The Week That Was: 2023-02-11 (February 11, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it.” – Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: 10%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The issues addressed this week include the following: In its latest Summary for Policymakers (2021) the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has attempted to suppress natural variation from any discussions on climate change over the last 2000 years. Ecologist Jim Steele continues to try to provide a better understanding of natural climate change. In the latest presentation he discusses the dynamics of Arctic sea ice and how the emphasis on surface air temperatures hides important features of climate dynamics.
Roy Spencer continues with the second part of his efforts to estimate an influence of urbanization on land temperature-monitoring stations used in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Using Landsat-based data he develops an average change over 40 years (1975 to 2014) for 19,885 GHCN stations from 20N to 82.5N latitude.
Judith Curry was interviewed by Jordan Peterson. She reported on the interview but did not comment on the contents. In hopes that the text will be posted, TWTW will delay comments. It recognizes that Curry’s views on climate modeling may differ from those expressed in TWTW. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
Planning engineer Russell Schussler and New York energy commentator Roger Caiazza present traditional planning for new generation and explore characteristics for a good path moving towards Net Zero emissions of carbon dioxide in the generation of electricity. Many politicians have embraced shutting down electricity generation using fossil fuels but have not carefully considered what is available to replace them. Can the replacements provide reliable, affordable electricity?
Manhattan attorney Francis Menton continues his call for a demonstration project to be used to calculate the real costs of providing electricity through wind and solar generation plus the necessary storage.
Jennifer Marohasy continues her efforts to obtain the records of a weather station in Australia where both thermometer probes and mercury-based thermometers were used simultaneously. Such records are needed to establish a period of standardization showing both types of instruments measure the same thing the same way.
Energy professional Donn Dears begins a series to discussed materials needed to convert the automobile industry to 100% battery powered vehicles. He begins with a material that is seldom discussed – graphite.
This week, the US military shooting down weather balloons became a news fad. Weather balloons are extremely important in weather forecasting and in obtaining information needed for modern atmospheric science (rather than speculation). For example, the HITRAN database used by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer is based on laboratory measurements under ideal conditions. Pressure and temperature, however, modify the cross-sections in calculable ways. The weather balloons give them the data they need to make the corrections. Cliff Mass explains the instruments on board and the wind currents that can be used to track the path of weather balloons.
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Changing Arctic Ice: Few acts better exemplify the disregard the IPCC and its authors have for scientific integrity than the sudden inclusion in the Summary for Policymakers (SPM, AR6, 2021) of a two-thousand-year hockey-stick (Figure SPM.1) under the heading “Human influence warmed the climate at a rate that is unprecedented in at least the last 2000 years.” The graph even shows the recent warming greater than the “Warmest multi-century period in more than 100,000 years.” Not stated is that the reconstruction is made of tiny bits and pieces of proxy data, not standardized, or calibrated to ensure they measure the same thing. It is like calling furniture made of sawdust and glue with a thin veneer solid wood. In a long series of posts, discussed in past TWTWs, Stephen McIntyre has demolished this false “hockey-stick..”
In a clear video with text, Jim Steele discusses the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability or Multidecadal Oscillation which represents 20 plus years of warmer temperatures in the north Atlantic than the south, then reversing. He concludes:
“This oscillation is intimately linked to variability of the surface currents in the Atlantic’s surface Meridional Overturning circulation within the Ocean Conveyor Belt.
“First detected in the 1980s and officially named around 2000, the positive phase represents a warmer north Atlantic that is linked to several climate dynamics. From the 1930s to 60s and then 1990s to present, the positive warm phases were associated with less Arctic sea ice, increased Sahel rainfall, increased hurricane activity, and frequent heat extremes in the southwestern USA.
“The negative phase from the 1960s to 1990 …, saw a reversal of those dynamics as Arctic sea ice rebounded from its 1930s low extent. Accordingly, a 40-year research project over the Arctic ocean during a cool phase and published in 1993 determined there was an “absence of evidence for greenhouse warming” over the Arctic ocean.”
To build to this conclusion, Steele starts:
However, a dubious narrative uncritically attributes rising CO2 to those [Arctic temperature] anomalies, then speculates about a future warming crisis while ignoring important natural dynamics such as ocean currents.
But there is a wealth of scientific research that has shown ocean currents can also cause those higher temperature anomalies, but that isn’t obvious from this anomaly illustration. To add to the misunderstanding, the high Arctic temperatures are paradoxically due to heat ventilating out from the ocean and cooling the earth, thus actually preventing future extreme warming.
The warm 2016 winter temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific were caused by a natural El Nino event that also ventilated heat previously stored in the western Pacific, briefly warming the air but again actually cooling the earth.
El Nino events also contribute to warmer sea surface temperatures simply by reducing the trade winds that drive upwelling of cold subsurface water. Such warming when upwelling is inhibited is observed globally. For example, a 3-month study showed how monthly changes in wind direction … caused a 6 to 8C (11-14F) surface temperature change.
