Are regulators focusing too much on electric vehicle sales and not enough on phasing out ICE vehicles?
New research argues that global electric vehicle sales are steadily increasing with help from regulators, but that won’t matter if current petrol and diesel vehicles are not phased out. fast, new research argues.
The researchers said in a New book about energy conversion (through Axios).
The researchers compared emissions policies, such as the UK’s plan to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, with average vehicle lifespans. They discovered a significant “revenue lag” between the start of the new regulations and the decommissioning of internal combustion vehicles.
We find that achieving a market share of 1.5C compliant Zero Emission Vehicles requires phasing out sales of zero emission vehicles (mainly gas and diesel vehicles) by 2025. (left y-axis) * and * reduce their averages. lifetime from current 16 to 9 (x-axis). 13/8 pic.twitter.com/Rpzmj8meRw
– Emil Dimanchev (@EmilDimanchev) July 20, 2022
So, achieving emissions reductions significant enough to limit climate change will require “both the rapid elimination of emissions vehicle sales and a significant acceleration of fleet revenue,” said Emil Dimanchev, a of the book’s authors, explained in a Twitter thread detail the argument.
To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius — a goal in line with the Paris Climate Agreement — sales of internal combustion vehicles will have to begin to decline gradually by 2025, but the lifespans of the vehicles are limited. This facility will also have to be reduced from 16 years ( argues Dimanchev .
This reiterates that, due to slow fleet turnover, the transition to EVs will take some time without policy intervention. It also raises a lot of questions.
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Should automakers give their existing gasoline and diesel cars a shorter lifespan to ensure they don’t last beyond the expected transition to electric vehicles? While that guarantees the fleet will turn around faster, it also means a lot of waste. It will almost be a return to the old-fashioned planned auto industry golden age of the 1950s, when consumers were encouraged to trade in their cars every year along with styling changes. .
This also raises the question of whether incentives should focus on retiring internal combustion vehicles rather than buying new electric vehicles. It wouldn’t be unprecedented; 2009 “Cash for Clunkers“the program forces the retirement of older cars built under less stringent emissions rules.
A new program specifically targets gasoline”Superman“could be a good place to start. California already has one”heavy polluter“retirement program, perhaps retooled and expanded. State wants to end sales of new internal combustion vehicles until 2035. Should current gasoline cars be encouraged to retire before then?
