The thirty eighth working of the $6 million, Grade 1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic set for Saturday at Del Mar drew a discipline of 9, together with 2021 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Medina Spirit, who enters the race off a win final month within the Grade 2 Awesome Again Stakes. Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, who completed third and fourth within the Derby, respectively, have each come a great distance since then as Sizzling Rod Charlie gained the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Important High quality gained the Grade 1 Runhappy Travers Stakes of their most up-to-date races. One other with high credentials is Art Collector, winner of the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes final month, which was his third straight stakes victory. Then there’s Max Player, using a two-race profitable streak on the 1 ¼-mile Traditional distance consisting of the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July adopted by the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in September.
The aforementioned 5 horses are more likely to be chasing Knicks Go from the outset. Using a three-race profitable streak together with the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, Knicks Go is a 5-year-old with discipline excessive earnings of $5.5 million and is unlikely to yield to any of his opponents from the second the gates open. Stilleto Boy earned the largest stakes win of his profession when profitable the Iowa Derby in July however has been overwhelmed soundly by Medina Spirit in two straight races. Equally, Express Train, who gained the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July at Del Mar, completed seven lengths behind Medina Spirit within the Superior Once more. Tripoli rounds out the sphere. Winner of the Grade 1 TVG Pacific Classic in August, he was overwhelmed 8 ¼ lengths whereas by no means threatening within the Superior Once more final month.
Prime three win contenders (in likelihood/desire order):
Knicks Go has an edge over the opposite eight horses on this yr’s Breeders’ Cup Traditional due to his working type. Knicks Go has had the lead from the beginning in his final eight races within the U.S., leading to seven wins. As such, the trainers of the opposite eight horses can strategize all they need about how the race will be gained by their costs, however one factor is definite and that’s if any of the opposite entrants attempt to combat for the early lead with Knicks Go they’re more likely to be severely compromising their very own possibilities of success. However, if Knicks Go is left to run unabated on the entrance finish, he’s more likely to get into a gradual rhythm and won’t enable another horse to get inside a size of him within the final quarter of a mile. Since getting back from a visit midway internationally to compete within the Saudi Cup in February and being wanting 100% when fourth within the Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap in June, Knicks Go has reeled off three straight spectacular victories with Equibase Pace Figures of 118, 117 and 115. Jockey Joel Rosario, who has been within the saddle aboard Knicks Go for his final six wins, matches the horse completely by permitting him to get right into a fluid stride and do his factor – which as soon as once more within the Breeders’ Cup Traditional must be to regulate the tempo on quick fractions from the beginning and by no means look again.
Art Collector and Max Player are each more likely to be taking over stalking positions behind Knicks Go shortly after the beginning as that has been their profitable technique in profitable key Traditional prep races this summer time and fall. Artwork Collector has gained three straight since transferring to the care of Corridor of Fame coach Bill Mott final summer time, with every effort higher than the remainder. After profitable the Alydar Stakes in August with a 110 determine, Artwork Collector improved to 115 within the Charles Town Classic after which to a career-best 120-figure effort within the Woodward Stakes final month. Though he led from begin to end in two of these three races, within the Charles City Traditional Artwork Collector stalked the early chief in second earlier than forging to the entrance within the final eighth of a mile. Due to this fact, if Knicks Go will be handed within the last phases of this race, Artwork Collector is a type of who could possibly go by the early chief and publish the upset.
Max Participant has additionally run career-best races in his most up-to-date begins. After getting back from an 11th-place end within the Saudi Cup, Max Participant completed a poor sixth within the Pimlico Special Match Series Stakes in Might however rebounded properly to win the Suburban Stakes on the mile-and-a-quarter distance of the Traditional in July. He earned a career-best 113 determine within the Suburban, after which duplicated it when he gained the Jockey Membership Gold Cup in September. In each races, Max Participant sat in second within the early phases then pounced on the chief earlier than drawing off, doing so by 4 lengths within the Jockey Membership Gold Cup. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. was aboard Max Participant in each of these wins and can trip him once more within the Traditional.
