official figures on the rise in infections or deaths from China’s latest Covid outbreak.
The World Health Organization’s director of emergencies Mike Ryan said in a briefing on Wednesday that China is likely not to be able to keep up with the surge in infections.
“In the current case in China, what is being reported is a relatively low number of hospitalizations or ICU cases, while there are reports that those ICUs are overcrowded,” Ryan said. . .
“In a fast-moving wave, you might have reported three days ago that your hospital was fine,” he said. “This morning might not be good because the wave hits and suddenly you’re highly contagious.”
Most people tested themselves for the virus after eliminating most of the required testing. Last week, the National Health Commission also stopped reporting asymptomatic cases.
“The government has [holding] the daily press conferences tell you how many people have been infected,” said Hart of AmCham. “After that, they had no information.”
He said the lack of official announcement made the rumors more contagious. Hart also said interactions with government groups showed their offices had been infected, and that working from home was rolling out at a similar rate to what businesses had seen.
