The Week That Was: 2022-11-26 (November 26, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “A change in one of the variables that describe a system at equilibrium produces a shift in the position of the equilibrium that counteracts the effect of this change.” — Le Chatelier’s Principle, 1884
Number of the Week: $1.1 billion of $6 billion
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The UN’s intoxicating annual dance of the sugar plum fairies is over (COP 27) is over and is planned to occur next year (COP 28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, a show case of the luxury provided by the use of fossil fuels in the once small fishing village on the edge of the barren desert. The irony is fitting. Over the past few years leaders of western nations have made intoxicated promises as to the extent they will punish their countries for the prosperity that use of fossil fuels has brought. A few examples of the early awakening of cold reason will be discussed.
The October 22 TWTW contained an important quote by Richard Feynman from The Meaning of It All
“And it is of paramount importance, in order to make progress, that we recognize this ignorance and this doubt. Because we have doubt, we then propose looking in new ideas. The rate of development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test.”
The UN IPCC’s science has stagnated since its first report in 1990. Indeed, US atmospheric and climate science has stagnated since the 1979 Charney Report which claimed that a doubling of CO2 will cause a warming 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C (about 3 to 8°F). This lack of progress is the result of those responsible for these reports, and their advocates, claiming that the “science is settled.” There is no doubt showing that progress needs to be made.
During this forty plus years, great strides have been made in understanding and measuring what is occurring in the atmosphere and how greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere, thus the surface below it. These significant advances are ignored in IPCC and US government reports. As such, the reports exhibit significant functional illiteracy of physical sciences and the limitations of applying mathematics to physical science. A few examples of this functional illiteracy will be discussed. These include:
Roy Spencer’s report comparing temperatures in cities in Alberta with temperatures of the surrounding countryside.
The discussion by Cliff Mass on the absurd notion of natural tipping points.
The discussion by Christopher Rufo on the statistical illiteracy on the now-trendy use of the statistical meaningful term “stochastic.”
Jo Nova discusses the latest “State of the Climate” in Australia.
The functional illiteracy demonstrated by organizations such as UN WHO and the European Environment Agency on air pollution. One does not get mathematical certainty by applying rigorous mathematics to poorly understood concepts. One may get absurd results with huge unknown errors.
And the total amateur-hour charade demonstrated by leaders of some countries on how to pay for the excesses promised at COP 27.
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After the Dance: The UN annual dance of the sugar plum fairies is over. Now some hard questions begin: How to pay for all the promises made? President Biden avoided answering such questions by visiting other countries to make meaningless deals. Francis Menton summed the purpose well when writing in the Manhattan Contrarian:
In any sane world, the American President would use such a round of meetings to advance American interests, and also to extol, as a model for the world, the freedom-based economic system (often mis-named “capitalism”) that has made the U.S. the world’s wealthiest and most successful country. Indeed, when ex-President Trump traveled the world for meetings like these, some version of those were generally his main themes.
But now, we have a President who is a man of the Left, and it’s the opposite. You can’t help noticing that Biden — like the leftists who set his agenda and write his words — is ashamed of the country he leads and of its economic success. Thus, he uses these occasions mainly to apologize and to try to buy forgiveness and atonement for his country’s supposed sins.
One can say that after World War II, every president until President Obama was proud to represent the United States. Meanwhile, according to reports, European officials are accusing the Biden Administration of being a “war profiteer” for using Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as an excuse for raising the price of natural gas and benefiting from weapons sales and trade while increasing subsidies to green interests. Some of the charges may appear to be unfair, but the administration has restricted the development of oil and natural gas in the US, resulting in higher prices, as the EIA records on prices show.
COP-27 closed with no clear estimate how much money is to be transferred to developing countries for “compensation” for imaginary damage to them from the use of fossil fuels, or how much each country will partake. The devil is in the details to “be determined later.”
Further, the Democrats lost control of the House, where new spending bills originate. (A common trick to avoid this Constitutional requirement is to add new spending to an existing bill and calling it a “continuing resolution.”) However, at this time, the Republicans in control of the House seem determined that they will not allow payments to other countries for growing prosperity that has long been part of the tradition of American government, regardless of political party. They will reject the false claims that carbon dioxide emissions are causing an increase in bad weather. See links under After Paris!, Change in US Administrations, and The Political Games Continue.
