Israeli forces were on high alert Friday to guard against a retaliatory strike by Iran or its proxies, which analysts and officials warned could prompt a response by Israel and potentially spark wider conflict in the region.
Iran is expected to launch an attack as soon as this weekend in retaliation for the April 1 airstrike in which warplanes attacked the Iranian Embassy building in Damascus, killing three generals. commanders and other commanders, US and Iranian officials said on Friday.
Military analysts say neither Israel nor Iran is interested in provoking a full-scale war that could draw in the United States, but miscalculations on each side’s red lines could lead to an escalation. conflict ladder.
Analysts said Iran’s reaction was inevitable given the high status of one of the generals killed in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
“For every wise player, there comes a time when the cost-benefit calculation changes and all strategies are designed,” said Mahdi Mohammadi, chief adviser to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, president of the Iranian Parliament. repeat”. “For Iran, that moment was the attack in Damascus.”
Israel hopes Iran will strike in a way that helps it save face, but is measured enough not to provoke an even fiercer counterattack, analysts said. Amos Gilead, a retired Israeli general, said the Iranians “don’t want a total war.” “So they can attack targets that enable them to claim that they have achieved a great victory.”
Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence officer, said Iran and Israel do not maintain any direct, official communication channels, making the opportunity for each side to misunderstand the other’s intentions much greater.
US analysts and intelligence officials expect Iran to attack multiple targets inside Israel in the next few days, said three US officials who requested anonymity to discuss intelligence matters.
Where these attacks are aimed, where they will be launched from, who might carry them out, and the damage they are expected to cause remain secret to everyone except highest levels of the Iranian government and military.
But Iran’s answers to those questions will determine the scale and scope of Israel’s response, said Mr. Citrinowicz, a fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
He said the country’s leaders most likely hope to use their offensive to restore some deterrence following the killing of General Zahedi in Syria. (Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for that attack, but some Israeli officials confirmed country’s participation in The New York Times.)
Such an Iranian response could mean an attack from Iranian territory instead of through Iranian territory, Citrinowicz said. proxy forces in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
Israel has warned that an attack launched from inside Iran against targets inside Israel would be considered an escalation requiring a response.
Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesman, said on Thursday such an attack would be “clear evidence of Iran’s intention to escalate tensions in the Middle East and stop hiding behind proxy forces.” responsibility”.
Last week, in anticipation of an Iranian attack, the Israeli military announced that additional reserve units had been mobilized to strengthen Israel’s air defense system and combat soldiers preparing for leave had been command to continue deployment.
Mr. Citrinowicz said that if Iran launches an attack from its soil, Israel’s air defense force will detect drones or cruise missiles long before they reach the target, creating an opportunity to opportunity for Israeli forces to destroy them.
A scarier scenario, he said, would be a surface-to-surface ballistic missile, which would arrive in a matter of minutes. Israel has developed several defense systems – such as the Arrow system – to intercept long-range missiles.
“If we can stop most of what is coming, that would be great — it would reduce our need for an aggressive response,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.
Farnaz Fassihi Report contributions.