Along the coast of Oregon, when winds blow in a southward direction, upwelling is enhanced, and surface temperatures fall …
Conversely, when winds blow to the north upwelling of cooler deeper water is inhibited causing temperatures to rise by 6-8C (11-14F).
Such dramatic natural temperature changes have nothing to do with radiative heating from the sun or greenhouse gases. Nonetheless warmer temperatures from reduced upwelling are often mistakenly incorporated into the global average temperature as seen during El Nino events and then attributed to CO2 warming.
It is far more insightful to understand climate change by looking at actual temperature changes. Using publicly available national weather service data, a quick survey of subarctic temperatures on January 29th, 2023, at 60 degrees latitude just south of the Arctic Circle, reveals how ocean currents alone cause tremendous temperature differences.
Steele shows that temperatures varied significantly on that date. He further states:
“Even though all measurements were taken at the same latitude, on the same date and same time, there is a huge 40C or 73F temperature difference between the Hudson Bay and Norwegian coast.
“Indisputably, that variability is caused by heat transported northward by ocean currents and ventilated to the Arctic atmosphere. It is the ocean currents that are the Arctic’s climate ‘control knob,’ not atmospheric greenhouse warming, as witnessed by the extremely cold Hudson Bay.”
Steele gives maps showing the various currents in the North Atlantic and the Arctic and asserts that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are poorly correlated with the extent of Arctic winter sea ice. He discusses the frequently ignored deep basins in the Arctic Ocean that hold the warm and cool waters for up to two to three decades.
He then goes into the perplexing problem of the Younger Dryas, a sudden cooling lasting about 1300 years followed by a sudden warming, between roughly 12900 and 11600 years ago, which CO2 concentrations cannot explain. Steele suggests:
“Natural dynamics affect the flow of heat in the Atlantic segment of the Ocean Conveyor Belt. One dynamic is the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (or ITCZ) which caused a dramatic temperature effect at the end of the last ice age.
“Ice core data show temperatures that had been rapidly warming suddenly dropped by 20C or 36F in the northern hemisphere for about a thousand years during a cold period called the Younger Dryas (YD). In contrast, southern hemisphere temperatures slightly warmed.
“Proxy data suggests the westward trade winds and ITCZ had shifted southward causing the warm South Equatorial Current (SEC) to also shift southward. Brazil’s eastern most land, Ponta do Seixas amplified that shift by deflecting more warm water back into the south Atlantic and thus cooling the north Atlantic.
“The warmer 10,000 years of the Holocene period correlates with the ITCZ shifting northward, causing the warm South Equatorial Current to deliver more warm water across the equator, to warm the north Atlantic while cooling the south.
“A similar but smaller southward shift of the ITCZ corresponds with the Little Ice Age which mostly cooled the northern Atlantic regions. The Little Ice Age ended around 1850 as the ITCZ moved northward for our most recent 150 years.”
Steele does not discuss it but his discussion of changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may apply to the well-recognized Dansgaard-Oeschger events (D-O events). These are periods of rapid warming followed by slow cooling lasting about 1500 years. These have been observed in ice cores taken in Greenland and elsewhere in the North Atlantic and to a lesser extent in glaciers in South America and Antarctica. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, https://climateaudit.org, and Unstoppable Global Warming by Singer and Avery https://www.amazon.com/Unstoppable-Global-Warming-Updated-Expanded/dp/0742551245
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How Biased? John Christy and Roy Spencer have been examining the effects of urban heat island effects (UHI) on GHCN stations to try to estimate the influence of urbanization on reported temperature trends, which are used by government entities to monitor global warming and are used in global climate models. Spencer reports that none of the 19,885 GHCN stations experienced negative growth. Using 21×21 km grids and Landsat-based urbanization values (which he terms BU). He writes:
While we all know that urban areas are warmer than rural areas, especially at night and during the summer, does an increase in urbanization lead to spurious warming at the GHCN stations that experienced growth (which is the majority of them)?
And, even if it did, does the homogenization procedure NOAA uses to correct for spurious temperature effects remove (even partially) urban heat island (UHI) effects on reported temperature trends? [Italics in original]
“John Christy and I have been examining these questions by comparing the GHCN temperature dataset (both unadjusted and adjusted [homogenized] versions) to these Landsat-based measurements of human settlement structures, which I will just call “urbanization”.
“Here’s what I’m finding so far.
“The Strongest UHI Warming with Urbanization Growth Occurs at Nearly-Rural Stations [Boldface in original.]
“…the urban heat island effect is strongly nonlinear, with (for example) a 2% increase in urbanization at rural sites producing much more warming than a 2% increase at an urban site. This means that a climate monitoring dataset using mostly-rural stations is not immune from spurious warming from creeping urbanization, unless there has been absolutely zero growth. [Italics in original]
Spencer develops a simple model to estimate seasonal average of UHI and finds that adjustments by NOAA on the temperature trends for urbanization increase, not decrease, warming trends. He writes:
“Thus, it appears that NOAA’s homogenization procedure is spuriously warming station temperature trends (on average) when it should be cooling them. I don’t know how to conclude any different.