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Incomplete Science: As discussed in previous TWTW’s, the work of physics Professors van Wijngaarden and Happer has shown that our understanding of the greenhouse effect is incomplete. Contrary to the global climate modeling of the IPCC and its followers, there is no uniform theory for how greenhouse gases affect earth temperatures. Further, our understanding of clouds, which are vital for understanding the effects of the atmosphere on earth’s temperatures, is far from complete. Therefore, the changing atmosphere cannot be modeled with any understanding of the probability of error. Thus, model forecasts/projections or predictions are meaningless.
However, using the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer, an upper bound can be established for the known increase in radiative forcing of doubling CO2 and other greenhouse gases. (The upper bound would include such debatable things as temperature rise.)
Also, the work of AMO physicist Howard Hayden shows that the IPCC and its followers do not understand the Stefan-Boltzmann law, which was developed separately by Josef Stefan in 1879 and Ludwig Boltzmann in 1884. This law has been used widely by astronomers for estimating temperatures of bodies in space for over 100 years. There is no reason to accept UN reports as knowledgeable in the science involved and it is foolish to base energy policies on these reports.
In his discussion on the very limited effect methane has on temperatures, Happer concluded with the poem by Alexander Pope on the Pierian spring: “Drink deep or taste not.” The same applies here in the IPPC’s discussion of the Stefan Boltzmann law and planetary heat balance. See last week’s TWTW and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
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Ground Based Temperatures: In his continuing investigation of land-based datasets (called surface-air) with exaggerated warming trends actually produced by urbanization, Roy Spencer focused on the cities of Calgary and Edmonton in largely rural Alberta. The Summary states:
“Comparison of rural with urban temperature monitoring sites across Canada during the summers of 1978-2022 shows the expected average nighttime warm bias in urban areas, with a weaker daytime effect. When applied to the Landsat imagery-based diagnoses of increased urbanization over time, 20% of the temperature trends in a small region encompassing Calgary and Edmonton are found to be due to increasing urbanization. Calgary leads the list of Canadian cities with increased urbanization, with an estimated 50% of the nighttime warming trends across 10 Canadian mostly-metro areas attributable to increased urbanization, and 20% of the daytime warming trends.”
After presenting the details of the report, Spencer concludes:
“Canadian cities show a substantial urban heat island effect in the summer, especially at night, and Landsat-based estimates of increased urbanization suggest that this has caused a spurious warming component of reported temperature trends, at least for locations experiencing increased urbanization. A limited comparison in Alberta suggests there remains an urban warming bias in the CRUTem5 dataset, consistent with my previous postings on the subject and work done by others.
“The issue is important because rational energy policy should be based upon reality, not perception. To the extent that global warming estimates are exaggerated, so will be energy policy decisions. As it is, there is evidence [link given below] that the climate models used to guide policy produce more warming than observed, especially in the summer when excess heat is of concern. If that observed warming is even less than being reported, then the climate models become increasingly irrelevant to energy policy decisions.” [Boldface added]
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/10/50-year-u-s-summer-temperature-trends-all-36-climate-models-are-too-warm/
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Tipping Points? Le Chatelier’s principle was developed for Chemistry in 1884. It has been applied to thermodynamics and the conservation of mass-energy in particle physics. Thus, the popular fashion of talking about climate tipping points is disturbing. On his website, Weather Blog, Cliff Mass has a good description of the harm the promoters of this absurdity are causing. He starts [Boldface in original]:
“It seems like there is another strident climate “tipping point” headline every other day.
“Threats of irreversible catastrophic climate change just around the corner.
“The truth is that such claims by some media outlets and climate activists are contrary to the best science.
“An attempt to sow worry and panic, with the motivation to motivate people to “do the right thing.” And it is both unethical and counterproductive.
“What is a climate tipping point?
“According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a tipping point is defined as
‘the critical point in a situation, process, or system beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place’
“And a climate tipping point can be defined as
‘a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large and often irreversible changes in the climate system.’
“Specifically, the idea is that increasing greenhouse gases (like CO2) will result in warming that will produce large, irreversible changes in the climate system.
“Like driving off a cliff. And that reducing greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations later will not help. The changes would be irreversible. We could not go back.”
After going through some details on how foolish it is to apply the concept to climate, Mass concludes:
“Those pushing climate tipping points are doing the devil’s work. They know that the effects of human-caused climate change are currently relatively modest. But folks aren’t sufficiently motivated to take the actions the activists want. So, they have decided to scare the population, with an impending, terrifying precipice of climate change.
