The Week That Was: 2023-01-14 (January 14, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” — Albert Einstein
Number of the Week: 3.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per square meter)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW raises a range of issues which include the fact that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not test the main results of their reports against all available physical evidence. AMO physicist Howard Hayden discusses the failure to apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law, which affects all objects orbiting the Sun including the Earth. The latest IPCC Assessment Report (AR-6, 2021) has major gaps in understanding that basic physical science about the solar system.
Geologist Ian Plimer brings up the need to address major changes in the Earth’s climate in scales of time. There are many influences on the Earth’s climate and when politicians claim they can stop climate change they do not understand that which they say.
Electrical Planning Engineer Russell Schussler has said: “the electric grid is the largest, most wonderful, most complex machine ever.” This week, he addresses what makes the grid robust, strong, and capable of withstanding sudden shocks. He also explains what weakens it, making it more prone to failure.
Almost fifty years ago, under President Carter, the dominant fear in Washington was that the US was about to run out of oil and natural gas, both of which were used to generate electricity. One of the solutions was generating electricity with extensive solar plants in the US Southwest. Writing in the National Review, Southwest Public Policy Institute researcher D. Dowd Muska evaluates the success or failure of massive expenditures in the Southwest for solar power.
The US Consumer Product Safety Commission has proposed banning the use of new natural gas stoves based on using rigorous mathematics to produce absurd results.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host the 2023 UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP 28) in Dubai, a luxury city built on oil wealth. UAE’s choice of president for the convention is causing a stir.
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Is Earth in the Solar System? The concept that the Earth orbits the sun was finally accepted after over a century of philosophical debate on the movement of heavenly bodies after “On the Revolutions of the Celestial Spheres” by Nicolas Copernicus was published in 1543 about the time of his death. Up to that time, most astronomers in Europe and India considered the Earth was stationary and all planets moved around it. The Danish astronomer Tycho Brahe, who rejected the ideas of Copernicus, believed the controversy could be resolved by carefully observing the movement of heavenly bodies. But it was his assistant, Johannes Kepler who used the observations to propose that the movements of planets were in ellipses with the sun as one of the foci. This and the work of Galileo on acceleration paved the way for Isaac Newton.
It seems as if many commentators on climate change are locked in a similar controversy that can only be resolved by careful observations. Is carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important determinant of the earth’s temperature or is it a bit player in a complex system that is not fully understood?
In an interview by Tom Nelson, Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden explains that the UN IPCC, whose reports are used to claim that CO2 is an important determinant of Earth’s temperatures, understands the Stefan-Boltzmann law which determines the radiant heat power emitted from a surface, but does not apply it to the output temperatures of their climate models. In 1879, Austrian physicist Josef Stefan discovered the experimental result that the total radiant heat power emitted from a surface is proportional to the fourth power of its absolute temperature. In 1884, Austrian physicist Ludwig Boltzmann derived the relationship from thermodynamic considerations, and in 1900 Max Planck derived the constant of proportionality from first principles. It took the IPCC reports over thirty years to finally mention this law explicitly, and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) got it wrong, in stating that a hotter planet radiates more energy to space. The surface of Venus is hot enough to melt lead but radiates less energy to space than does the earth. (Compared to the radiant heat power emitted by the surface of the Earth, the geothermal energy emitted by the core is insignificant although subsurface oceanic and surface volcanoes can significantly change the greenhouse effect temporarily by increasing water vapor and emitting aerosols.)
During the interview, Hayden takes us through the various heat balance drawings used by the IPCC from 1995 to 2021 and asks what is missing. It is not until the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) that a number appears for the greenhouse effect (G) but that number does not appear in the heat-balance drawing in AR6. (Again, the greenhouse effect is vital for complex life on the surface of the planet and adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere will increase the Earth’s temperatures somewhat, other things being constant. The question is how much?)
The five heat-balance charts presented by the IPCC since 1995 show surface emission values (in watts per square meter) that are correct for known surface temperatures at the time, but there are three major failures. The first is that none of the heat-balance charts shows the greenhouse effect, the number that is supposedly IPCC’s specialty. The second is that IPCC has never understood that the radiative forcing (IPCC terminology) from greenhouse gases simply adds to the greenhouse effect. The third is that there are no heat-balance drawings corresponding to any IPCC predictions of the future. It is a trivial matter to show that the increase in ability to block IR from going to space (“radiative forcing”) from doubling CO2 concentration is totally incompatible with the increase in surface radiation that Stefan-Boltzmann says must occur with the predicted increase in surface temperature, but IPCC’s omissions disguise the outrageous incompatibility. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Scales of Time: Writing in Spectator, Australia, geophysicist Ian Plimer brings out the importance of understanding scales of time in discussing climate change. He begins:
“For more than 80 per cent of time, Earth has been a warm wet greenhouse planet with no ice. We live in unusual times when ice occurs on continents. This did not happen overnight. The great southern continent, Gondwanaland, formed about 550 million years ago. It occupied 20 per cent of the area of our planet and included Antarctica, South America, Australia, South Africa, and the Indian subcontinent. Gondwanaland was covered by ice when it drifted across the South Pole 360-255 million years ago. Evidence for this ice age is in the black coal districts of Australia, South Africa, and India.