“Why are the NOAA adjustments going in the wrong direction? I don’t know.
“To say the least, I find these results… curious.
“OK, so how big is this spurious warming effect on land temperature trends in the GHCN dataset? [Boldface in original]
“Before you jump to the conclusion that GHCN temperature trends have too much spurious warming to be relied upon for monitoring global warming, what I have shown does not tell us by just how much the land-average temperature trends are biased upward. I will address that in Part III.
“My very preliminary calculations so far (using the UHI curves in Fig. 4 applied to the 21×21 km urbanization growth curve in Fig. 2) [Figures not shown here] suggest the UHI warming averaged over all stations is about 10-20% of the GHCN trends. Small, but not insignificant. But that could change as I dig deeper into the issue.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Good or Bad Plans: In a long post discussing plans by government entities, including New York State, Russell Schussler and Roger Caiazza bring out the difference of good and bad plans for utilities to be able to develop electrical generation plans which need a planning horizon of about 30 years. Schussler and Caiazza write:
“Bad plans assume that critical elements of the future are all known. Bad plans are narrowly constructed to a specified future. They risk not allowing the flexibility to adapt when things turn out differently than planned. Good plans look at their impacts or current decisions across a wide variety of potential futures. Good plans provide flexibility and nimbleness for when future conditions change.”
“Good generation plans recognize how people prefer to use electricity. If behavior needs to be changed, they are sensitive to the capabilities and limits of incentives. Depending on the generation mix the value of electricity will likely vary considerably across hours, days, months, and seasons. Good plans will seek to provide value. Bad plans tend not to differentiate between when and how energy might be supplied. Plans crafted based on just average use and average costs will likely not have good results. Traditionally generation planning recognized baseload, intermediate and peaking needs. While many seem to forget these distinctions when comparing alternatives, their importance has not diminished.”
“Good plans look at major environmental impacts across the production and lifetime of a resource. Bad plans tend to look only at marginal impacts when the facilities are operating. Tremendous resources and costs are incurred just getting a generating resource in place. Generally, the longer that resource can operate, the better its average environmental impact might be. Good plans should consider the realistic lifetime of potential resource. Many “green” resources projected to last 30 years fall far shy of 20 years. Conventional resources typically are capable of lasting many years beyond the thirty-year study life.”
“Good plans rely on proven technology that can fulfill the specific requirements. For example, providing power for periods of peak load is required for reliable power when it is needed most. Peak loads are typically associated with the hottest and coldest periods of the year when electricity is used for cooling and heating. Typically, those periods occur less than 5% of the time so a technology should be as low cost as possible to keep the price of electricity down during peak loads. A good plan would make the sensible decision to keep an old fossil fired plant around to help the system meet peak loads. Fossil-fired steam boiler electric generating units are a proven technology that can be used to meet this need.”
“Bad plans presume that a new technology can fulfill specific needs. A necessary component of any future system is dependable emergency capacity. For example, a system might need emergency capacity once every five years due to extreme weather either causing very high loads, an unexpected long-term outage of existing resources, or because of an extended drought of wind and solar resources. A bad plan proposes a new technology for this emergency requirement. In order to provide capacity in a zero-emissions electric system a new category of generating resources called Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR) has been suggested to keep the lights on during periods of extended low wind and solar resource availability.”
They evaluate the New York State plan and find it wanting. Among other things the Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources (DEFR) is “green hydrogen” which is, thus far, a fantasy. The authors propose a compromise plan. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Demonstration Project? In demanding a demonstration project for a grid based on renewables and storage Francis Menton discusses the skyrocketing costs of electricity in Germany, the UK and California. He writes:
“It doesn’t take a genius to figure out why the costs explode. They can build thousands of wind turbines and solar panels, but they can’t get rid of any of the dispatchable power plants because they are all needed for backup. So now they are paying for two duplicative systems. Then they must pay the dispatchable plants enough to cover their capital costs at half time usage. Then they must buy the fossil fuels for backup on spot markets where production has been suppressed by, for example, banning fracking.”
As Menton explains, many politicians and academic “experts” ignore such details. Menton concludes:
“Nobody would be happier than me to see a demonstration project built that showed that wind and solar could provide reliable electricity at low cost. Unfortunately, I know too much about the subject to think that that is likely, or even remotely possible. But at least the rest of us need to demand a demonstration project from the promoters of these fantasies.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Mysterious Vanishing? Jennifer Marohasy continues her search for records from mercury thermometers and platinum resistance probes in Mildura for September 23, 2017 – “the hottest day ever recorded.” This was branded the hottest day in Australia’s history and Mildura had both types of records. She has discovered that there are no parallel records for that day. She has received over 10,000 scanned pages from January 1, 1989, to January 31, 2015, with every day in the hot month of September 2012 missing. Marohasy draws no conclusions. See link under Measurement Issues – Surface
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I Pencil: Donn Dears begins a series to discussed materials needed to convert the automobile industry to 100% battery powered vehicles with a discussion of graphite. According to Dears:
“If every car sold in the US in 2019, the year before the pandemic, had been a battery-powered vehicle, the US would have used 1.12 million tons of graphite. More than the world consumed in 2021.”
