Masters Predictions 2023: Nine trends from the last decade that help determine this year’s blue jacket winners

Although golfers often make scouting trips months in advance to prepare for major tournaments like the US Open or the PGA Championship in the United States, most already have the general idea. about what will happen when April comes and the azaleas bloom. That’s because Augusta National Golf Club is the only course in the world to host a major championship every year.

The 2023 Masters begins this week as usual in early April, although there have been some route changes in recent years with the removal of several trees on 11 par-4, extending 15th. par-5 in 2022 and most recently, extending the 13th par-5 hole before the 2023 tournament. While most DO Consider the early Augusta, whose core concept of golf is still intact.

You see it year by year with veterans seemingly finding shape out of thin air. It’s not that they’re playing better than today’s stars; It’s just that they have more experience playing for Augusta National, especially than the younger generation. Freddie Couples and Tom Watson have made early-week charges in their 50s. Bernhard Langer has beaten Bryson DeChambeau twice in the last three years. In any other place on Earth, that may not be the case. After the player finds the key ingredient at Augusta — it varies between them — the recipe is just as good as his.

Not only does one’s course knowledge need to be expanded, but so should their current skill set. Although the specter of past Masters champions occasionally pops up on the leaderboards, only those who are truly comfortable with all aspects of their game have the strength to overcome it. until Sunday night. A player doesn’t just fall for the green jacket (ask Dustin Johnson), he often works towards it and reaches the top at the right time. (You can also ask the DJ about this.)

With all this in mind, let’s take a look back at the 10 most recent winners of masters and identify trends that exist between them as we try to narrow down the 88-player roster to determine this year’s champion.

Watch all four rounds of the 2023 Masters starting Thursday with Direct Master As we follow the world’s best golfers across Augusta National with Featured Teams, check-in at the famous Amen Corner and watch the 15th & 16th lead hitters. Watch live on CBSSports.comthe CBS Sports App And Most important +.

1. Official World Golf Ranking

It’s a hot issue in 2023, and no matter which side of the aisle you’re on, there’s no denying OWGR’s problems at the Masters. Each of the last 10 Masters champions were in the OWGR top 25 the week before the tournament. They range from world No. 1 like Scottie Scheffler in 2022 and Johnson in 2020 to world No. 25 Hideki Matsuyama in 2021.

Disqualified — Those outside the OWGR top 25. Notable people include: Joaquin Niemann, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Min Woo Lee, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka , Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Abraham Ancer

2. Maybe do not remember your first time

Only three players have ever won Masters on their first attempt: Horton Smith in the first Masters, Gene Sarazen in 1935 and (most recently) Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Jordan Spieth almost joined this group in 2014 when he held part of the lead at 54 holes, and Will Zalatoris almost achieved the feat in 2021 when he was just behind Matsuyama. remove: Tom Kim, Kurt Kitayama

3. It’s a steady climb

They say Augusta National is an acquired taste. One may not understand the nuances the first time or the second, but once the game plan is in place, all that is left on the table is execution. Seven of the 10 most recent Masters champions have finished in the top 5 at least once in their Masters careers before donning the green jacket with all 10 having previously won the finish. results in the top 40. Despite his improvement on golf’s biggest stage, that beat world No. 5 Max Homa, who had the best record (T48) last year as well as a several other young Americans. remove: Starring:Max HomaSam BurnsCameron Young

4. What have you done for me lately?

Every blue jacket winner since 2013 has reached the top 15 on the PGA Tour or DP World Tour in a stroke event in the calendar year ahead of the Masters. Six of those made it to the winner’s circle of the year — see Scheffler in 2022, Johnson in 2020 and Spieth in 2015 — while eight secured a spot on the podium thanks to the result. top three results. remove: Billy Horschel

5. Grand Champion Genealogy

There have been several major winners past Augusta for the first time, but none have come without some prior experience on a comparable stage. Eight of the 10 most recent Masters champions have had at least one major runner-up result to their name with all 10 having a T6 or higher record. In the year before winning, 5 of the last 10 finished runners-up in a major championship while 8 finished in the top 10. remove: tom hoge

We have only 18 players left who can wear the green jacket…

6. Let’s learn technique

The data obtained from the shots is a wonderful thing. In the calendar year prior to the crowning of their respective Masters, all 10 champions averaged at least +0.65 strokes per round with a group average of +2.14. Only nine players are currently averaging more than +2.00. It’s not Scheffler (+2.50) or Spieth (+2.38) who boasted the most impressive stats ahead of their win but Watson (+3.02) and Johnson (+3.91) – although it is in an unusual style given to the November Masters – – the three-stroke hurdler. A pair of 2022 tournament contenders looked nothing like their usual in the early stages of 2023 and will happily walk away from the rest. remove: Cameron Smith, Shane Lowry

7. Speak softly and carry a big stick

The numbers off the tee are the best predictors of success in the golfing world — just look at the best players in the world right now, they’re also among the top scorers. best golf ball possible ever. The same goes for Augusta, where the last 10 winners averaged at least +0.10 tees per round in the calendar year they won. Reed is the shortest in this group with +0.14 shots per round, 0.01 less than Spieth’s current average. The Golden Boy is still alive (for now), but a popular pick is not. remove: Xander Schauffele

8. Iron it out

Augusta National often caters to some of the best snooker players in the world (like Woods). Over the past three months, Collin Morikawa has been the best in this category (+1.22 strokes per round), while some of the big names have struggled with their scoring clubs. The 10 previous winners with a minimum average of +0.40 hits approach per round — a level that some historically strong approach players have never sniffed. remove: Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama

9. A Rejection Plan is required

As they say, everything will come to fans in the major championships, and the Masters is no different. Many times, there will be some kind of disturbance during the 72 holes and the player’s short game will be tested. Whether it’s Scheffler’s 3rd-place chip-in in the final round of 2022 or Danny Willett’s up-and-down shot on the 71st hole in 2016, presence around the green is imperative under some form or form. This is where the majority of potential winners simply don’t hit the +0.20 strokes gained around the green clip from the previous 10 winners. remove: Actors: Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Keegan Bradley

So where does that leave us?

From a course with 88 golfers, only six — Scottie SchefflerRory McIlroyJon RahmPatrick CantlayJustin Thomas And Jordan Spieth — maintain. Rahm has won the most events this season (three), while Cantlay has the best tee to green of the bunch. Spieth easily has the history at Augusta National in its favor, while Scheffler (repeated champion) and McIlroy (grand slam career) have golf histories looking them in the face. And to be honest, I thought Thomas would be out right now, but he made it to the end. That’s great. He will probably win, somehow.