About the remainder:
Essential Quality is 8-for-9 in his profession, his lone defeat coming when a troubled fourth within the Kentucky Derby. Though overwhelmed only one size by Medina Spirit for the win and only a head by Sizzling Rod Charlie for third place, Important High quality proved he belonged with the most effective of his age group within the Derby. He constructed on that effort by profitable the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets 5 weeks later after which the Jim Dandy Stakes on the finish of July, incomes very comparable Equibase Pace Figures of 109 and 107, respectively. Tackling 1 ¼ miles within the Travers Stakes in August, Important High quality as soon as once more ran professionally whereas battling head and head with Midnight Bourbon for the final eighth of a mile, popping out on high by a neck and incomes a 109 determine. That 109 determine may be the problem with this gifted colt within the Traditional. Not solely is Important High quality getting back from the longest interval of remainder of any horse within the discipline (greater than two months), he additionally has not improved his figures all through his 3-year-old marketing campaign. Vital enchancment is required to get to the 118- to 120-figure threshold it will take to win this race.
Hot Rod Charlie ran the most effective race of his profession when victorious within the Pennsylvania Derby close to the tip of September, incomes a 120 determine within the course of whereas simply defeating Midnight Bourbon, who had battled right down to the wire with Important High quality one month earlier. However, Sizzling Rod Charlie places blinkers again on for the Traditional and it seems to me that when sporting blinkers for six straight races from October of final yr by the Belmont Stakes final summer time he both ran evenly within the final eighth of a mile or misplaced floor to the winner within the last phases. The primary of two examples of that got here when he was solely a head behind Important High quality in final yr’s TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA coming into the stretch earlier than ending up three-quarters of a size behind on the end, and the newer one occurred was when he was a head behind Important High quality within the Belmont Stakes with an eighth of a mile to run however 1 ¼ lengths behind him on the finish.
Subsequent we come to Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit. By no means worse than third in 9 profession begins, Medina Spirit ran the most effective race of his profession within the Derby with a 110 determine. After regressing to a a lot decrease 95 determine effort when third within the Preakness Stakes off of two weeks relaxation, Medina Spirit took three months off and gained the non-graded Shared Perception Stakes at Del Mar in August with a 105 determine. After that, he improved to win the Superior Once more Stakes final month and cycled again to the 110 determine he earned within the Derby. The issue Medina Spirit could have on this yr’s Traditional is he has taken the early lead in his final 4 races, starting with the Derby. Medina Spirit is unlikely to run as quick within the early phases as Knicks Go, and which means he might be requested to take up a stalking place within the Traditional. If his earlier efforts score off the tempo are any indication, Medina Spirit merely isn’t pretty much as good from that place as he’s on the lead. For instance, when he stalked in fourth throughout the early phases of the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby in April, Medina Spirit might solely handle to maneuver as much as second on the finish and was overwhelmed by 4 ¼ lengths. The identical factor occurred in his race previous to the Santa Anita Derby when he rated in second early on and stayed in that spot whereas eight lengths behind winner Life Is Good within the San Felipe Stakes.
Tripoli gained the 1 ¼-mile Pacific Traditional Stakes in August with a 109 determine, and he earned 106 and 109 figures earlier to that. Then he regressed considerably within the Superior Once more when he completed fourth with a 98 determine. As such, it doesn’t seem seemingly that he can cope with the highest horses on this race. Equally, Express Train ran his greatest race of 2021 when profitable the San Diego Handicap in July with a 107 determine, however as he’s coming into this race off sixth- and third-place finishes with 95 and 99 figures he has a tall order forward of him to be aggressive. Stilleto Boy completed second by 5 lengths to Medina Spirit within the Superior Once more with a 102 determine, and he ran the most effective race of his profession with a 106 determine within the Iowa Derby in July, however he has by no means run so far as he’ll within the Traditional and seems to be up towards it when it comes to a top-three inserting.
You may get Ellis’ full card detailed evaluation and betting suggestions for all of the races at Del Mar on Breeders’ Cup Weekend (Friday Nov. 5 and Saturday Nov. 6), at Equibase.com.