“Not ethical, not based on science. And they are causing folks psychological harm and pushing governments to make poor decisions.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Stochastic Fears? A common term in statistics is “Stochastic” meaning randomly distributed, or not predictable. A stochastic probability distribution may be examined statistically but cannot be predicted precisely. An example of a stochastic process is radioactive decay. There may be a fixed probability of any atom in a group breaking down giving off alpha and beta particles, but there is no probability of predicting which atom. Further, the probability of the decay must be established by observation. Different elements and isotopes of elements decay at different rates.
Political commentator for Manhattan Institute Christopher Rufo writes in City Journal:
“In an opinion piece for Scientific American, writer Bryn Nelson insinuated that my factual reporting on Drag Queen Story Hour was an example of ‘stochastic terrorism,’ which he defines as ‘ideologically driven hate speech’ that increases the likelihood of unpredictable acts of violence. On the night of the attack, Nelson argued, I had appeared on Tucker Carlson Tonight to discuss my reporting, and, hours later, the alleged attacker, David DePape, radicalized by ‘QAnon’ conspiracy theories about ‘Democratic, Satan-worshipping pedophiles,’ broke into the Pelosi residence and attacked Paul Pelosi with a hammer.
“This is a bizarre claim that, for a magazine supposedly dedicated to ‘science,’ hardly meets a scientific standard of cause and effect.”
The term “stochastic terrorism” is absurd. That it appears in the once noted Scientific American illustrates how far that publication has sunk. Rufo’s comment that it does not meet the scientific standard of cause and effect is meaningless. See link under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
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Beating the Drums: Jo Nova reports that the Australian climate is fine, nothing unusual, but the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) are in crisis mode. Their latest State of the Climate, 2022, ignores records that Nova uses. Nova writes:
The “biggest crimes of this report are what they don’t say. The CSIRO and BoM must know, but don’t mention, that satellites don’t show any warming in Australia in the last ten years at all. Satellites track across all seven million square kilometers of Australia and are calibrated against thousands of weather balloons. The CSIRO and BoM prefer to use thermometers in carparks, near runways, or close to incinerators, then they magically adjust trends at some sites up by as much as 2 degrees (that’s the whole century-long trend right there?!)
“But it makes sense in a non-scientific kind of way. Government funded scientists would get smaller grants if there was no climate crisis. There are a billion reasons to find ‘global warming’ and none at all to find natural cycles of weather that no one can tax. The hapless researcher who finds that Australia has always been a land of droughts and flooding rains will find themselves sacked for being non-collegial, called a pariah and a climate denier. Just ask Peter Ridd.” [Boldface added]
Nova goes into details backing up her assertions then states:
“Five reasons UAH [University of Alabama in Huntsville atmospheric temperature data] is different (better) to the RSS [Remote Sensing Systems] global temperature estimates
- UAH agrees with millions of calibrated weather balloons released around the world. RSS now agrees more with surface data from equipment placed near airports, concrete, air-conditioners and which is itself wildly adjusted.
- In the latest adjustments UAH uses empirical comparisons from satellites that aren’t affected by diurnal drift to estimate the errors of those that are. RSS starts with model estimates instead.
- Two particular satellites disagree with each other (NOAA-14 and 15). The UAH team remove the one they think is incorrect. RSS keeps both inconsistent measurements.
- Diurnal drift probably created artificial warming in the RSS set prior to 2002 but created artificial cooling after that. The new version of RSS keeps the warming error before 2002 but fixes the error after then. The upshot is a warmer overall trend.
- UAH uses a more advanced method with three channels. RSS is still using the original method Roy Spencer and John Christy developed with only one channel (which is viewed from three angles).”
One does not need to be a scientist to understand what physical evidence is important and what is not. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science.
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Mathematical Absurdity: The Linear No Threshold Model (LNT) for toxicity is popular but does not stand up to testing. For example, naturally occurring arsenic is toxic, but it is widely used in medicine for various diseases. (Compounds of arsenic not containing carbon may be more toxic than organic compounds (containing carbon)). The Dose-Response model traditionally used is far better for determining toxicity than the LNT model that may produce absurd results – all arsenic is toxic. This is medically illiterate.
