By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
One of the best races to take place over Independence Day weekend is the $750,000 Stephen Foster S. (G2) at Churchill Downs.
The 1/8 mile race won the “Win and You’re In” award for Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which is not surprising given first-class horses like Black Tie Affair (1991), Awesome Again (1998), Saint Liam (2005), Blame (2010) and Gun Runner (2017) all completed the Stephen Foster/Breeders’ Cup Classic double.
Saturday’s Stephen Foster run attracted a small but deep field of seven horses. Five are proven graded stake winners and two won at the Grade 1 level, so there are plenty of talented candidates to choose from.
Some people will be interested in supporting # 6 Mandaloun (2-1), and understandably so. The morning favorites hit a perhaps unprecedented feat of winning two Class 1 races through elimination last year, edging past the Kentucky (G1) circuit at Churchill Downs and Haskell S. ( G1) at Monmouth Park after passing second rope in both races.
The question is, can Mandaloun completely beat tough opponents? He started 2022 with a win in the Louisiana S. (G3), beating runner-up Preakness S. (G1) Midnight Bourbon by three-quarters of the way, but then a trip overseas to claim it. The $20 million Saudi Arabia Cup (G1) reached ninth place. Mandaloun has been training intensely for his return to state, but can we count on him to beat Stephen Foster so deep in his first start?
#3 Olympiad (5-2) doesn’t finish as well as Mandaloun, but his hot form is very attractive. Intern Bill Mott has been undefeated in four starts since lasting about two, bolstering his record with consecutive wins in Mineshaft S. (G3), New Orleans Classic S. (G2) and Alysheba S. (G2). Victory then came at Churchill Downs, where the Olympiad tracked the pace early before a fast finish (finally five sixteen miles between: 29 2/5) to beat the Jockey Club Gold Cup winner ( G1) in 2020 Happy Saver with a score of 2 1/2 length.
I love the quick finish Olympiad opened in Alysheba, and he absolutely guarantees to be included in the multi-race bets. But for the sake of Stephen Foster’s winning bet, I’m tempted to think outside of the double digits #1 Caddo River (10-1).
At first glance, the Caddo River seems superior for a field of this size. He never won the graded bet, and he managed to lose a few optional claimants over the winter at Oaklawn Park.
But dig a little deeper, and there’s a lot to like about the Caddo River. He showed brilliant talent on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2020-21, edging past Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park in 10 1/4 lengths before finishing second in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
More importantly, Caddo River has shown significant improvement in recent starting games. On March 18, he broke a $62,500 grant to claimants the option to race 1 1/16 mile at Oaklawn at 5 3/4 length. On May 1, he settled an $80,000 subsidized option claimant on the same track and distance and covered 5 and a half lengths. Then, on June 5, he shipped the goods to Churchill Downs and passed the optional $150,000 compensation in length 4 and a half.
Caddo River is 2 on 2 at Churchill Downs, and his latest allowance score is excellent. After tracking the solid parts of :23.15, :46.26 and 1:10.06, the Caddo River somehow accelerated its penultimate length at :11.37 and its final length at: 11.86 (both per Trakus) for a quick finish at 1:33.52, just 0.26 off the track record.
The effort produced a 100 Beyer speed figure, not far from the number in the 101-103 Olympiad that was announced this year. Caddo River’s recent improvement reminds me of the Knicks Go forward jump made in 2020, going from a faltering path for the Kentucky Derby alum to a two-time Breeders’ Cup winner. Knicks Go, like Caddo River, is trained by Brad Cox, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Caddo River similarly divide his positive momentum into a series of graded stake scores.
There is another important factor that makes Caddo River profitable. There’s not much speed in the Stephen Foster field on paper, so Caddo River – endowed with tactical speed and a break from the rails – should have every chance to grab the lead and create a modest speed. If he pairs this advantage with another quick finish, Caddo River could prove impossible to keep up.
Option
First: The Caddo . River
Monday: Olympiad
Tuesday: Mandaloun
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in Stephen Foster?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
