Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo is a fascinating matchup for a number of reasons.
Alvarez will be defending his undisputed 168-pound championship against the smaller of the Charlo twins on pay-per-view Sept. 30 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, one of the biggest fights in a big year for boxing.
The matchup is pivotal in the careers of both men, each of whom has advantages and disadvantages going into the battle.
Here are five early questions – and answers – going into the event.
Is the size difference an important factor?
Probably. The fact that Charlo, the undisputed junior middleweight champ, is moving up two weight classes – 154 pounds to 168 – to face a future Hall of Famer who is still only 33 years old is daunting. Charlo is used to punching and getting punched by junior middleweights, not super middleweights with elite ability and knockout power. The move by Charlo is risky to say the least. At the same time, if Alvarez has slipped significantly, size and strength might not be relevant. Charlo is immensely talented. Plus, he probably would’ve started campaigning at middleweight several fights ago if his brother wasn’t in that division. Indeed, he could be a natural 160-pounder at this point, meaning the jump to 168 might not be as significant. And, finally, he’s taller than Alvarez and didn’t look appreciably thinner than his opponent when they were face to face at two news conferences. Of course, we’ll have a better handle on the size difference when they meet – without shirts – at the weigh-in and then in the ring.
Is Alvarez in decline?
Probably, but not necessarily to the extent that he will lose to Charlo. Alvarez has admitted that he looked subpar in his last two fights, decisions over faded rival Gennadiy Golovkin in their third fight and John Ryder. The question is why, assuming there’s a clear-cut answer. The Mexican star’s critics believe he has slowed down after 18 years and dozens of training camps as a pro even though he’s only 33, the same age as Charlo and two years younger than Terence Crawford. They are probably right, at least to some extent. However, mitigating circumstances might’ve contributed to Alvarez’s relatively poor performances. One, the right-hander fought with an injured left wrist, which was surgically repaired after the Ryder fight. And, two, he probably wasn’t properly motivated for either fight. He resisted fighting Triple-G a third time because he considered their rivalry finished business and it’s difficult to get up for a nondescript opponent like Ryder. He reportedly is healthy and is obviously determined to prove his doubters wrong on Sept. 30.
Does the style matchup favor a particular fighter?
Yes. Alvarez. Charlo is an excellent, athletic boxer but he’s not the type to stick and move for 12 rounds in hopes of winning a decision. His instinct is to attack, which has worked well against even the best 154-pounders. The problem for him in this fight is that he will open himself up to counters against a seasoned, naturally bigger, hard-punching opponent. It might take only one or two good shots for Alvarez to end the smaller man’s night or at least begin the process of breaking him down. That doesn’t mean that Charlo is necessarily doomed. He’s a good boxer with elite punching power himself, at least at 154 pounds. It’s not difficult to imagine him boxing well, setting up and landing clean, perhaps damaging shots and avoiding his opponent’s biggest blows, particularly if Alvarez is in decline. To be clear, though: Charlo has never tangled with anyone like Alvarez in terms of both ability and size. He had better fight with carefully calculated aggression or he could pay a steep price.
What does this fight mean to both men?
A lot, particularly to Alvarez. The longtime face of boxing appears to be at a crossroads. If he wins, he could restore some of the respect he lost after his setback against Dmitry Bivol and uninspired performances in his last two fights. If he loses, particularly if it’s decisive, he could be finished as a top figure in the sport. He would have no titles and fall off all reputable pound-for-pound lists, meaning he’d no longer be among the best of the best. He must win this fight to preserve what he has built over the past decade-plus. Charlo? He can take his first defeat and say, “Hey, I had the courage to take a big risk and it just didn’t work out.” He presumably would then drop back down to 154 or 160 and continue to face the toughest challenges in those divisions as a much richer man. On thing, though: The showdown with Alvarez is Charlo’s opportunity to prove he’s a transcendent fighter. If he falls short, he might be remembered as a guy who couldn’t quite get to the top.
Who is going to win?
Alvarez. Charlo’s best hope in this fight would be that his counterpart is genuinely in decline, which is a possibility. If Alvarez performs like he did against Golovkin and Ryder, he could be outboxed or even stopped by a fighter of Charlo’s ability and power. However, I believe that we’ll see a better version of Alvarez on Sept. 30. He appears to be healthy for the first time in a few years and a do-or-die scenario almost certainly will have lit a fire underneath him. He probably will have some problems with Charlo’s quickness and athleticism early in the fight but he’ll methodically cut off the ring and take advantage of the opportunities that will result from Charlo’s moments of aggression by landing hard, accurate counters. Remember: Charlo can be hit. He was outboxed by Tony Harrison and had trouble with Brian Castano in his first fights with them, although he crushed them in rematches. And Alvarez punches much harder than any 154-pounder. His shots probably will wear Charlo down and set him up for a late knockout. Prediction: Alvarez KO 9.