The UN WHO and the European Environment Agency are following the EPA’s path of illiteracy. For example, according to reports, the EEA claims that there were “238,000 premature deaths in the European Union in 2020”, these were from matter smaller 2.5 microns, also “nitrogen dioxide (NO2) above the WHO’s recommended threshold led to 49,000 premature deaths in the EU’, and “According to the WHO, air pollution causes seven million premature deaths per year worldwide, putting it on par with smoking or poor diets.”
Smoke “cancer sticks” freely because it is no more lethal than breathing fresh air? See Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
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Just Loan the Money: Perhaps the most amusing comment about funding the claims that rich countries should pay poor countries for prospering came from the Prime Minister of Barbados who suggested that the World Bank could just loan the money.
Like many other international organizations, the World Bank has grown in power, but not responsibility. It now can raise money in financial markets by selling bonds to investors. With no prospect of repayment, this would not last as long as FTX and its crypto currency. See link under Funding Issues.
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Number of the Week: $1.1billion of $6 billion. For decades, California green politicians have tried to close all nuclear power in California and have succeeded in closing all but Diablo Canyon nuclear plant, which was scheduled to be decommissioned in two phases in 2024 and 2025, but in September lawmakers voted to keep it open for five years. Most California politicians appear to be totally ignorant about where reliable electricity is generated.
Authorized by President Kennedy in 1961, the Pacific DC Intertie is a 3.1-gigawatt DC transmission line connecting the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power with the Bonneville Power Administration along the Columbia River in Oregon. The scheme is brilliant. In the winter, it delivers power from the southwest US, when it is not needed, to the northwest when it is needed, lessening the burden on hydroelectric dams. In the summer, when power is needed in southwestern US, the system is reversed. Reliable electric power from nuclear power plants in the winter is necessary for the scheme to work. Shutting off all nuclear power would put Southern California in dire straits.
Despite actions of greens against nuclear and hydro, the Biden Administration will give Pacific Gas & Electric Co. $1.1 Billion to keep Diablo Canyon open. The new $550 billion Infrastructure Law contains $ 60 billion funding for 2023, and $6 billion is in the grants program for keeping nuclear power plants open. – a price taxpayers pay for government teenage thinking. See link under Nuclear Energy and Fears and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie#:~:text=The%20Pacific%20DC%20Intertie%20(also,voltage%20direct%20current%20(HVDC).
Climategate Continued
Climategate: Never Forget (12th anniversary) [13 years ago]
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 22, 2022
Censorship
Charity Commission reviews complaint against climate sceptic thinktank
Move comes after lawyers and MPs raised concerns about charitable status of Global Warming Policy Foundation
By Helena Horton, The Guardian, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/21/charity-commission-reviews-complaint-against-climate-sceptic-thinktank
“The Good Law Project said it found ‘several hundred thousand pounds’ worth of spending on one-sided research and a financial relationship between GWPF and NZW which appears to breach key protections of charity law’.”
[SEPP Comment: And government-funded research is not one-sided?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Tipping Points: Real Threats or Misinformation?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 22, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/11/climate-tipping-points-real-threats-or.html
Canadian Summer Urban Heat Island Effects: Some Results in Alberta
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 19, 2022
Outside the Black Box: Back to Basics
By Ad Huijser, WUWT, Nov 23, 2022
CO2 is Innocent but Clouds are Guilty. New Science has Created a “Black Swan Event”
By Charles Blaisdell PhD ChE, WUWT, Nov 23, 2022
The Net-Zero Absurdity on the Back of An Envelope.
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Nov 22, 2022
40 minute video
Study Finds The CO2 Greenhouse Effect Is Real…But Dangerous Global Warming From Rising CO2 Is Not
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 24, 2022
Link to paper: Verification of the Greenhouse Effect in the Laboratory
By Hermann Harde and Michael Schnell Science of Climate Change, Jan 4, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Verifying decades of previous laboratory work which is ignored by the IPCC and its followers.]
Pushing the same old climate policies at COP27 is simply insane
After decades of failure to curb emissions, let’s accept that capitalist investment is not the problem: it’s the solution
By Bjorn Lomborg and Jordan Peterson, The Telegraph, Nov 4, 2022
https://archive.ph/7qkfk#selection-1241.1-1245.122
Defending the Orthodoxy
Did the world make progress on climate change? Here’s what was decided at global talks
By Nathan Rott, et al. NPR WAMU, Nov 20, 2022
https://www.npr.org/2022/11/20/1137349916/did-the-world-make-progress-on-climate-change-heres-what-was-decided-at-global-t
The Climate Cons,
By I & I Board, Nov 21, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The Australian Climate is Fine — but the State of the CSIRO and the BOM is a Crisis
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 25, 2022
Link to: State of the Climate 2022
The biennial State of the Climate report series draws on the latest climate research, encompassing observations, analyses and projections to describe year-to-year variability and longer-term changes in Australia’s climate. The 2022 State of the Climate report is now available.