Given that mining permits are virtually impossible to obtain in the US and Washington is denying development of Federal lands, the US automobile industry would need to import graphite from other countries such as China. See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles and Article #1
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Riding the Winds: Weather balloons are very much in the news. Cliff Mass has two posts discussing the instruments on board a typical weather balloon and how balloons can be used to take advantage of different winds at different altitudes to be guided to a particular area or region. See links under Other Scientific News.
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Beyond Groupthink: The 15th Climate Change Conference by The Heartland Institute will be held from February 23 to 25, 2023, at the Hilton Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, Florida. It will feature over 40 speakers, including members of the SEPP Board of Directors, Willie Soon and David Legates. Tom Sheahen, Howard “Cork” Hayden, and Ken Haapala will address the question: “Is Climate Science Scientific?”
Mathematician and Physicist Christopher Essex will receive SEPP’s 2022 Fredrick Seitz Memorial Award. Other featured speakers include Richard Lindzen, William Happer, Ross McKitrick, who exposed the improper use of the Gauss-Markov Theorem in CO2 attribution studies, Ian Plimer, Patrick Moore, Anthony Watts, Joe Bastardi, and many more. See https://climateconference.heartland.org/
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Number of the Week: 10% Paul Homewood reports that the BP Energy Review, 2023, shows that despite extensive fanfare over the past several decades wind and solar power only make up about 10% of world electricity generation and since 2010 there has been a bigger world-wide increase in fossil fuel electricity generation than in solar and wind generation. Coal is # 1 and growing; Gas is # 2 and growing. TWTW confirmed these statistics with energdata.net and statista.com See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Censorship
Censoring Inconvenient Truths
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 10, 2023
What looks, acts and smells like a Global News Cartel and just got hit by an Antitrust lawsuit…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 5, 2023
“BBC – Beyond Fake News”
[SEPP Comment: Beyond truth?]
Steve Hilton speaks out after Big Tech censors his Instagram post
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 6, 2023
“You may remember Steve Hilton during his time as David Cameron’s policy advisor. He has been in the US for years since then and now works with Fox News.”
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Welsh College Trains Climate Disruptors of the Future
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 8, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Why Cooking With Gas Won’t Melt Arctic Sea Ice or How Temperature Anomaly Graphs Obscure Important Climate Dynamics
By Jim Steele, A Walk On The Natural Side, Feb 6, 2023
Text: https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2023/02/average-temperature-anomalies-mislead.html
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxSi21sar7Y
Urbanization Effects on GHCN Temperature Trends, Part II: Evidence that Homogenization Spuriously Warms Trends
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 7, 20023
Climate Anxiety: A Simple Cure (Heartland conference: February 23–25, 2023)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Feb 6, 2023
Net Zero or Good Enough?
By Russell Schussler and Roger Caiazza, Climate Etc. Feb 9, 2023
We Must Demand A Demonstration Project Of A Mainly Renewables-Based Electrical Grid
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 8, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-2-8-we-must-demand-a-demonstration-project-of-a-mainly-renewables-based-electrical-grid
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers.
In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Climate change contributing to spread of antibiotic-resistant ‘superbugs’: UN report
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 7, 2023
Link to UN report: Bracing for Superbugs: Strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance.
By Staff, UNEP, Feb 7, 2023
https://www.unep.org/resources/superbugs/environmental-action
“Antimicrobial resistance or AMR is considered one of the top global public health problems. It also poses an urgent and critical threat to animal and plant health, food security and economic development.”
“The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Environment Programme.”
[SEPP Comment; According to the UNEP, We use the UN reputation and authority in publishing this report but are not responsible if it is incompetent?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
14 million Americans live within five miles of facilities emitting cancer-causing gas: report
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 8k, 2023
Link to report: Invisible Threat, Inequitable Impact
By Staff, Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb 7,2023
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/invisible-threat-inequitable-impact?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tw#read-online-content
[SEPP Comment: Dosage not discussed, only geographic distance to other facilities.]
Glacier lakes swollen by global warming threaten millions
By Staff, AFP, Feb 7, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230207-glacier-lakes-swollen-by-global-warming-threaten-millions
Link to paper: Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally
By Caroline Taylor, et al. Nature Communications, Feb 7, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36033-x
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Millions face threat of flooding from glacial lakes – (Or Maybe Not!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2023
See links immediately above.
Climate Fact Check: January 2023 Edition
Seven pieces of climate propaganda from January 2023 exposed and debunked.
