2024 Mexico Open: Predictions, expert picks, odds, field rankings, golf best bets for Vidanta Vallarta

Plenty is on the line this week on the PGA Tour as the 2024 Mexico Open at Vidanta takes center stage. Without some of the biggest stars in the game traveling to Mexico, this week provides an opportunity for some of the lesser-known golfers to make a name for themselves. 

Still in the sprint to secure full-time status and spots in the field for the signature events, players understand that just one quality week can change their career. Vidanta Vallarta provides such a chance this week as only one player inside the top 25 of the Official World Golf Rankings will be teeing it up: Tony Finau.

Finau has thrived in two prior trips to Vidanta Vallarta; he came up short to Jon Rahm in 2022 but exacted his revenge a year later over the Spaniard en route to victory. The world No. 24 is without a victory since this event last year (which took place in May), but he is trending towards a big result just as major championship season rolls around.

Nicolai Hojgaard will aim to claim his maiden victory on the PGA Tour after a sensational fall that included victories at the Ryder Cup and DP World Tour Championship. Finishing runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open, the young Dane has continued his stellar play.

Thomas Detry and Stephan Jaeger both factored at Torrey Pines as well and hope to continue their run of form, as will Charles Schwab Challenge winner Emiliano Grillo. Taylor Pendrith, Keith Mitchell and Cameron Champ round out a list of heavy hitters hoping the wide-open nature of Vidanta Vallarta and this field can produce some magic across 72 holes.

2024 Mexico Open schedule

Dates: Feb. 22-25 | Location: Vidanta Vallarta — Vallarta, Mexico
Par: 71 | Yardage: 7,456 | Purse: $8,100,000

2024 Mexico Open field, odds

• Tony Finau (13/2): He is the clear class of the field, but Finau does not come without some concerns. Striking the ball as well as anyone on the PGA Tour, the 34-year-old has connected on three top-25 finishes so far this season with his closet call coming at the always comfortable Torrey Pines. These results could have been even better had the putter cooperated as he lost strokes on the greens in each instance. Finau leads this field in total strokes gained and strokes gained tee to green over the last six months but checks in outside the top 95 with the putter. If there was ever a time for the flat stick to return, it is this week as he has a win and runner-up in two tries.
• Nicolai Hojgaard (16-1)
• Emiliano Grillo (20-1): It could be a convergence of current form and course history for the Argentinian. Grillo has the driver behaving at the moment and is ever reliable with the irons. Connecting on four straight top 25s from the Sony Open through the WM Phoenix Open, he now tries his hand at entering the winner’s circle for the second time since last summer. Vidanta Vallarta could be the perfect spot for him to do so; he has finishes of T33 and T5 to his name.
• Thomas Detry (25-1)
• Stephan Jaeger (25-1): He checks all the boxes in terms of statistics as a distance gains off the tee have allowed Jaeger’s game to shine. A podium finisher at the Farmers Insurance Open after holding the 36- and 54-hole leads, the German returns to competition after a couple weeks off. It will be a comfortable landing spot for Jaeger, who has a pair of top-20 finishes at Vidanta Vallarta. The added distance should help him improve on those.
• Taylor Pendrith (25-1)
• Thorbjorn Olesen (28-1): Olesen makes his first PGA Tour start of the season and arrives in solid form for those paying attention to overseas action. A winner in his last start out on the DP World Tour, the Dane hopes to carry the momentum across the pond in what should be a friendly debut. The 34-year-old has now collected two trophies in his last 25 starts and ranks fifth in this field in terms of total strokes gained over the last six months. 
• Ryan Fox (33-1)
• Davis Thompson (35-1)
• Keith Mitchell (35-1)
• Jake Knapp (35-1): He has made a name for himself in the young season thanks to some solid play, a unique backstory and some luscious locks. Knapp has some serious speed, and it should be put to good use this week on the par-71 layout. He ranks fourth in terms of driving distance and arrives in Mexico off noteworthy showings at the Farmers Insurance Open and Phoenix Open.

2024 Mexico Open expert picks

Who will win the Mexico Open at Vidanta, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and best bets, all from the model that’s nailed 10 golf majors and is up more than $10,000 since June 2020.