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate
Full Report: State of the Climate 2022
By Staff, CSIRO and BOM, 2022
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/22-00220_OA_REPORT_StateoftheClimate2022_WEB_221115.pdf
Climate Change, Fake Claims and Greenwashing
One of the reasons world nations have been deficient in dealing with climate change, which threatens to heat our globe in life-threatening ways, is the complexity of the issue.
By Walter Moss, LA Progressive, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.laprogressive.com/climate-change-2/greenwashing
[SEPP Comment: Three decades of increasing UN & US government propaganda with increasing intensity is progress?]
Also, not a climate scientist
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Editors and Obvious Misinformation
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 22, 2022
“Wind and solar are unreliable, and without long-term battery storage, which hasn’t yet been invented, will result in dangerous, killer blackouts when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine.”
[SEPP Comment: According to the chart from the Wall Street Journal, it costs $40 per MWh to light a light bulb with solar at midday, but $153 per MWh to light it at midnight. So, people will adjust and want light only during the day?]
Demands for ‘climate reparations’ are laughable
By Dan Hannan, Washington Examiner, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/demands-for-climate-reparations-are-laughable
What not to read
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
“It [an article in The Economist] also recommended the 6th IPCC Assessment Report but only the “Summaries for Policymakers” which are the last part of the IPCC’s work you should actually read because they’re the bit where the politicians misrepresent what the scientists said based on their own preconceptions and then go ‘scientists say’ when challenged.”
“multiple lines of evidence”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 25, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/multiple-lines-of-evidence/
“When government scientists and the press claim “multiple lines of evidence” – it normally means they made the whole thing up.”
Energy and Environmental Review: November 21, 2022
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Nov 21, 2022
Global climate conference closes with climate damage compensation deal
By Kyle Balluck and Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 20, 2022
Meanwhile back on the real Earth
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
COP-27, Reparations Notwithstanding, Is Simply Anti-African
By Paul Driessen, Shale Directories.com, Nov 22, 2022
Is that all? UN wants 4, 6 or $10 trillion a year and a “transformation of the world’s financial system”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 23, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Would elimination of the UN be cheaper and more beneficial to humanity?]
We’d like to think it’s our doing
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
“But in fact, the time-stamp reflects the amateurishness of the whole business of gathering tens of thousands of people to revamp the whole world economy and its ecology in less than two weeks without any effort to make sure you knew how to do it, and what you were going to agree to do, before you stepped into the limelight.”
As predicted, COP27 was a flop yet again
Every year, the annual UN climate conference heralds two weeks of intergovernmental pantomime.
Statement: Net Zero Watch, Nov 21, 2022
link to: Flop 27: Where Are Our Climate $$Trillions?
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, 2022
COP-27: A Window Into How The UN Keeps The Poor Poor
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 24, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-11-24-cop-27-a-window-into-how-the-un-keeps-the-poor-poor
“As with most everything the UN does, there was nothing in this conference for anyone to be thankful for.”
“And God forbid that the poor countries should get rich and not need the wealth transfers anymore. What then would be left for the UN to do?”
COP27 climate damages is just a fantasy plan to tax the West for bad weather, and grow the UN
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 22, 2022
COP27 Is A Downpayment On Disaster
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 20, 2022
Exit Stage Left
By Staff, Doomberg, Nov 1, 2022
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/exit-stage-left
“Europe accuses US of profiting from war”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 25, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/europe-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/
“Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries”
Europe accuses US of profiting from war
EU officials attack Joe Biden over sky-high gas prices, weapons sales and trade as Vladimir Putin’s war threatens to destroy Western unity.
By Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela and Jacopo Barigazzi, Politico, Nov 24, 2022
https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/
President Biden Takes To The World Stage
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 20, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-11-20-president-biden-takes-to-the-world-stage
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China To Double Coal-Fired Power Plant Capacity…Aims To Avoid European, US Blunders
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 25, 2022
“In Germany, while radical groups of climate-crazies like Extinction Rebellion and Last Generation are gluing themselves to road and airport tarmac surfaces to rescue the planet from the myth that is the climate catastrophe, China is planning to double the capacity of its coal-fired power plants, reports German online Blackout News here.”
