Wrong, Washington Post – History and data contradict claims of deterioration of ‘Atmospheric Rivers’
On January 12, 2023, washington articles (WaPo) posted a story by writer Kasha Patel with the title, How climate change will make atmospheric rivers worse. In the story, Patel states, “Atmospheric rivers are predicted to become wetter, larger and more dangerous as temperatures rise.” Title wise, nothing could be further from the truth. Actual historical and current data provide no evidence that climate change has caused atmospheric rivers to become more frequent or more extreme, nor do they provide a cause-and-effect link. Which shows why it should do so.
This first requirement is said to be greater rainfall. WaPo says:
Perhaps one of the best understood aspects of climate change is its effect on precipitation. In a warmer atmosphere, the rate of evaporation increases and converts more liquid water molecules to the vapor state in the air. In fact, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water for every 1 degree Celsius increase (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). This moisture-laden air can cause a larger drop in precipitation at the same time, increasing the intensity of precipitation events.
Earth’s atmosphere has warmed by about 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, and researchers have observed heavier rain in stormy, stormy, daily rainfall – and now in atmospheric rivers.
While it’s true that warmer air holds more moisture, WaPo’s claims about storms, hurricanes, and daily precipitation getting worse are completely false.
Chapter 11, Weather and Climate Climate Change Extreme Eventsin report AR6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluding that changes in the frequency and intensity of most extreme weather events have either been undetected nor can be attributed to them. for any change that is caused by anthropogenic climate change.
Regarding storms that depend on the global atmospheric water cycle, the actual data show no increase flood; no increase Tropical cyclones and hurricanes; no increase winter storm; and not increase thunderstorm or tornadoor is associated with hail, lightning, and extreme winds from thunderstorms.
Furthermore, a peer review paper published in 2020 satellite data and audio are used and see no trend affects the lower tropical stratospheric water vapor, in this region where the west coast atmospheric rivers originate.
Even more powerful than that, a data analysis of global relative humidity data over land and ocean (where atmospheric rivers originate) and publicly available from the UK Met Office Great Britain, shows relative humidity actually decreases.
After swinging and missing its claims that inclement weather was getting worse, WaPo then absurdly claimed that there would be less snow, while falsely claiming that the rivers in the atmosphere would be worse:
Atmospheric rivers play an important role in the supply of mountain snow and ice, serving as an important source of fresh water when the ice melts in spring and summer. Some from research Weather systems provide about a quarter of the snow mass in the Sierra Nevada. However, as temperatures increase, the amount of snowfall is decreasing.
Learn have shown that atmospheric rivers are providing less snow north of the Sierra Nevada, instead falling as rain because the Earth is too warm.
This is wrong. The most recent series of atmospheric rivers from December 2022 to January 2023 brought large amounts of snow to California.
According to the California Department of Water Resources, snow cover in the Central and Southern Sierra is now 200% above average for this day and 76% above average for April 1, when it typically peaks. point.
UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab share a map (see figure 2 below) shows as of January 12orderCalifornia’s snow cover is doing very well, said: “Overall statewide, we are now 104% above the April 1st average according to @CA_DWR!”
Patel also doesn’t mention California’s history of flooding from atmospheric rivers, but paleoclimatic history refutes her claims even more strongly than contemporary data.
California has always been prone to severe river-related weather events in the atmosphere. From late 1861 to January 1862, the largest atmospheric river event ever occurred on the west coast.
Known as Great flood of 1862, it is the largest in recorded history of California. Weeks of continuous rain and snow in the highlands began in November 1861 and continued into January 1862. This was followed by record rainfall from January 9 to 12. The river event in the atmosphere. The atmosphere dumped the equivalent of 10 feet of water into California, a combination of rain and snow, over 43 days.
Finally, a warm ferocious storm melted heavy snow, causing flooding throughout the Sacramento Valley, including Sacramento itself, see lithograph Figure 3. Capital moved to San Francisco, state The company went bankrupt and the government employee went unpaid for almost a year. Much of California’s Central Valley has become a lake—300 miles long; 40 miles wide.
Geologists at US Geological Survey (USGS) drilled for core samples in the San Francisco Bay and in lake and marsh sediments across California. They have definitely identified gravel streams deposited by the Great Flood of 1862. They also found that similar and even more devastating floods occurred in AD 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418 and 1605 — about once every 200 years.
In that publication, the USGS said A study of past atmospheric river events found: “The geological record shows six major hurricanes of more than 1861-1862 in California over the past 1800 years and there is no reason to believe that the Such an event will not happen again.”
The question WaPo won’t answer is – how did all these stronger storms come before so-called modern man-made climate change?
The answer is – WaPo and much of today’s climate science rely too much on projections from computer models than on looking at trends in historical and real-world data.
As computer models’ temperature projections show, climate models are too unreliable to base predictions on. Unfortunately, instead of doing some independent research and fact-checking, injecting “investigation” into investigative journalism, writers like Patel and mainstream media like WaPo, continue to advocate support the radically disproved but widely promoted story that climate change is making the weather worse. Shame on them for stubbornly clinging to a false story to promote fear.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front and behind the camera as an online broadcast meteorologist since 1978 and now does daily radio forecasts. He has created graphical weather display systems for television, specialized weather instruments, as well as co-authored articles on climate issues. He runs the world’s most viewed website on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Related
