You are the Power 5 sports director. You are tasked with hiring a new football coach. Maybe you want this coach to last 11+ games (look at you, Washington State) or 13 games (look at you, Washington).
Four Power 5 jobs are currently open, and several more may follow. Six have been filled through leases by USC (Lincoln Riley) and LSU (Brian Kelly). Every ad and fan base is looking for a “home run” hire, the guy that meets the show’s perceived potential. But where do you find these people? With James Franklin, Dave Aranda, Jimbo Fisher and Mel Tucker seemingly withdrawing themselves from the market, Advertisers will find them harder than ever.
THAN: The latest news about the training carousel
Sporting News is here to help. We looked at all 52 Power 5 employees over the past 5 years, sorted them into categories based on the backgrounds of those hired, and then subjectively chose to “go home” and “fail”. The category with the greatest home success rate was “promoted from within,” with superstars Ryan Day, Lincoln Riley and Mario Cristobal all being elevated from coordinator when the head coach left. So when names are put out for current opportunities, it’s better for ADs to double check that the best person for that job isn’t on campus yet.
We went beyond these categories: Of the 19 coaches who served as coordinators or assistants before being hired, seven went home, six failed. Of the 24 sitting head coaches, group 5 or Power 5, there are 4 home runs and 9 failures. The move from program to program as head coach has ceased to be a flop in recent years.
Below is a breakdown of every Power 5 hire over the past 5 years and where those hires came from.
THAN: Why Lincoln Riley left OU | Where does Oklahoma turn?
Group of 5 head coaches
- Total: 18
- Still the current head coach: twelfth
- Home runs: 2
- Failure: 6
This is the most common route used by ADs – taking Group 5 of the hottest trainers out there – but the hit rate isn’t high. Matt Rhule at Baylor and Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss are classified as “home run”, and Kiffin’s position may be premature. Minnesota’s PJ Fleck is on the edge but not quite there with a 33-23 record, similar to the Golden Gophers’ 37-28 record five years before his arrival. On the losing side, Tom Herman (Texas), Chad Morris (Arkansas), Matt Wells (Texas Tech) and Nick Rolovich (Washington State) were fired, Willie Taggart left Oregon after a 7-5 season and Scott Frost continued. continues to lead Nebraska to new lows.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| PJ Fleck | Central Michigan to Minnesota | 2017 | |
| Jeff Brohm | Western Kentucky to Purdue | 2017 | |
| Matt Rhule | Temple to Baylor | 2017 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Tom Herman | Houston to Texas | 2017 | FAIL |
| Willie Taggart | USF to Oregon | 2017 | FAIL |
| Scott Frost | UCF to Nebraska | 2018 | FAIL |
| Chad Morris | SMU to Arkansas | 2018 | FAIL |
| Scott Satterfield | Appalachian State to Louisville | 2019 | |
| Geoff Collins | Temple to Georgia Tech | 2019 | |
| Neal’s Brown | Troy to West Virginia | 2019 | |
| Matt Wells | Wyoming to Texas Tech | 2019 | FAIL |
| Mike Norvell | Memphis to Florida State | Year 2020 | |
| Nick Rolovich | Hawaii to Washington State | Year 2020 | FAIL |
| Lane Kiffin | FAU to Ole Miss | Year 2020 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Eli Drinkwitz | Appalachian State to Missouri | Year 2020 | |
| Lance Leipold | Buffalo to Kansas | Year 2021 | |
| Bryan Harsin | Boise State of Auburn | Year 2021 | |
| Josh Huepel | UCF to Tennessee | Year 2021 |
Power 5 . Coordinator
- Total: 9
- Still the current head coach: 7
- Home runs: first
- Failure: 4
Dave Aranda was only 11-9 in Baylor, but remember, his first season was Pandemic Year and the show ended quickly after Matt Rhule left. Aranda rebuilt the Bears in year 2 and now have them in the top 10. Jeremy Pruitt was the only coach in this group to be fired, but Mel Tucker also fell into the flop after only lasted 5-7 season at Colorado before leaving. . Steve Sarkisian led Texas to an unimaginable six-game losing streak in Year 1.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Justin Wilcox | Wisconsin to Cal | 2017 | |
| Jonathan Smith | Washington to Oregon State | 2018 | |
| Jeremy Pruitt | Alabama to Tennessee | 2018 | FAIL |
| Mike Locksley | Alabama to Maryland | 2019 | |
| Mel Tucker | Georgia to Colorado | 2019 | FAIL |
| Jeff Hafley | Ohio State to Boston College | Year 2020 | FAIL |
| Dave Aranda | LSU to Baylor | Year 2020 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Steve Sarkisian | Alabama to Texas | Year 2021 | FAIL |
| Clark Lea | Notre Dame Cathedral to Vanderbilt | Year 2021 |
Motivated from within
- Total: 8
- Still the current head coach: 4
- Home runs: 5
- Failure: 2
This is an all or nothing category. Had an impressive home run team with Tom Allen in Indiana, Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma, Mario Cristobal in Oregon and Ryan Day in Ohio State. Ed Orgeron is still on the home run list despite being fired by LSU, for taking home the national championship in 2019. Matt Luke and Jimmy Lake have also been fired and Manny Diaz is on top at the moment. Miami. Right now, we’re against putting Diaz on the fail list, but if he gets fired, that would put every promoted coach in one category or another.
