Where Russia went wrong – The New York Times

news7g12/18/2022

4 5 minutes read

Where Russia went wrong - The New York Times

Nearly 10 months of invading Ukraine, Russia has suffered many great losses. Its army faltered against an enemy that, before the war, seemed much weaker. A group of Times journalists published an account this weekend how Russia mismanaged its invasion, based on interviews, intercepted phone calls, documents and secret operational plans. At its center is Vladimir Putin, the Russian president who has been in power for more than two decades.

I spoke with Anton Troianovski, Moscow bureau chief and one of the main reporters for the story, about how Putin came to the decision to go to war.

Claire: When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, experts believed that Russia would quickly conquer Ukraine. That didn’t happen. What was the main reason the war went bad for Russia?

Anton: It’s been a string of failures, and topped by Putin’s own fallacy, his own isolation, and his own belief that he knows what’s best. The Russian army was not prepared from a tactical level, as was the use of Soviet-era maps. Like using their cell phone to call home, this exposes their location and allows them to be ambushed or attacked. There was not enough food to feed the soldiers.

We have obtained actual copies of several invasion plans that some Russian military units have, showing that they are expected to move towards Kyiv within hours of the invasion. The Russian military leaders don’t think they need any reinforcements.

I talked to many people who knew Putin well, and they told me that his decision to go to war was based on his intuition. Putin doesn’t seem to think he needs advice on the wisdom of this invasion. Putin is convinced that he knows best, that he understands Ukraine and its place in history as well as his own.

You report in the story that, in part because of the pandemic, Putin has not met a Western leader in person in over a year. How did that affect your decision to go to war?

We do not have perfect insight into what is going on within Putin’s inner circle; it remains one of the world’s most secretive rulers. But everyone I spoke to said they didn’t believe Putin had a single meeting before the invasion where people talked openly about the wisdom of going to war. Putin doesn’t like group discussions, he likes face-to-face discussions.

One person I spoke to compared it to a social media algorithm. Putin’s aides and friends will see what made him emotional, and they will bring him information that reinforces his point of view.

Why are war predictions so wrong?

That’s because this war is something that no one can really imagine. It’s not just Putin who miscalculated. Most of the Russian elite think that there is no chance that Putin will actually go to war. Many Ukrainians also don’t think Putin will actually invade, nor do Europeans. America did expected Russia to invade, but thought it could win in a few days. The war is too different from anything that has happened in recent decades to make wise predictions.

There are a lot of miscalculations from all sides. Nor does Putin expect the West to unite in support of Ukraine in the way they have, and neither does he seem to expect Europe to change direction from Russia’s fossil fuels so quickly.

We’ve talked a lot about what happened to Russia, and of course the war isn’t over yet. What’s up? To be progressing well?

Putin realizes that things don’t go according to plan, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to back down. He is willing to accept a lot of casualties – up to 300,000, according to what one NATO member is currently telling allies. Putin’s view is that the Soviet Union lost 27 million people in World War II, and he believes the Russian people are willing to suffer – more than people in the West.

Another thing that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war would not go horribly wrong and that it was the West that forced Russia to fight. In addition, sanctions have not derailed the Russian economy in the way the West had hoped, and much of the world has not turned against Russia in the way that some expected.

Telling the inner history of an ongoing war is an ambitious goal. How did you all pursue this story?

It was a very stressful reporting effort. I’m trying to go beyond what we already know about Putin and learn some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It’s really hard, because that’s something very few people know for sure. It took a long time and a lot of conversation.

I spoke with two wealthy Russians, one against Putin and the other not. It’s interesting to see how people make their decisions. There are plenty of people willing to speak publicly. Often these people are willing to talk because they want their story to be made public.

Anton Troianovski is The Times’ Moscow bureau chief. His first journalism job was as a photographer for local newspapers in the St. Louis, where he grew up, and he first reported in Russia as an intern for The Associated Press in 2006.

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