“The breakup of Gondwanaland started about 180 million years ago. About 140-120 million years ago, Australia was joined to Antarctica and enjoyed a temperate climate, had alpine glaciers that shed icebergs into warm seas and plant and animal adaptations evolved to cope with the long periods of winter darkness.
“If Antarctica is to lose its ice sheets to end the current ice age, plate tectonics must move the continent northwards or fragment Antarctica into smaller land masses. Parts of Antarctica are currently being fragmented which is why there are more than 150 hot spots and volcanoes in rift valleys beneath Antarctic ice. Plate tectonics must also widen the Bering Strait to allow more warm Pacific Ocean water to enter and warm the Arctic.
“Australia separated from Antarctica 100 million years ago and continues to move northwards at 7 centimeters per year. The current ice age started when South America separated from Antarctica some 34 million years ago. Plate tectonics isolated Antarctica after South America had moved northwards and the Drake Passage formed. Circum-polar currents formed and prevented warm, southward-moving water from reaching Antarctica. As a result, the Antarctic ice sheets formed.
“Arctic ice formed 2.5 million years ago when plate tectonic-driven volcanoes in central America joined North America to South America and stopped Pacific and Atlantic Ocean waters from mixing. This was exacerbated by a supernova explosion that bombarded Earth with cosmic particles to produce cloudiness and cooling.
“The Earth has been slowly cooling for the last 50 million years from times when life thrived and rapidly diversified. In these warmer times, there were no mass extinctions due to natural warming and, if the planet is warming today, the past shows us that life will thrive and diversify even more.”
Plimer illustrates the foolishness by some commentators in asserting that an estimated global temperature and an estimated carbon dioxide concentration for a period tens of millions ago can be used to estimate the influence of carbon dioxide on Earth’s temperatures today. The Earth is ever changing, and those changes have major influences on the Earth’s temperatures. As Plimer writes:
“On a scale of tens of millions of years or more, the Earth’s climate is driven by plate tectonics. On a scale of hundreds of thousands of years, the Earth’s climate is driven by orbital cycles which bring Earth closer to or more distant from the Sun. On a scale of thousands of years to decades, the Earth’s climate is driven by variations in energy emitted from the Sun.”
“If governments, the UN or climate activists want to stop the normal planetary process of climate change, then they need to stop plate tectonics, stop variations in the Earth’s orbit and stop variations in solar output.”
After discussing the impact of the last period of glaciation which reached its maximum 18,000 to 20,000 years ago, Plimer concludes:
“We are putting all our efforts and wasting trillions of taxpayers’ dollars into trying to prevent mythical human-induced global warming, yet we still don’t prepare for the inevitable annual floods, droughts, and bushfires, let alone longer-term solar – and orbitally – driven global cooling.
“We have a crisis of single-minded stupidity exacerbated by a dumbed-down education system supported by incessant propaganda, driven by financial interests and political activist authoritarianism.”
That many politicians claim they can stop climate change is pure hubris, from Greek tragedy of excessive self-pride leading to retribution. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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The Right Thing? Writing in Judith Curry’s blog, Climate Etc., Planning Engineer Russell Schussler asks are academics and others suggesting significant changes to the grid studying the right things? He finds that in general they are not. Schussler writes:
“Part 1 of this series discussed how the findings of academics are often misunderstood so as to make the transition to a high level of renewable penetration seem much easier than it will be. A major part of the problem is that academics study some problems, determine those are solvable and that is then misinterpreted to imply that greater emerging problems are also solved or easily solvable. In this posting we will look at what Academics are studying to determine if they are asking the right questions.”
Importantly, Schussler defines what makes a grid system robust:
“What makes a system strong or robust? In additions to high-capacity transmission lines, the anchoring source is large rotating machines that operate in synchronism with the grid. They provide inertia, they can respond quickly through ramping, they can inject vars, they increase short circuit MVA (mega volt amperes). All good things necessary for a reliable power system. Asynchronous generation, sources which don’t spin with the system, such as wind and solar, do not as readily add strength to a system; rather they tend to lean on other resources.