[SEPP Comment: From Richard Greene in comments section: “The article is about using coal to generate electricity. The chart is for primary energy sources, NOT just the fuel sources for electricity generation.”]
Coal is used for 63.6% of electricity generation, more than the percentage of coal used for primary energy in China.
“The correct chart for this article is here”
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235176/china-distribution-of-electricity-production-by-source/]
Seeking a Common Ground
Earth Can Regulate its Own Temperature Over Millennia, New Study Finds
Press Release, MIT, Via WUWT, Nov 20, 2022
Link to paper: Presence or absence of stabilizing Earth system feedbacks on different time scales
By Arnscheidt and Rothman, Science Advances, Nov 16, 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adc9241
From the abstract: “On time scales between 4 and 400 ka, fluctuations fail to grow with time scale, suggesting that stabilizing mechanisms like the hypothesized “weathering feedback” have exerted dominant control in this regime.”
Models v. Observations
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is over-estimated in a key CMIP6 model
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
From CO2 Science
Hot American models
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Roy Spencer’s work on 50 years of models v. observations.]
Changing Weather
Pacific Typhoons Continue Downward Trend, Contradicting Alarmist Claims Of More Storms
By P Gosselin, Charts by Kirye, No Tricks Zone, Nov 23, 2022
Climatey weather snow thingy
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The seasonal change from climate to weather.]
Cold Snaps Kill More Than Hot Snaps- BBC Admits
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 19, 2022
From BBC: “Staying warm: What does an unheated room do to your body?”
Everybody knows: climate change means more wind storms
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 23, 2022
“Yes, what you’re seeing [wind gust data] is a downward trend. The peak year was 1971, fully 50 years ago, and 2022 is on track to tie 2004 and 2007 as the minimum years. Everybody knows climate change means bigger wind storms. Someone just needs to tell the climate.”
Equatorial Rainfall by Hour
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Nov 24, 2022
Changing Climate
Ice Age Temperatures and Precipitation Reconstructed from Earthworm Granules
Press Release, Johannes Guttenberg Universitaet, Mainz, posted Nov 22, 2022, on WUWT.
Link to paper: Millennial-timescale quantitative estimates of climate dynamics in central Europe from earthworm calcite granules in loess deposits
By Charlotte Prud’homme, et al. Communications, Earth and Environment, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00595-3
From the abstract: “We show that climate in the Rhine Valley was significantly cooler during the warm season and overall drier with annual precipitation values reduced by up to 70% compared to the present day.”
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
South Pole Hits Record Cold November Temperatures
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Nov 20, 2022 [H/t ICECAP]
“The records follow the six-month winter of 2020-21, which was the coldest since records began in 1957. Inexplicably, all these facts and trends have escaped reporting in the mainstream media.”
“The Australian geologist Professor Ian Plimer gives short shrift to all the lies and obfuscations surround settled climate science. If it had been proved that human emissions of carbon dioxide drive global warming, ‘there would be endless citation of the dozen or so seminal scientific papers demonstrating this proof’. Instead, he notes, there is a ‘deafening silence’. Climate cycles have not changed because humans are alive today, ‘and cannot be changed by feelings, ideology or legislation’. He also noted: ‘Bearers of validated facts are denigrated, cancelled and deemed controversial by those who have no counterargument, no ability to critically analyse, and who rely on self-interest and feelings.’”
“dramatic evidence”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 24, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/dramatic-evidence/
Video
Eastern Canadian Arctic has much more sea ice than usual while Svalbard polar bears deal with less
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 24, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The “Stochastic Terror” Lie
The Left’s latest gambit for suppressing speech is built on preposterous grounds.
By Christopher F. Rufo, City Journal, Nov 14, 2022
https://www.city-journal.org/stochastic-terrorism-is-about-suppressing-free-speech?skip=1
Greenhouse gasbags
By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 223, 2022
“The New York Times’ David Wallace-Wells thinks this veil of ignorance may soon lift, gushing that ‘one of the most fascinating developments from this year’s major climate conference, COP27, which kicked off Nov. 6 with the U.N. secretary general António Guterres declaring that the world was on a ