Who will win The Open 2024? Odds assessment for Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and top of the leaderboard
One of the most bizarre Move Days in recent major championship history took place on Saturday at the 2024 Open, setting the stage for one of the most open final rounds in years.
Wind and rain made the back nine at Royal Troon “probably the toughest nine holes I’ve ever played”, according to world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who shot 71 in the conditions. “I shouldn’t say never,” he added, “but it’s definitely the toughest hole I’ve ever played to this point.”
Scheffler wasn’t the only one who felt that way. Dustin Johnson called it “the toughest nine holes I think you can play in golf right now.” Because the weather was much milder earlier in the day, it made for a condensed ranking where the early starters broke away and the leaders were brought back to the rest of the field.
As a result, there are now 11 golfers just four strokes behind leader Billy Horschel, who had a stellar performance over the final nine holes on Saturday.
Of course, not every golfer in the field has the same chance of winning, but at least they have a chance (more than most people can say). Of course, if conditions on Sunday are like Saturday, someone will probably shoot an early 64 or 65 and the leaders will fall behind.
“These things are very weather-dependent,” said Xander Schauffele, who trailed Horschel by one shot. “If it’s like today, if someone is even par or a couple of strokes better and they shoot 7 under, 8 under, I think that’s a pretty realistic chance to win.”
So there are probably more players than we can foresee. For now, we’ll just rate the nine below par players. It would be surprising — even with bad weather — if one of these nine didn’t win the golf tournament, so let’s rank them from most likely to least likely.
Xander Schauffele (-3)
Odds: 33/10
Why he will win: Of the late starters on Saturday, Schauffele looked the best. His 1-under 69 was one of two rounds in the 60s in the final few groups (Horschel had the other). Schauffele, who is ranked No. 4 in the field tee to green this week, is having the best season of his career. He will need the confidence he has built since finishing the PGA Championship earlier this season to get him into the winner’s circle at Troon.
Why didn’t he do that: Schauffele was run over by the next person on this list.
Scottie Scheffler (-2)
Odds: 18/5
Why he will win: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Scheffler leads in strokes gained tee to green but ranks 68th in putting. Power putters are at the top of the majors, and Scheffler is the power putter favorite of power putters. His 3-wood on the par-3 17th for birdie is one I’ll be thinking about for a long time. He’s been lurking all week, and while he’s technically nine under par, it looks like there’s a two-player race between him and Schauffele.
Why didn’t he do that: This Open depends on Scottie’s putt. If he makes the putt on Sunday, he’ll probably win. If not, Schauffele will probably win the Claret Jug. It’s that simple unless someone else on this list plays the round of his life.
Justin Rose (-3)
Odds: 8-1
Why he will win: Rose is a great champion, and he’s playing with the urgency of someone who’s about to enter his sixth year on the PGA Tour Champions. He knows this is probably his last Open (or any major), and if not, it’s at least close to it. What Shane Bacon said on Saturday about Rose’s focus and intensity is true. Everyone wants to be at this Open, but not everyone’s time is running out, and not everyone has the experience to deal with the emotions they’ll feel on a big Sunday.
Why didn’t he do that: Rose is unlikely to collapse, but I’m not sure he has the firepower to keep up with Scheffler and Schauffele. He has only had one top-10 finish this season, most of which came on Sunday at a major, but it’s still worth considering because it involves four days of competition with two of the best in the world.
Billy Horschel (-4)
Odds: 11/2
Why he will win: His short game was off the charts on Saturday, and he made a couple of title-saving pars to get to Sunday, where anything is possible. He was second from tee to green to Scheffler, and more importantly, first in ball-striking accuracy, which is crucial this week given how easy it is to make doubles and triples.
Why didn’t he do that: Horschel built a good career and made a lot of money, but he has never really been in a situation like this before. He played very well on Saturday, but given his short tee shot and number of saves, it’s easy to see how he could have failed if he had encountered bad winds in his final match alongside Thriston Lawrence.
Sam Burns (-3)
Odds: 17/2
Why he will win: Burns seems to want to be noticed, and he likes to get the ball in decisive situations. If he can give himself a chance from tee to green, he has the potential to do whatever he sees coming on Sunday. He’s the player in this group that I find most interesting in terms of how he responds. His best finish at a major to date is a T9 at the US Open last month, which is the only time he’s finished in the top 10.
Why didn’t he do that: Burns was up and down all week. He had 7 under par through the first 11 holes on Thursday before fighting hard to reach 3 under on Sunday. Not usually a great recipe for a first major championship.
Shane Lowry (-1)
Odds: 25-1
Why he will win: He’s the only golfer on this list who knows what it’s like to win an Open. Lowry had a hell of a game on Saturday, but he’s only three shots off the lead. That won’t appeal to him on the 8th tee when he’s 8 under, but I bet it did a week ago. Lowry plays golf, not golf, and when The Open is on Sunday, players should be playing golf, not golf. His recovery on Sunday will be amazing.
Why didn’t he do that: He couldn’t have played worse on Saturday, and I’m worried that it’s taken a little bit of a toll on him. On Friday he was talking about how he was in good shape mentally, but on Saturday he was complaining about his setup. Golfers are fragile, even strong players like Lowry, and their games are fragile. I had faith in his recovery in the final round, but when you look at his 62nd tee-to-green and 74th putting on Saturday, I can easily see why people wouldn’t think so.
Russell Henley (-3)
Odds: 9-1
Why he will win: Henley surprisingly finished third in the field from tee to green this week. He’s hitting the ball pretty well, and it would be nice to take this win away from some of the bigger names. He’s also trending toward a major win — slowly but surely. Henley finished T4 at the 2023 Masters and T7 at the US Open last month.
Why didn’t he do that: What Henley did on Saturday against the leaders is very different from being in the lead group on Sunday. We’ve seen him in the final pair on Sunday at a major before and it didn’t go well. In the final round of the 2021 US Open, he played in the final pair and didn’t make the top 10. He’s grown since then and we’ll see on Sunday how much he’s grown.
Dan Brown (-3)
Odds: 22-1
Why he will win: There’s an air of magic about him right now. For someone who has missed six of seven cuts on the DP World Tour and had to qualify for this tournament, there’s got to be that. He hasn’t given up despite much higher quality players around him doing so. He’s just kept going despite not hitting the ball well on Friday or Saturday. He’s lingering, maybe even stalking.
Why didn’t he do that: The game wasn’t trending in the right direction for Brown, who played his final two holes on Saturday with three under par. He was 40th in the field from tee to green and basically made every shot he saw. It was great for him to become only the third player in the last 100 years to win his first major tournament, but unfortunately his Cinderella story will likely end on the first nine holes on Sunday.
Thriston Lawrence (-3)
Odds: 14-1
Why he will win: There’s no good reason for Lawrence to win the Claret Jug other than being in the final pair. If you wanted to convince me to pick Adam Scott or Justin Thomas on equal terms, I’d probably pick them over Lawrence winning this tournament.
Why didn’t he do that: With all due respect to Lawrence, he had the best of weather on Saturday and doesn’t have the game or pedigree to win a major. It could happen, but it probably won’t. It’s like Daniel Berger and Tony Finau in Sunday’s final match at the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock, when they were crushed by Brooks Koepka.
Rick Gehman, Patrick McDonald and Greg DuCharme recap a busy moving day at Royal Troon and prepare you for Sunday’s final round at the Open Championship. Watch & listen to The First Cut on Apple Podcasts And Spotify.