“Synchronous generators provide essential reliability services which are needed for the operation of the grid. The primary services are voltage control, frequency control, and balancing services. Conventional generators (coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro) readily provide these services because they rotate in synchronism with the grid. Not all resources do. To quote from the US Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy”:
‘However, newer technologies such as wind, solar, many energy storage technologies, and new types of load controls operate through the use of power electronics and control systems that don’t operate in the same way as historic technologies. Newer technologies offer interesting (bold italics added) opportunities because their control systems can be tuned to operate similar (bold italics added) to conventional generation.’
‘Rest assured the ‘interesting opportunities’ offered by newer technologies will be extremely challenging, and before these challenges can be met much research development and successful engineering will need to be performed or the system will dangerously degrade. Also note the use of the word “similar”; do not believe that it means “similarly well in a satisfactory manner.” (I can throw a football similar to the way Tom Brady does but believe me I could not sustain a high school offensive drive.) The challenges associated with integrating large amounts of wind and solar do not consist of minor details that can easily be worked out once we find a way to get enough megawatt hours at the right time from wind and solar resources to replace fossil fuel resources. Wind and solar will add complexity, cost, and uncertainty for a long time. The less well these resources perform, the greater the likelihood of service reductions and blackouts. As noted, solar, wind and batteries, when providing power to the grid, typically lean on conventional technology.
“It is a crucial question as to what will provide support when wind and solar have displaced the major supporting elements of the power grid. Hydro capacity is pretty well maxed out in most locations. Nuclear has potential to reduce CO2 while supporting the system but faces considerable social and political challenges. Without some currently unspecified approach to add significant robustness to the system through the provision of essential reliability services, the increased retirement of conventional synchronously rotating generation and its replacement with asynchronous wind and solar will continue to make blackouts and outages more frequent and severe. There is much work to be done to make solar and wind better emulate essential reliability services, but such work is in the early stages and the results are at best mixed. Let’s look at what is being studied by academics supporting a net zero transition. One would hope that these major concerns would be a prime area of discussion and research within the academic community.”
Schussler discusses an article on scholarly publications relating to Net Zero including Energy System Models. He notes:
“What’s striking and most concerning is what is not found in this graphic of key words. Reliability, stability, inertia, voltage control, balancing, vars, spinning reserve, ramping, quick standby, contingencies, damping and oscillations for example. Words commonly associated with the interconnection process of new resources are nowhere to be found within this review of academic papers on the subject of a net zero transaction. Another notable omission is nuclear. Nuclear power is the best hope for a low carbon resource that could provide critical grid support. Is the group collectively serious?”
Schussler discusses some “possibilities” of what may be in the future but do not exist today such as the “Supergrid.” He concludes:
The academic literature arguing for a net zero transition of the electric grid focuses on lesser problems and ignores the larger roadblocks. As a whole the body of studies might be seen to falsely suggest that the transition is within reach. The papers in this literature should include the disclaimer: “This paper only looks at a limited set of problems associated with a net zero transition. Solving the problem(s) studied here still leaves many unsolved and potentially unsolvable problems on the table and furthermore it is likely that this solution may aggravate existing problems as well as creating new ones.” Barring major breakthroughs in the areas of critical technical challenges (which don’t seem to be receiving a lot of attention at the policy level) the grid cannot reliably support the envisioned increase penetration of wind and solar need to get anywhere close to a net zero goal. Influential academics as a body encouraging an energy transition while focusing on lesser concerns, discussing remote hopes and ignoring huge obstacles will lead to increased likelihoods of greater costs, worsening reliability and eventually unbearable blackouts.
Schussler links to a video illustrating how quickly a substation fire in Florida impacted the Eastern Interconnection demonstrating the importance of inertia in generating facilities to protect the grid from failure. It is disturbing to realize that financial regulators now think they should impose their views on the grid. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Southwest Solar: According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL) with dry conditions and a high solar gradient the US southwest is the best place in the country to locate solar power. According to D. Dowd Muska the 50-year experiment is failing:
“In the Southwest, solar generates a mere 6.4 percent of utility-scale power (power from facilities where total generation capacity is one megawatt or greater), despite the region enjoying the sunniest skies in America. While California (16.7 percent) and Nevada (14.4 percent) had the heaviest solar shares, the drop-off in the other states we studied was profound: Utah (8.1 percent), Arizona (5.5 percent), New Mexico (5.0 percent), Texas (3.1 percent), and Colorado (3.0 percent). Coming in last — and by a country mile — was the Sooner State, at a miniscule 0.1 percent.