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, Feb 8, 2023
Transition to we know not what
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
“One thing about climate alarmists and green revolutionaries: they don’t discourage easily. Canada’s government stumbles from scandal to fiscal mishap like some political version of Dr. Watson in those old Basil Rathbone/Nigel Bruce black-and-white B movies but its ambitions just keep increasing.”
“So how do they know that whatever plan they might one day concoct will work? Simple: They know that whatever they want to do happens because they want it to. Which is the sort of thinking one would expect among the truly obsessed.”
3 Paleontologist Studies Affirm North Sweden Was 3°C Warmer Than Today When CO2 Was Below 280 ppm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 6, 2023
Link to one paper: Forest-Limit (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) Performance in the Context of Gentle Modern Climate Warming
By Leif Kullman, American Journal of Applied Sciences, May 2022
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360897416_Forest-Limit_Betula_pubescens_ssp_czerepanovii_Performance_in_the_Context_of_Gentle_Modern_Climate_Warming
Link to second paper: Early Holocene presence of Norway spruce (Picea abies) on a high mountain nunatak in the Swedish Scandes: A further contribution to the biotic composition of the first deglaciated landscape and a link between past and present
By Leif Kullman, International Journal of Science and Research, June 2022
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361164499_Early_Holocene_presence_of_Norway_spruce_Picea_abies_on_a_high_mountain_nunatak_in_the_Swedish_Scandes_A_further_contribution_to_the_biotic_composition_of_the_first_deglaciated_landscape_and_a_link_be
Link to third paper: Treeline Ecotone Progression and Stability: Time Series Analysis of Individual Photographic Data 1973-2021 in the Swedish Scandes
By Leif Kullman and Lisa Oberg, Advances In Image and Video Processing, April 2022
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/360256408_Treeline_Ecotone_Progression_and_Stability_Time_Series_Analysis_of_Individual_Photographic_Data_1973-2021_in_the_Swedish_Scandes
[SEPP Comment: Based on the three papers, cannot draw the same conclusions as Richard does.]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Craig Idso on CO2 Benefits: A Summary
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 8, 2023
Gross primary productivity trends in China (1982-2015)
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive: “So, based on the results of the study presented above, not only is the vegetation across China in the midst of a long period of great productivity gains, those gains are primarily linked to the very factor climate alarmists contend should be causing vegetative dieback, i.e., rising temperature. Climate alarmists couldn’t be more wrong!”
Problems in the Orthodoxy
India Predicts 500% Increase In Domestic Natural Gas Demand
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2023
“Currently the UK’s gas consumption is slightly higher than India’s, so any reduction here will quickly be offset in India.”
Seeking a Common Ground
My interview with Jordan Peterson
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 6, 2023
Link to podcast: The Models Are OK, the Predictions Are Wrong | Dr. Judith Curry | EP 329
By Jordan Peterson, Youtube, Feb 6, 2023
We Can ‘Fix’ The Climate Without Destroying Our World
By Denis de Bernardy, American Thinker, Feb 8, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/02/we_can_fix_the_climate_without_destroying_our_world.html
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Alternative reality
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
Models v. Observations
CMIP6 GCM Validation Based on ECS and TCR Ranking for 21st Century Temperature Projections and Risk Assessment
By Nicola Scafetta, Atmosphere, Feb 9, 2023
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/14/2/345
From abstract: “If the global warming reported by the climate records is overestimated, the real ECS and TCR may be significantly lower than what is produced by the CMIP6 GCMs, as some independent research have already suggested, which would invalidate all of the CMIP6 GCMs.”
Hyping Maximum Daily Temperatures (Part 5)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Feb 8, 2023
Expert BoM excuses about a solar panel leaning on bushes near Sydney’s official thermometer.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 3, 2023
Changing Weather
Record Cold In New England, As Natural Gas Comes To The Rescue Again
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 5, 2023
“The fossil fuels that Joe Biden has promised to eliminate from the grid by 2035 supplied 65% of New England’s electricity at 8.00pm on Friday night. The wind and solar that he thinks the US can run on only managed a paltry 4%.”
1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 9, 2023
Record Heat Of February 1954
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 9, 2023
Changing Seas
Despite all that CO2, the world’s corals are doing OK
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 9, 2023
Link to report: Coral in a Warming World: Causes for Optimism
By Peter Ridd, GWPF, February 2023
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2023/02/Ridd-State-of-Coral-Reefs.pdf?mc_cid=4123d51bfe&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
“The bottom line: The Reefs may or may not be fine, but science is in trouble.
“Although it is extremely encouraging news, the latest statistics about coral reefs around the world, and especially recent ones from the GBR, do not prove that the world’s reefs are all going to be fine. However, they prove without any shadow of a doubt that the coral reef science community, with a few exceptions, is lacking in scientific integrity. They have cried wolf too often.”
