Window of opportunity for hydrogen fuel cells has passed for cars, diminishing for trucks
The time for hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars to serve as a primary fuel in transportation has passed, and the window of opportunity is closing for heavy-duty trucks, too, according to a new study published in the journal Science and Technology. published as “comment” in Nature Electronics (through the Charged EVs).
The study’s author, from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems Research and Innovation and claiming no competing interests, argues that battery-vehicle range and charging improvements have canceled the selling point. The mainstay of battery-powered vehicles – long range and quick refueling times. Policymakers should now focus all efforts on promoting EVs, he argued.
The study notes that electric vehicles have grown faster than fuel cell vehicles. At the beginning of 2021, there are about 25,000 fuel cell passenger cars on the road, two models on sale (Hyundai Nexo and Toyota Mirai), and about 540 hydrogen stations globally. For comparison, the study’s authors predict that by early 2022, there are likely to be around 15 million battery- and plug-in hybrid vehicles on the road.
Hyundai Nexo 2021
Even in the trucking sector, where demand for large battery packs is already a limiting factor, battery-powered vehicles outnumber fuel-cell vehicles, the study said. However, the EV range may still be too limited for long-haul transportation, potentially providing a niche for fuel cells, according to the study.
According to the study, the proposed megawatt charging systems could back the favor of electric vehicles, but it remains unclear whether it will be cheaper than hydrogen. The study notes that total cost of ownership will ultimately be the determining factor in whether fuel cells or batteries dominate in trucking.
The paper concludes: “Policymakers and industry need to decide quickly whether the fuel cell truck market is large enough to sustain further hydrogen technology development, Or whether it’s time to cut your losses and focus your efforts elsewhere.”
Hyundai Xcient Fuel Cell pickup truck to be used in California tests
That’s not all bad news for hydrogen, though. The authors believe that fuel cells could have a big future in aviation, shipping and steelmaking. Just not cars and trucks.
At least some automakers share that view. Volkswagen has come up with a reason why fuel cells makes no sense in cars. Synthetic engine closed technology in passenger vehicles, but sees it as future technology for road transport and military use. It is also looking at hydrogen for portable generators and, ironically, Fast Charge EV.
Not every automaker is giving up on hydrogen fuel cell cars. That and Hyundai both have fuel cell technology in their roadmap, as well as Toyota.
The California Energy Commission has also issued a rosy forecast – that fuel cell technology is expected to at the same price as gasoline by 2025. That’s based on energy itself, not vehicle technology or the cost of refueling stations.