“These disappointing figures are all the more perplexing when one considers the massive level of government succor that has flowed the solar industry’s way since the late 1970s, the era of Annie Hall, the Bee Gees, and the Star Wars Holiday Special. In 2012, an audit by the Government Accountability Office found that federal agencies have overseen hundreds of ‘initiatives that support solar energy across the four key federal roles’: R&D; ‘fleets and facilities,’ ‘commercialization and deployment,’ and ‘regulation, permitting, and compliance.’ For decades, wildly generous tax credits have been offered at the federal and state levels. And in the late 1990s, lawmakers began to adopt renewable portfolio standards, which required power suppliers to generate or purchase ‘green’ electricity. In Arizona, 15 percent of power must satisfy these standards by 2025. In Nevada, the rule is 50 percent by 2030. And in New Mexico, all electricity is mandated to be ‘zero carbon’ by 2045.”
Muska goes through the increasing energy costs, which California is experiencing significantly, and concludes:
“In short, solar has not been shining very bright since it came on the scene in the ’70s. Indeed, even in the sun-drenched Southwest, solar has proven inefficient, unreliable, and — when all costs are considered — expensive. That should be a warning: If it struggles here, in ideal conditions, how well can it be expected to perform in the rest of the country?”
One wonders about the success of the great New York government experiment to use huge subsidies to make western New York State around Buffalo a Solar Center. See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
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Linear Absurdity: The US Consumer Product Safety Commission proposed banning the sale of new stoves relying on natural gas using a new study claiming that burning natural gas causes significant asthma in children. Steve Milloy demolishes the study stating:
“It’s not actual research on children. It is a meta-analysis of previously published (and ignored) studies — a study of otherwise unpersuasive studies. The authors did a literature search for previous epidemiologic studies on gas stoves and asthma in kids and then just mixed those results together in an effort to contrive statistical significance. This is a bogus technique for a number of reasons including publications bias in the component studies — i.e., studies with null results aren’t published.”
“The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations. The study results, likely including the component studies, are not statistically significant either.
“Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.
“The claim that gas stoves are responsible for 12% of childhood asthma – an epidemiologic concept called ‘attributable risk’ – is entirely bogus because epidemiological studies can only be used to associate exposures with disease. They cannot be used to determine risk of disease because (1) the underlying data is not representative of the population; and (2) epidemiologic studies are just statistics (i.e., correlation is not causation) and cannot be used by themselves to determine cause-and-effect relationships.”
It now appears that the Federal government is abandoning the national ban. Unfortunately, many state and local government officials have succumbed to the Linear No Threshold absurdity used and will continue to ban a clean, highly effective way to heat and cook. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Article # 2.
Interesting Choice: According to an article in the Wall Street Journal:
The United Arab Emirates named the chief executive of its national oil company as the president of this year’s United Nations climate summit, drawing criticism from environmental activists.
The Gulf state said Thursday that Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or Adnoc, would be tasked with framing the agenda of the COP28 summit in Dubai, which opens at the end of November. Mr. Jaber, a top Emirati technocrat, is also the country’s minister for industry and technology and special envoy on climate change, playing a leading role in the country’s move to finance and produce more renewable and nuclear energy.
Mr. Jaber said COP28 comes during a ‘critical year in a critical decade for climate action.’ He said the U.A.E., the world’s seventh-biggest oil producer, would adopt an inclusive approach to the climate summit that ‘engages all stakeholders from public and private sectors.’
Let the screaming begin. See Article #1
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Additions and Corrections: Several readers inquired why last week’s TWTW emphasized the article written by Wallace Manheimer that appeared in the Journal of Sustainable Development. It was emphasized because it appeared in a peer reviewed journal published in North America and it is comprehensive. Frequently, US journals reject competent articles that question the findings of the IPCC. Manheimer’s article will be useful in making comments on the competence of the draft of the Fifth US National Climate Assessment due on January 27, 2023. See https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/11/10/2022-24611/availability-for-public-comment-on-the-draft-fifth-national-climate-assessment-nca5-united-states
Next week, TWTW will discuss a wide-ranging interview of MIT Physics Professor emeritus Richard Lindzen which covers many issues on how science is conducted in the United States and deficiencies in climate studies. In addition, TWTW will review the recent book The Primacy of Doubt by noted global climate modeler Tim Palmer.
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Number of the Week: 3.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per square meter) In his interview, Howard Hayden brings up that the IPCC states that a doubling of CO2 will result in an increase in surface emissions of infrared radiation of 3.7 W/m2 (3.7 Watts per square meter). The challenge is calculating how much of a temperature difference will this make?
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Howard Hayden: “The IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results”
By Tom Nelson, Podcast, Jan 10, 2022
#59 Howard Hayden: “the IPCC does NOT apply the Stefan-Boltzmann law to their results” – YouTube
What Does the Science Say? Dr. Richard Lindzen
By Jordan Peterson, Podcast, Via WUWT, Jan 8, 2023
What climate crisis?
Past warming has never been driven by an increase in carbon dioxide
By Ian Plimer, Spectator Australia, Jan 14, 2023 [H/t R Clutz]
Academics and the grid. Part II: Are they studying the right things?
By Planning Engineer (Russell Schussler), Climate Etc. Jan 9, 2023
Rapid fluctuations in oxygen levels coincided with Earth’s first mass extinction
Initial rapid decrease in marine oxygen levels was followed by a rapid increase in oxygen
Press Release, NSF, Jan 10, 2023
https://beta.nsf.gov/news/rapid-fluctuations-oxygen-levels-coincided-earths?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Link to paper: Rapid marine oxygen variability: Driver of the Late Ordovician mass extinction
By Nevin Kozir, et al., AAAS Science Advances, Nov 18, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn8345
From the abstract: “. As the only ‘Big 5’ extinction that occurred during icehouse conditions, this interval is an important modern analog to constrain environmental feedbacks.”
No, New Study Does Not Link Gas Stoves with Asthma in Children
The new study the Consumer Product Safety Commission wants to rely on to ban gas stoves is classic junk science.
By Steve Milloy, JunkScience.com, Jan 9, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
https://junkscience.com/2023/01/no-new-study-does-not-link-gas-stoves-with-asthma-in-children/
Stranded Assets
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Are battery-powered vehicles (BEVs) a fad?]
Recent paper on W. Hudson Bay polar bears includes new official sea ice freeze-up data
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 12, 2023
“In other words, body weight data–so critical to the argument that the health of WH polar bears is declining due to sea ice loss–is still being withheld.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Jay Lehr — RIP
Jay Lehr (1938 – 2023)
The Heartland Institute, Jan 11, 2023
https://www.echovita.com/us/obituaries/oh/ostrander/jay-h-lehr-15813705
Defending the Orthodoxy
Annual 2022 Global Climate Report
By Staff, NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, 2023
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213
“The year 2022 was the sixth warmest year since global records began in 1880 at 0.86°C (1.55°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F).”
[SEPP Comment: Where were the recording stations in the polar regions, bulk of Eurasia, Africa, South America, and the oceans in 1880? How does infrared radiation in a warming atmosphere penetrate the oceans beyond 1 millimeter?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate change makes heat waves, storms and droughts worse–Say weather attribution models
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
Link to report: Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective
This BAMS special report presents assessments of how human-caused climate change may have affected the strength and likelihood of extreme events.
By Stephanie Herring, NOAA, Andrew Hoell, NOAA, Nikos Christidis, UK Met Office &Peter Stott, UK Met Office, American Meteorological Society, 2023
Peer Review Editors: John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M and Texas State Climatologist, Andrew King, University of Melbourne, Tom Knutson, NOAA/GFDL and Friederike Otto, Imperial College London
https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/
“It is significant that in this latest paper there is no attempt to use real world data to prove that the events they talk of are actually getting worse. We know, for instance, that the data on hurricanes shows that they are not, a fact which is even acknowledged by official bodies such as NOAA.”
[SEPP Comment: The authors of the BAMS report are statistically challenged?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Global temperature 2022 – same again
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Jan 13, 2023
“What is quite apparent is that the global temperature record in the 21st century spends long periods relatively flat. The so-called hiatus, for instance, lasted from circa 2001 and 2013 and was ended by a very strong El Nino. Since then, there has been another period of relatively unchanging temperature. Noticeable increases in temperature occur in the lead-in to an El Nino, such as the increase of approx. 0.3°C between 2011-2015.”
“Looking at the distribution of recent warming the dominance of the arctic [2017-2021] is obvious. It almost leads one to suggest that the phrase global warming should be replaced by arctic warming!”
The Global Emissions Experiment: A 33-Year Audit
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Jan 10, 2023
It’s temperature prediction time again!
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 13, 2023
Climate Embarrassment: Anthropogenic Climate Change is a Hoax but Global Warming is Real
By ?, The Air Vent, Jan 7, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
Exxon scientists predicted current climate change 40 years ago: study
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, Jan 12, 2023
“The findings by Harvard and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research are ‘the nail-in-the-coffin of ExxonMobil’s claims that it has been falsely accused of climate malfeasance,’ lead author Geoffrey Supran, a research associate at Harvard, asserted in a statement.
[SEPP Comment: Unable to find paper. According to the article, Exxon studies, publicly available, had a skill level of 75%, James Hansen 65%. Who lied to the public? Another example of smear with no evidence?]
Happy New Highest Tide for 2023 – Sunday 22nd January
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 10, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Will the rising seas fall back again?]
Change in US Administrations
Biden officials lay out road map for net-zero transportation by 2050
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2023
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Germany To Double Gas Power Capacity
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 7, 2023
“Germany needs at least 60GW of power at peak periods. This plan will take gas power up close to 50GW, which is a startling admission that there will be times when wind and solar’s contribution will be minimal.
“Coal power capacity, including lignite, is currently 36GW, so the closure of this will be mainly offset by new gas capacity.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
HadCRUT Data Manipulation Changes 2000-2014 Warming Trend From 0.03°C to 0.14°C Per Decade
By Kenneth Richard. No Tricks Zone, Jan 9, 2023
Link to paper: CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures
By Nicola Scafetta, Climate Dynamics, Sep 18, 2023
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06493-w
“Adjustments add significant warming to 21st century temperature trends.”
Changing Weather
‘Greens’ Ignore India’s Lethal Cold Spells
Cold, which is often accompanied by disease, is a bigger killer than heat
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Jan 13, 2023
US Climate Is Getting Less Extreme, Not More
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Difference between data and headlines.]
2022 Data Are In: Pacific Typhoon Trend Continues To Drop, Alarmist Claims Contradicted!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 13, 2023
“Pacific typhoons formed and those making landfall in Japan both have seen no rising trend for the past 70 years.”
UN-hyping global climate disasters in 2022
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
German Renewable Energies Expert: Global Warming Is Going To Pause As North Atlantic Cools
By Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Klimanachrichten, (Translated, edited by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Jan 8, 2023
A 654-year streamflow history of Argentina’s Neuquen River
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
The Northwest’s Weather Scorecard at Winter’s Halfway Point
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 13, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-northwests-weather-scorecard-at.html
A reminder that cold is worse than heat
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Hence ‘Families in western New York were scrambling to find food, medicine and other essentials Monday after a historic blizzard blocked roads and cut off electricity, forcing many major supermarkets and pharmacies to close.’ Heatwaves don’t do that sort of thing.”
“Canada has an annual fundraising event for the homeless called, wait for it, ‘The Coldest Night of the Year.’ Somehow ‘The Hottest Night of the Year’ just doesn’t have the same effect.”
Trees schmees
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
Changing Climate
A Glaring Inconsistency In The Claimed Forcing Values Driving Past Versus Present Climate
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 12, 2023
Link to latest study: Last interglacial sea-level proxies in the glaciated Northern Hemisphere
By April S. Dalton, et al. Earth System Science Data, Apr 4, 2022
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/1447/2022/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Recent paper on W. Hudson Bay polar bears includes new official sea ice freeze-up data
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 12, 2023
“In other words, body weight data–so critical to the argument that the health of WH polar bears is declining due to sea ice loss–is still being withheld.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
You’re neither a farmer nor a climate scientist, are you?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“And also, at the ominous drop of atmospheric CO2 to 180 ppm during the Last Glacial Maximum, just 30 ppm above the level at which all older C3 photosynthesis plants really would die, including all the trees, though even then life would find a way.”
Lowering Standards
It’s official: Everywhere in science there’s a mysterious lack of ground-breaking papers
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Conformity to government funding?]
Fear, Flooding, Forecasting & Australia’s 2022 Official Rainfall Statistics
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 8, 2023
Link to summary: Climate summary information for 2022
By Staff, Bureau of Meteorology, Jan 6, 2023
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/
Why The WMO Refuse To Forget The Past
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 7, 2023
Coastal Erosion? Well, It’s Climate Change, Innit?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 8, 2023
[SEPP Comment: BBC avoiding the thrust of a complaint on its incompetent journalism.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Glacial Armageddon! 2/3 to vanish by 2100!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 14, 2023
Link to article: Study: Two-thirds of glaciers on track to disappear by 2100
By Seth Borenstein, AP, Jan 9, 2023
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2023-01-09/study-two-thirds-glacier-disappear-by-2100#:~:text=Mostly%20small%20but%20well%2Dknown%20glaciers%20are%20marching%20to%20extinction.&text=In%20an%20also%2Dunlikely%20worst,year%202100%2C%20the%20study%20said.
What do young climate campaigners want to see in 2023?- BBC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2023
New York Times Saves The Planet
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 12, 2023
Video: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/01/new-york-times-saves-the-planet/
Text: https://realclimatescience.com/2023/01/new-york-times-saved-the-planet/
Heat buckles roads or something
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Up to now winter has been the culprit for the heaving and freezing that demolishes roads and bridges, while heavy reliance on road salt has been a constant source of corrosion and damage to concrete structures. How will winters becoming milder ruin everything?”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Last 8 Years Were the Hottest on Record
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Jan 10, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
As Germany’s Economy Falters, Green-Socialist Government Moves To Redefine “Prosperity”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 11, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Police start clearing German village condemned for coal mine
Several dozen activists remained camped out in the village as police slowly removed further barricades in muddy conditions.
By Staff, AP, Jan 11, 2023
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/police-start-clearing-german-village-condemned-coal-mine-rcna65271
Solar Energy Rejections Soared in 2022
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/12/solar_energy_rejections_soared_in_2022_875161.html
Questioning European Green
Coal power facility to stay open for extra two years in blow to net zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 12, 2023
Green Jobs
Africa Today: A Very Different Continent, Lessons From the U.S.-Africa Summit
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Jan 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/01/10/africa_today_a_very_different_continent_lessons_from_the_us-africa_summit_874669.html
Non-Green Jobs
European Steel Industry Facing Potential Collapse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Obviously in need of subsidies?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Payments for windfarms to “switch off” soar to quarter billion pounds
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Jan 9, 2023
“Net Zero Watch’s director, Dr Benny Peiser, said:
‘Whether through utter incompetence, or shameful cynicism, the Government, National Grid and Ofgem have put in place an electricity system that allows renewables operators to rip off the consumer left, right and centre. They seem to hold UK households and businesses in contempt.’”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden administration announces largest-ever funding opportunity for addressing environmental equality
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 10, 2023
“The EPA said about $100 million would be available for projects around the country that are aimed at advancing equitable environmental outcomes for communities that are underserved or face disproportionate amounts of pollution.”
“Overall, the legislation provides the EPA with $3 billion in environmental and climate justice block grants directed toward goals like reducing pollution and mitigating climate risks.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
So, there’s a market after all
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Just months after Germany’s chancellor was sent packing by Canada’s Prime Minister when he came seeking natural gas, with a jibe about there being no market for the stuff in Europe, the first shipment from North American shores arrived. From the United States.”
Chris Skidmore’s Rubber Stamp Of Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
“Surprise, surprise!! The government’s “Independent Report” has rubber stamped its Net Zero agenda!!”
“Since its very inception, the Net Zero Act was enacted as a ‘good idea’, without any plan as to how it could be carried out, or a clearly costed budget.”
Germans Required To Replace 30-Year-Old Gas Furnaces…New Oil Furnaces Banned Starting 2026
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 7, 2023
New gas boilers could be banned within a decade [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
“Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at Oxford University and a government adviser, said the review’s estimates of costs were ‘highly speculative’, with the costs and savings of heat pumps ‘incredibly optimistic’.
“‘My own view is that the costs are likely to be much higher,’ he said.
“‘Net zero is incredibly important and I think it critical to tell the public that this is likely to mean they must pay for the pollution they cause and save to fund and finance the investment.’”
Energy Issues — US
Key figures quash suggestions of gas stove ban
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 11, 2023
Link to questionable study: Population Attributable Fraction of Gas Stoves and Childhood Asthma in the United States
By Talor Gruenwald, et al. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Dec 21, 2022
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/20/1/75
From abstract: “We found that 12.7% (95% CI = 6.3–19.3%) of current childhood asthma in the US is attributable to gas stove use.”
Vital Energy Lessons for Virginia and America
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Jan 9, 2023
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Chris Wright (Liberty Energy): Setting the Tone for 2023
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 413, 2023
Ruby, Ruby, When Will You Be Mine – Tallgrass Bid Breathes New Purpose Into Languishing Ruby Pipeline
By Shettal Nasta, RBN Energy, Jan 8, 2022
https://rbnenergy.com/ruby-ruby-will-you-be-mine-tallgrass-bid-breathes-new-purpose-into-languishing-ruby-pipeline
[SEPP Comment: New England needs natural gas, but cannot get it from Pennsylvania, much less than New York. So why not transport the gas across the continent to the West Coast that needs it?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Big solar goes Big Bust: Largest solar plant in the world dies before it can be built
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Transmit power from a 120 square kilometer (46.3 square mi, 29,653 acres) solar plant in Australia to Singapore]
Southwestern Solar: Bright Shining Disappointment
By D. Dowd. Muska, National Review, Via R. Clutz, Science Matters, Jan 9, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Carbon Capture Is a Woke Fantasy
By John M. Contino, American Thinker, Jan 12, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/01/carbon_capture_is_a_woke_fantasy.html
“If you’re wondering where the money comes from for these enterprises, the Department of Energy has announced many tens of millions of dollars in funding for research and implementation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. Additionally, carbon credits for industry are shaping up to be a powerful incentive for generating private and public investor capital.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The Coming Future Of Electric Vehicles: Something Here Does Not Add Up
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 7, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-1-7-the-coming-future-of-electric-vehicles-something-here-does-not-add-up
Electric car makers put the brakes on UK production because they are too expensive to sell
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: More subsidies needed?]