Sea Level Is Stable Around The World… The Good News The Media Don’t Want Us To Hear
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 7, 2023
Link to report: Sea level is stable around the world
By [the late] Dr. Jay Lehr, Dennis Hedke, CFACT, Jan 9, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/01/09/sea-level-is-stable-around-the-world/
From the report: “The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its coastal sea level tide gauge data which continue to show no evidence of accelerating sea level rise.” [Boldface added]
New Study: 88% Of Venice’s Shoreline Is Now Stable Or Expanding As Sea Level Rise Slows Since 1970
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 9, 2023
Link to latest paper: Combining remote sensing analysis with machine learning to evaluate short-term coastal evolution trend in the shoreline of Venice
By S. Fogarin, et al. Science of the Total Environment, Feb 10, 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969722073934
[SEPP Comment: Note that the latest paper applies only to the shoreline around Venice. Broader studies are earlier.]
The Nation Flounders on Miami Sea-Level Rise Story
By Sterling Burnett and Anthony Watts, Heartland Institute, Feb 8, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Polar bear that mauled to death Alaskan mother and baby was an adult male in poor condition
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 6, 2023
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Congress’ ‘biggest fight’ over climate? It’s the farm bill.
By Adam Aton, E & E News, Feb 1, 2023
“That’s thanks in part to the Inflation Reduction Act allocating about $20 billion of climate money to preexisting farm bill programs.”
[SEPP Comment; Over the past 60 years, possibly the federal government’s most successful social program was President Kennedy’s campaign against hunger which became part of the Kennedy/Johnson War on Poverty. Did it lead to obesity?]
Lowering Standards
BBC Refuse To Correct Blatantly False Hurricane Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2023
How Those Rainfall Projections Turned Out
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 10, 2023
“Is this the best the Met Office can do?”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Plot spoiler: it will fail
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
Once upon a time The Economist would have derided writing like: ‘The idea is that, with government action, America can reindustrialise itself, bolster national security, revive left-behind places, cheer up blue-collar workers and dramatically reduce its carbon emissions all at the same time.’
[SEPP Comment: A soviet styled economy without the political prison camps?]
BBC’s Solar Power Misinformation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 10, 2023
“WOW!! Most people reading this would believe that electricity from fossil fuels is declining rapidly, while solar and wind power now claim a share well over 20%.
“Most of those same readers would be unaware what the BBC mean by ‘capacity’, or that ‘capacity’ and ‘generation’ are two totally separate and different things.
“And when we look at generation, we can see how badly misled those readers have been:
“Far from being major players, wind and solar together only supply 10% of the world’s electricity. And since 2010, the increase in fossil fuel generation has exceeded that of wind and solar.
“A rather different picture to the one the BBC would like you believe, I think you might agree!”
Climate Fact Check: January 2023 Edition
Seven pieces of climate propaganda from January 2023 exposed and debunked.
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, Feb 8, 2023
Weather in Texas, climate in New York
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
Reuters Are Challenged Over Partisan Reporting On Climate
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 4, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Now they tell us
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
At any rate The Atlantic’s ‘Weekly Planet,’ temporarily under new management, suddenly pats us on the head with ‘1.5 Degrees Was Never the End of the World/ The most famous climate goal is woefully misunderstood.’ Silly us. Wherever did we get that idea?
Thinking Out Loud: Ignorance Scales
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, Jan 31, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/01/31/thinking-out-loud-ignorance-scales-16849
[SEPP Comment: When does an “embellishment” become a lie?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
“instability of fossil fuels”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Feb 9, 2023
The LA Times blames high energy prices on ‘the instability of fossil fuels’”
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Kevon Martis Responds to ‘Heated’ Ad Hominem
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Feb 10, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Street Blocking “Last Generation” Climate Protesters Caught Taking 18,000 km Holiday Flight To Thailand!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 3, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Footballers To Wear Green Armbands To Save The Planet!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 6, 2023
“Will somebody please tell me this is a joke?”
[SEPP Comment: Will they stop flying?]
Questioning European Green
UKCP Summer Temperature Projections [in 2009] Are Not Supported By The Data
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2023
“It is time that DEFRA [Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs] dropped the make-believe, corrupt advice from the Met Office, and employed a team of independent experts to advise them who are not tainted by self-interest.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
EVs Are Designed for ChatGPT – Not “Carbon Units”
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Feb 08, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/02/08/evs_are_designed_for_chatgpt__not_carbon_units_880298.html
“Lest anyone forget, carbon-based life forms have declared war on carbon, which means war on themselves.”
Vermont to become first state to ban CFL lightbulb sales
By Michael Mahar and Michael Bartiromo, The Hill, Feb 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: How quickly the “green savior” has fallen.]
Litigation Issues
Judge declines to block Nevada lithium mine but says feds violated law
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Feb 8, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
The price of Britain’s mad fracking ban
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2023
“The UK spent £60bn importing gas in just four months to stave off a winter energy crunch, according to analysis from storage experts Highview Power.”
[SEPP Comment: But the ban saves us from global warming?]