| NAME | SCHOOLS | YEAR | RESULT |
| Tom Allen | Indiana | 2017 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Lincoln Riley | Oklahoma | 2017 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Ed Orgeron | LSU | 2017 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Mario Cristobal | Oregon | 2018 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Matt Luke | Ole Miss | 2018 | FAIL |
| Manny Diaz | Miami | 2019 | |
| Ryan’s Day | Ohio State | 2019 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Lake Jimmy | Washington | Year 2021 | FAIL |
Power 5 . Head Coach
- Total: 5
- Still the current head coach: 3
- Home runs: 2
- Failure: 2
Tucker exceeded all expectations at Michigan State despite a terrible 56-7 loss to Ohio State. It looks like the university paid too much to hire him out of Colorado, and it may have overpaid him again with a 10-year, $95 million contract extension, but he delivered successfully in 2021; The Spartans were expected to win just four games. Jimbo Fisher has made Texas A&M more relevant than ever, both on the hiring trail and in the national conversation. It didn’t work out this season when everything seemed to be in order for it to pull through and win the SEC West, but AggieLand is still thrilled to have Jimbo at the helm. Taggart was fired during his second season at Florida State. Dan Mullen enjoyed success at Florida, but similar to Herman at Texas, that wasn’t good enough and he was fired after four seasons.
THAN: Tucker signs $95 million extension
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Willie Taggart | Oregon to Florida | 2018 | FAIL |
| Jimbo Fisher | Florida to Texas A&M | 2017 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Dan Mullen | Mississippi to Florida | 2018 | FAIL |
| Mel Tucker | Colorado to Michigan State | Year 2020 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Mike Leach | Washington State to Mississippi State | Year 2020 |
Outside of football
- Total: 5
- Still the current head coach: 4
- Home runs: 0
- Failure: first
This group doesn’t fit the stories that were there when they were hired. Chip Kelly was supposed to rock it at UCLA. He is not. Herm Edwards and Mack Brown are expected to fail at Arizona State and North Carolina, respectively. They do not have. Greg Schiano is supposed to be the answer at Rutgers. He may prove it, but the Scarlet Knights don’t make much progress climbing the Big Ten ladder. The only hiring analyst correctly pegged is Les Miles of Kansas. He was not considered a good pick, and that initial view proved correct.
| NAME | SCHOOLS | YEAR | RESULT |
| Chip Kelly | UCLA | 2018 | |
| Herm Edwards | State of Arizona | 2018 | |
| Mack Brown | North Carolina | 2019 | |
| Les Miles | Kansas | 2019 | FAIL |
| Greg Schiano | Rutgers | Year 2020 |
NFL Assistant
- Total: 3
- Still the current head coach: 3
- Home runs: 0
- Failure: 0
This group is all new to the job, and all three have shown some promise after taking over dormant programs. Karl Dorrell took over Colorado after Tucker’s 5-7 season and won 3-1 in the Pac-12 in Pandemic Year, despite CU’s mediocre form this season. Bret Bielema took over an Illinois show that had nine consecutive losing seasons. It finished 10th, but it also has wins over Nebraska and Penn State. Jedd Fisch found an empty cabinet in Arizona and later suffered a year of disability.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Karl Dorrell | Dolphins to Colorado | Year 2020 | |
| Bret Bielema | The Giants Come to Illinois | Year 2021 | |
| Jeff Fisch | Patriots to Arizona | Year 2021 |
Power Assistant 5
- Total: 2
- Still the current head coach: 2
- Home runs: first
- Failure: 0
Sam Pittman of Arkansas and Shane Beamer of South Carolina have exceeded expectations as head coaches for the first time in the SEC. Pittman took over a show in disarray and pushed it to the middle of the toughest division in the country in just two years. Both fan bases must be encouraged by an early return.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Sam Pittman | Georgia to Arkansas | Year 2020 | SUCCESSFUL |
| Shane Beamer | Oklahoma to South Carolina | Year 2021 |
Fired Power Trainer 5
- Total: first
- Still the current head coach: 0
- Home runs: 0
- Failure: first
Mullen, Orgeron, and Gary Patterson fall into this category in this hiring cycle. The only coach sought after by the P5 program after being fired for the past five years was Kevin Sumlin of Arizona, and that didn’t work out. Sumlin took over a declining program from Rich Rodriguez and continued to decline it, leaving Fisch with a major rebuild. Sumlin won 5-7 in 2018, 4-8 in 2019 and then 0-5 in 2020, closing things off with a humiliating 70-7 loss to rival Arizona State.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Kevin Sumlin | Texas A&M to Arizona | 2018 | FAIL |
Head Coach FCS
- Total: first
- Still the current head coach: first
- Home runs: 0
- Failure: 0
Chris Klieman has been an outstanding player for Kansas State, bordering the home track. A 19-16 record over three seasons includes two wins over Oklahoma. The show is on solid momentum, unlike last time Bill Snyder needed to be replaced.
| NAME | FORWARD | YEAR | RESULT |
| Chris Klieman | North Dakota to Kansas State | 2019 |