Eco Numpties Unhappy With Charging Costs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: I have to pay to charge my EV? But I’m environmentally pure!]
California Dreaming
Climate crisis in California
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
Link to: Exceptional Years: A History of California Floods and Drought
By J.M. Guinn, Historical Society of Southern California, Los Angeles (1890)
Robson: “Society of Southern California, they were not rare events: they were followed by severe floods in 1825, 1832, 1842, 1850-52, 1861-62, 1867-68, 1884 and 1886, with the deluges interrupted by repeated droughts. Yet somehow no one blamed mankind for all this trouble.”
Notwithstanding the years of deluge or dryness, he [Guinn] boasts that ‘California has the most glorious climate in the world.’ He avers that any true Californian would make this same boast, and accept the years of duress as the price to be paid for the exceptionally pleasant weather the rest of the time”
SoCalGas Shock: California Gas Prices Skyrocket 128% in One Year
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 9, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Back To The Horse & Cart
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 9, 2023
ABC News Acknowledges Young Athletes Are Dying Of Heart Attacks
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 11, 2023
“ABC News says there has been an increase in heart disease, and says it is caused by global warming.”
EV Refuse Trucks Grounded Through Lack Of Chargers!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 10, 2023
“£6.5 million for 25 lorries works out at £260,000 a piece…”
“The science isn’t that complicated”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 11, 2023
Washington Post: “California’s weather is what climate change looks like.”
You’re silencing us by not letting us silence you
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jam 11, 2023
“Our science is showing that the planet is dying. It’s terrifying. Everything is at risk. As scientists, we have tremendous leverage, but we need to use it. We can wake everybody up”.
ARTICLES
1. U.A.E. Names Oil Chief to Run COP28 Climate Summit
Environmental activists criticize appointment of Sultan al-Jaber to manage U.N. conference
By Summer Said, WSJ, Jan. 12, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-names-oil-chief-to-run-cop28-climate-summit-11673542016
TWTW Summary: In addition to the part that is included in This Week section, the following is interesting:
“A spokesperson for COP28 U.A.E. said Mr. Jaber has worked as a diplomat, government minister and business leader in the energy and renewables sector.
“‘His experience uniquely positions him to be able to convene both the public and private sector to bring about pragmatic solutions to achieve the goals and aspirations of the Paris Climate Agreement,’ the spokesperson said.
“Climate activists previously criticized Egypt for extending the first invitation to oil-and-gas companies to take part in COP27, which was hosted in the Red Sea resort town, Sharm El Sheikh. Climate activists said Gulf oil producers blocked stronger language on phasing down fossil fuels in the final agreement.”
COP28 may be an interesting conference.
*********************
2. Kathy Hochul’s Latest Brainstorm
The Governor wants to ban natural gas in all New York buildings.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 10, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kathy-hochuls-latest-brainstorm-new-york-natural-gas-ban-fossil-fuels-11673393016?mod=hp_opin_pos_5#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The brief article begins:
“Governor Kathy Hochul recently lamented that too many people are leaving New York, and the state had to do more to get them back. The latest evidence that she has no idea how to do it is her proposal on Tuesday to ban the use of fossil fuels in all new buildings.
“She’d ban the use of fossil fuels for heating and in appliances in all new small structures as early as 2025, and in larger buildings by 2028. You won’t be able to buy a natural-gas heating system in the state starting in 2030.
“She said in her State of the State address Tuesday that this will combat climate change, which is nonsense. What New York does to limit CO2 emissions will be dwarfed by emissions from China, India and Africa.
“Meanwhile, she will make New Yorkers even more dependent on an electrical-power grid that is increasingly unreliable. The state has closed a large nuclear plant, has blocked natural gas pipelines through the state, and is making itself more dependent on offshore wind power that may not be developed.”
Rising energy costs and increasing unreliability will prompt people leaving the state to return?
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