Most of last month was no rainand also cooler than usual with the mid-month freezing event. Those conditions are Ideal for leaf color, but not for drying.
After Ian, Rain will leave
A wet first and last day of October ended a dry month. The National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) reports an average statewide rainfall of 2.07 inchesranked as ours The driest month is 37 in the past 128 years.
The month begins with lingering rains from the ruins of Hurricane Ian on October 1. While it was welcome rains in the eastern regions that had begun to dry earlier in the fall, it was clear in the days following the storm that Ian’s moisture was not clinging too much long, and instead thirst is quickly absorbed. soil types.
Making matters worse is prolonging the dry days into the middle four weeks of October. Between October 2 and October 30, most of the state received less than an inch of rain, like one Continuous high pressure model in the Southeastern United States redirected most rain-generating weather systems and prevented turn-on showers from working.
The month ended the same way it started: with a wave of rain moving across the state, this time in conjunction with low pressure system on Halloween night. The the heaviest rain falls between Raleigh and Rocky Mount, including 2.1 inches at our ECONet station in Clayton.
That event isn’t common, though – the Mountains and the Coastal Plain get almost no rain, to bail out the scammers there – and it’s not enough to save us from a dry October either.
In the Coastal Plain, Lumberton ended the month with just 0.37 inches of rain – October was the 7th driest in 111 years with observations. New Bern measured only 0.56 inches all month for the 4th driest October since 1948. And Wilmington at just 0.59 inches, the 16th driest October since 1874 and the driest since 2001.
Farther west, including the Halloween showers, Raleigh recorded only 1.28 inches of rain for the whole month and recorded as the 24th driest October on record. Charlotte has 0.71 inches and is its 17th driest October. And in Ashevillewhere late September rainfall from Ian is limited, October brings only 0.68 inches, which equates to the 18th driest October.
Cool October is rare
The weather is like autumn effective on the first day of astronomical fall in September, and it experienced an unusually cool October. According to the NCEI, the statewide average temperature of 57.8°F ranked as ours The coolest October 31-October since 1895.
Only the second October in the last decade, the weather was cooler than the average from 1991 to 2020, joining October 2015also begins with a heavy downpour and ends with a brilliant autumn.
With a 2.6°F difference from normal, this October is our coolest month compared to the 30-year average since May 2020is characterized by cloudy, rainy weather.
Of course, last month was the opposite, more sunny and less cloudy. Those are the optimal conditions for radiation cooling overnight, and our average minimum temperature of 45.5°F is the lowest on record for the 36th and the coolest since 2011.
Compared to recent Octobers, which are often more like summer than fall, we also have fewer oppressive air masses and cooler continental air masses that control our weather last month.
Those who cover the first frost Canadian high pressure system of the season, moved in on October 19 and became extremely familiar with North Carolina. All of of North Carolina: Kernersville (as low as 31°F on October 20), Salisbury (as low as 29°F), you know what I’m talking about? Burlington (as low as 28°F on two consecutive nights). The cold air has even arrived Raleigh, Durham, Greensboro, Charlotte. (The lows on October 19 were 34°F, 33°F, 31°F, and 30°F, respectively.)
Even outside the sight of Stephen A. Smith, much of the state has seen its first frost. and the freezing events of autumn, and the abrupt end of the growing season, on chilly mid-October nights.
Monroe had its first freeze on the morning of October 19, a week before the historical average. Snow hill dropped below freezing on October 20, the earliest freeze since the station began reporting in 2009. Likewise, ECONet Station In Wallace frozen at the earliest since it was installed in 2008.
Only scattered parts of the eastern Piedmont and the southern and central Coastal Plains are still awaiting the first freeze. The climatology points out that it usually happens in the first week of November in Raleigh and Fayetteville, in the middle of the month in Elizabeth and Wilmington, and in early December along the Outer Banks.
Good for leaves, bad for drought
Cool, dry conditions throughout October had effects beyond just frost flowers. On the plus side, sunny days and cool nights are exactly Necessary ingredients Let the vivid fall foliage colors emerge, and this year’s show did not disappoint.
Since September 23 – the first full day of astronomical autumn and also when temperature drop to start the season – average low temperatures in Asheville was 42.5°F. That’s 8.5°F colder than each of the past two years, which saw delayed leaf color change and the onset of fall there Coolest since 2001.
Besides, Asheville Regional Airport observed a sunny sky at 328 hours of daylight during the same time period, which is also the most hours since 2001. Overall, that gives the best and most timely picture of fall colors. in the Mountains for at least two decades.
As for the semi-deserts, the downside of the past month is that some of the water levels are actually half-empty, if not worse, in the creeks and streams. Amid this ongoing dry fall, many states continue to experience unusually dry and dry spells.
In the remote mountain regions of the west, where there is little or no rainfall from Ian, rainfall deficits have steadily increased. After a wet start to September, Murphy see only one inch of rain in October and 3.03 inches below normal for the season so far.
City of Bryson is in a similar dry phase, with only 1.09 inches as of September 12. That area has fallen into Severe Drought (D2) as monthly average flow below normal in the Great Smoky Mountains.
Elsewhere, Moderate Drought (D1) has even begun to develop in areas where it rains heavily from Ian. Immediately after the storm, the Richmond County Extension reported that 3 inches of rain there helped late-grown soybeans reach full maturity. This week, much of the Sandhills is officially in drought, with very dry field conditions forcing farmers to delay planting winter crops such as small grains.
The occurrence of drought in the fall of this year is significantly at the same time as last year. Average Drought first appeared on the US Drought Monitor for North Carolina on October 18, compared with October 26 a year ago.
Last fall’s drought widened and intensified for a November dry history. One of the most notable impacts is an increase in wildfire activity, including 1,000 acre fire Fire on Pilot Mountain over Thanksgiving weekend.
Unfortunately, the same activity could happen this year, especially as trees shed their leaves and add to the already dry dead fuel available on the already dry ground. While the possibility of a major fire affects homes, as in Gatlinburg events from 2016generally low, it’s never a bad idea to make sure your own home is protected against that risk.
Consider using fire landscapesuch as keeping combustible materials and vegetation away from areas outside of your home and trimming any vegetation underneath trees that could serve as ladder fuel in the event of a fire.
While we expect a similar winter drought recovery to last year, dry november outlook and our history from just 12 months ago shows that this drought and its effects can get worse before they get better.