Energy Issues — US
Preventing Energy Poverty
By Derrick Hollie, Real Clear Energy, Feb 06, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/02/06/preventing_energy_poverty_879436.html
Washington Governor Jay Inslee mandates an all-electric state
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, Feb 7, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/02/07/washington-governor-jay-inslee-mandates-an-all-electric-state/
In New York, A Very Slow Political Awakening
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Feb 4, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-2-4-in-new-york-a-very-slow-political-awakening
[SEPP Comment: Explaining that some in New York are calling “cap and trade” (also called cap and tax) “cap and invest.” An “investment” with a negative rate of return?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Trade War III
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
“But why ‘selfish’? Well, among the less appreciated and apparently unanticipated attributes of America’s misleadingly named ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ is that the flood of subsidies into unproven technology has created pressure for many other governments to leap into the sorts of ‘beggar thy neighbor’ trade policies that, in the 1930s, also managed to ‘beggar thy citizens’ and ‘cause wars.’ So who could resist?”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Let Appalachia’s Energy Lead the Way
Dave Callahan & Charlie Burd & Rob Brundrett, Real Clear Energy Feb 9, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/2023/02/09/let_appalachias_energy_lead_the_way_880513.html
Link to: Benchmarking Methane and Other GHG Emissions Of Oil & Natural Gas Production in the United States
By Tom Curry, et al., Clean Air Task Force and Ceres, July 2022
From key findings: “Pneumatic controllers were the largest source of total reported production-segment methane emissions, making up 62% of total reported methane emissions.”
“In gas-heavy basins, associated gas is limited or non-existent; for example, there was no reported associated gas venting and flaring in the Appalachian basin. Across all basins, associated gas venting and flaring was responsible for 14% of total reported onshore production segment GHG emissions.”
BP makes record profit in 2022, slows shift from oil
By Ron Bousso and Shadia Nasralla, Reuters, Feb 4, 2023
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-profits-soar-record-28-bln-dividend-increased-2023-02-07/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
A Reliable Electricity Supply – Six Months and Half a Dozen Years
By Kelvin Kemm, WUWT, Feb 9, 2023
“Imagine that you have just undergone open heart surgery and you’re in the Intensive Care Unit; ask yourself; would you rather have the Intensive Care Unit attached to solar and wind power, or attached to coal and nuclear power?”
Top 10 nuclear energy-producing countries
By Mariam Ahmad, Energy Digital, Feb 8, 2023
https://energydigital.com/top10/top-10-nuclear-energy-producing-countries
[SEPP Comment: Ranking countries based on nuclear generation of electricity.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Why Are Whales Dying Off the East Coast?
By Collister Johnson, Real Clear Energy, Feb 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/02/10/why_are_whales_dying_off_the_east_coast_880882.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Are Pencils in Danger?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 7, 2023
California Dreaming
California plays ‘hardball’ with Colorado River states over cutbacks
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 8, 2023
Newsom calls for federal probe into soaring natural gas prices
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Feb 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Political efforts to restrict production have nothing to do with increasing prices?]
Environmental Industry
Fact Vs. Fear
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Jan 31, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/01/31/fact-vs-fear-16847
“…the PFAS [per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances] in blood has been dramatically reduced over the years. Human blood levels are 70% to 90% lower than in 1999.
“It may have been understandable to use the EPA data if no other data were available, but that is not the case; in fact, the EWG article references FDA studies but hides the results in supplemental tables – another tried-and-true tactic of deceptive articles.”
Other Scientific News
Was the Chinese Balloon on A Spy Mission? Meteorologists Can Help Determine the Answer
By Cliff Mass, Weather blog, Feb 5, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2023-02-05T20:22:00-08:00&max-results=2&start=2&by-date=false
The Truth About Weather Balloons
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 7, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-truth-about-weather-balloons.html
“Roughly 1000 radiosondes are launched twice a day around the world.”
“And weather balloons don’t get far before they fall to earth–no more than 100 miles or so, even with the strongest winds aloft.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Who knew Scottish wind turbines are kept warm with diesel power…
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 7, 2023
Dozens of giant turbines at Scots windfarms powered by diesel generators
Scottish Power admitted 71 of its windmills were hooked up to the fossil fuel supply after a fault developed with their power supply.
By John Ferguson, Daily Record, Feb 5, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/dozens-scottish-power-wind-turbines-29135763
Al Gore boils over in Davos
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Feb 8, 2023
Climate Aristocrat Bill Gates Invokes the Special Person Defence for Private Jet Use
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 8, 2023
I Am Part Of The Solution–Bill Gates
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: If he is “the solution” should I follow him?]
Sea Level Check – Bill Gates’ Mansion, San Diego CDN 75.2K subscribers
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 9, 2023
“$43 million beach house.”
