By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman
Welcome to February, everyone! The first weekend of the month is an exciting one with 14 classified stakes slated to take place across the US.
Let’s highlight three of the most exciting races on the agenda, including a pair of the Road to Kentucky Derby Qualifiers.
Holy Bull S. (G3) at Gulfstream Park
As I previously noted on Unlocking Winners, Holy Bull is not very kind with highly graded stakes. Since 2012, prominent minors such as Hansen, Shanghai Bobby, Classic Empire, Enticed, Frosted and Maximus Mischief have all been beaten 2-1 or less at the start of the campaign’s second year. they’re at Holy Bull.
Instead, Holy Bull tends to favor those who tend to grow. Usually, not sprinters, but horses that have run at least a mile or more. Since Holy Bull was stretched to 1/16 of a mile in 2013, eight of the previous nine winners have contested a race over at least a mile.
With these trends in mind, we will take a somewhat innovative approach to beating Holy Bull. We will start by going up against the winner Remsen S. (G2) #2 Mo Donegal (3-1), runner-up Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) # 6 Tiz the Bomb (5-1) and third place Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) #9 Giant game (7-2). All three hit their stride at the age of two, but history shows they are likely to be over-stakes in Holy Bull.
Instead, I will support the established Gulfstream star #4 Simplify (4-1). Not This Time’s son has shown brilliance across four warm-ups, and he couldn’t have been better at the mile-long Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream on New Year’s Day. After taking the lead through the scores: 23.70, :45.81 and 1:09.96 (fast because the run-up distance was only five feet), Simplified came out ahead to win four dimensions under a powerful hand stroke.
There isn’t a lot of pace in the Holy Bull field, so Simplify should have every chance to sway the unbridled lead. From there, he can prove that it is impossible to run down.
Las Virgenes S. (G3) at Santa Anita
The best in this one-mile Road to Kentucky Oaks qualifying is #5 Eda, a determined winner of Starlet S. (G1) at Los Alamitos two months ago. The fat dog trained by Bob Baffert always stands out and digs through mid-fight to fight back and win half the length.
But Eda benefits from tracking (and then setting) slow speeds in Starlet, so I’m not entirely convinced that long runs are her strong suit. Her sharpest attempts have come in sprints, so I’ll try to beat Eda with her steady friend coming soon #3 Adare Manor.
Adare Manor lost her first two sprints, but she kept good companions all the way and then took her game to the next level in the junior special weight class. women’s mile on January 7 in Santa Anita. Leading all the way under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, Adare Manor threw down stellar finisher fractions (last two hits were: 11.97 and: 12.51) to roar. and win 12 lengths in a quick time of 1:36.66.
Velazquez will continue to mount on Sunday, a remarkable task as Velazquez and Baffert have teamed 12v 20 (60%) together over the past two months. If Adare Manor repeats her first win in Las Virgenes, she will have a tough time running down.
Robert B. Lewis S. (G3) at Santa Anita
Assuming Adare Manor wins Las Virgenes, Baffert and Velazquez will have a chance to win a double classified bet thanks to the #1 Messier in Robert B. Lewis.
Messier showed a lot of promise against the classified holdings during the fall, beating future winners of San Vicente S. (G2) Forbidden Kingdom by 3 1/2 lengths in Bob Hope S (G3) before coming in second in Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), only to be defeated by a long stretch by the promising Slow Down Andy.
Slow Down Andy chose to skip Robert B. Lewis, so Messier will be the runner-up to beat on Sunday. He will only face four opponents and he is clearly the fastest entrant in the Brisnet Speed ranking. Messier has worn winks in Los Alamitos Futurity, but he will drop them off to Lewis, hopefully setting the stage for a comfortable ride. The fact that he is training really well at Santa Anita, and Messier looks hard to deny on Sunday.
Now it’s your turn! Who is your favorite of the many stocks classified this weekend?
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J. Keeler Johnson (also known as “Keelerman”) is a writer, cinematographer, voice actor, amputee, and horse racing enthusiast. A huge fan of racing history, he considers Dr Fager the greatest racehorse ever made in America, but considers Zenyatta his all-time favorite.
