By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
The Road to the Kentucky Derby culminated on Saturday with a $1 million Blue Grass (G1) prize in Keeneland, a $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) in Santa Anita and a Wood Memorial (G2) prize. $750,000 at Aqueduct.
After analyzing the entries, I want to support a favorite, a second pick, and a long-term goal. Here’s how I see the races going:
Green Grass (G1)
#1 Tapit Trice (5-2) is a reasonable pick to win Blue Grass (G1). Intern Todd Pletcher did a giant indoor stretch rally during the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last month, going from 4 1/4 of the way behind in the eighth column to 2 yards ahead at the finish line.
But Tapit Trice got off to a slow start in the Tampa Bay Derby and appeared to be struggling in the long leg. I’m worried if he’s vulnerable on a wide and/or full of traffic when he jumps off a railing into a large field in Blue Grass.
I’ll try to beat the Tapit Trice with #3 Verification (3-1), a beautifully bred foal that I have enjoyed since her triumphant debut in Saratoga last summer. Then, coming in second in Champagne (G1) and sixth in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Verification kicked off 2023 on a high, beating subsequent winners Gun Pilot and Two Eagles River by five 1/4 of the length in a person claiming the one-mile allowance option at Oaklawn.
Unfortunately, Verification failed to build his momentum in Rebel (G2), finishing fourth on a sloppy track. But Verification was hit with meaningful traffic around the far turn and down the house, so I’m willing to forgive his less than stellar performance.
There’s not a lot of speed on the Blue Grass, so Verification—who has set or tracked speed in four of his five starts—looks for a picture-perfect ride near with the leading position. He started training fast for high percentage trainer Brad Cox and looks ready to go beyond expectations.
Derby Santa Anita (G1)
#5 Realistic moves (8-5) has improved by leaps and bounds since late last year, to the point where he ranks among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. In December, he skimmed the rails to win the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) by 3 1/4 lengths. He then returned from a 2-and-a-half-month break to win against San Felipe (G2) with identical tactics over a 2-and-a-half month period.
Reality’s San Felipe win yields a flashy 100 Beyer speed figure, making Reality Joke’s son the horse to beat in the Santa Anita Derby. He starts training fast and has two or three speed horses pulling inside, so if jockey Ramon Vazquez is looking for another ground-saving ride, that option will be left. open.
The actual move has been defeated #3 Geaux rocket ride (3-1) and #7 Skinners (4-1) in San Felipe. And while third place Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) #6 National Treasure (3-1) is a talented foe, he missed San Felipe because of a nail problem and hasn’t run in three months. Unless the Japanese raider #8 Mandarin Hero (8-1) fired a big shot on his US debut, Actual Motion will be measured on the Santa Anita Derby, and I expect him to prevail on Saturday.
Wood Monument (G2)
There are many contenders to win the Wood Memorial. #13 Views (5-2) is the best record in Withers (G3) on track and distance two months ago, coming through home to win by 5 1/2. #5 Slide Mahoney (6-1) finished brilliantly in second place in the Gotham (G3) one-mile race at Aqueduct last month and had thriving roots in his two-turn debut. And intern Todd Pletcher #1 is as beautiful as a dream (7-2) to garner support after finishing second in the fast women’s special weight class at Gulfstream Park.
But I prefer Dreamlike’s stable friend’s chance #11 Classic Catch
(10-1). The son of the juvenile Classic Empire champion is racing 2 to 2 in 1 1/8 mile, breaking his daughter at the Aqueduct last fall by 2 1/2 length #9 Cookies (12-1) before adding a $75,000 Gulfstream Park optional claimant to its tally.
Classic Catch’s Gulfstream victory came two distances ahead of Mr. Ripple, who exceeded expectations by finishing fourth in the Florida Derby (G1) last week. Pletcher has won seven of the last 12 Wood Memorial releases, and Florida shippers have won 10 of the last 12 renewals, so there are plenty of positives in favor of the Classic Catch.
A big hit to the Classic Catch is his modest Beyer and Brisnet speed numbers. But it’s worth noting that all three races on his route are slow paces that aren’t conducive to a quick final time record. If Wood Memorial plays out at a faster pace, I believe Classic Catch can go further and win at double-digit odds.
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the races preparing for the Kentucky Derby?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, disabled athlete, and all-around horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr. Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