ARTICLES
1. Did Biden Forget Permitting Reform?
An example of why his SOTU speech was bipartisan in name only.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb. 8, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-sotu-speech-permitting-reform-bipartisanship-democrats-republicans-public-works-11675894110?mod=hp_opin_pos_5#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“President Biden’s speech writers put a bipartisan coat of paint on his State of the Union address on Tuesday, but only in service of lecturing Republicans to pass the same agenda he couldn’t pass when Democrats ran the House. He barely mentioned anything Republicans want, and the bipartisanship that didn’t bark was any mention of permitting reform for public works and other projects.
“Remember permitting reform? It’s a Republican priority, and Democrats promised Sen. Joe Manchin a vote on it in return for signing off on the Inflation Reduction Act. The issue failed to pass the Senate last year because the West Virginian didn’t write his bill with serious GOP input. One provision would have given federal regulators broad authority to approve electricity transmission lines, including socializing their costs. Some Democrats opposed Mr. Manchin’s plan because they want to stop all fossil-fuel projects.
“Mr. Biden could help cut this Gordian knot, but he never mentioned the issue. Instead, he told the country that drillers shouldn’t be afraid to invest in new production, because ‘we’re going to need oil for at least another decade.’ Try not to laugh, although many Members of Congress couldn’t help themselves. Only a decade? American energy consumption in 2021 was 79% fossil fuels, 12% renewables and 8% nuclear.
“Mr. Biden’s target is 100% clean electricity by 2035. To hit his climate goals, according to a report last year in E&E News, ‘annual installation of new wind and solar generation would have to increase from two to seven times historical levels.’ How does he expect to do that without cutting the red tape that ties up construction of all kinds?”
The editorial discusses a solar project in the desolate Mojave Desert where Big Horn Sheep are being used to prevent permitting, then it concludes:
Sclerosis by government has become a chronic American disease, and a permitting deal could be structured to speed a range of projects, from pipelines to wind farms. If Mr. Biden is serious about bipartisanship, he should get Democrats and Republicans together and begin hashing out some compromises.
Alas, from the sound of his State of the Union speech, he’s more interested in posturing for the climate left as he prepares for 2024. [Boldface added]
************************
2. DEI Spells Death for the Idea of a University
Wherever this agenda is allowed to take root, free expression and academic integrity are doomed.
By Matthew Spalding, WSJ, Feb. 10, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/dei-spells-death-for-the-idea-of-a-university-diversity-equity-inclusion-academia-college-hillsdale-new-college-of-florida-open-discourse-1d2ca552?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
The vice president of Hillsdale College writes:
“The first object of government, James Madison tells us in Federalist 10, is the protection of ‘the diversity in the faculties of men.’ By diversity, Madison meant different opinions to be encouraged to preserve liberty. Equity is an ancient legal concept of justice in particular cases, developed over centuries of English common-law practice. Inclusion simply means to make a part of, as in defining a mathematical set by what it does and doesn’t include.
“All good words with respectable origins. Yet in true Orwellian fashion, they have been redefined.
“Diversity is no longer a term to describe the breadth of our differences but a demand to flatter and grant privileges to purportedly oppressed identity groups. Equity assigns desirable positions based on race, sex and sexual orientation rather than character, competence and merit. Inclusion now means creating a social environment where identity groups are celebrated while those who disagree are maligned.
“‘Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion’—the compound form of these modern concepts—is especially toxic. It divides us by social identity groups, ranks those groups on privilege and power, and excludes those who fail to honor the new orthodoxy. Rather than being equally endowed with innate dignity and fundamental rights as human beings—best judged by our character and not skin color—we are supposed to discriminate and confer status based on race, sex and cultural affinity.
“This isn’t merely a conceptual problem. DEI initiatives have proliferated in higher education. There are offices, deans and vice presidents of diversity, equity and inclusion at most colleges and universities, such as New College of Florida, where I have recently been appointed a trustee. One review of top universities found an average of 45 DEI staff members at each school (about one DEI staffer for every 30 professors). Another study found that 20% of academic job postings require DEI statements as a requirement of employment or promotion.
“College is a partnership between faculty and students focused on learning and pursuing knowledge. It’s ultimately about the enduring question of human flourishing. Freshman orientation shouldn’t be a re-education session. DEI may be the heart of the woke movement, but it deadens the academic mind.
“A recent report from the National Association of Diversity Officers in Higher Education speaks of ‘creating a framework for diversity officers to advance anti-racism strategies, particularly anti-Black racism, at their respective institutions of higher education.’ How? Through curriculum and pedagogy for sure, but also through admissions, campus culture, institutional structures, policies, hiring, promotions and employee training. In short, everything.”
Mr. Spalding makes clear he is referring to a particular department or faculty, but a general trend. He concludes:
“DEI attacks the integrity of the academic project. Instead of listening to divergent voices, ears are shut. Instead of the free expression of contrary opinions, chilling self-censorship takes place. Instead of a campus open to all, one finds a narrow doorway through which only an approved few may enter. If the right pieties and homilies aren’t made, ostracization and exclusion become the norm rather than the exception. Unanimity, inequality and exclusion—Orwellian indeed.”
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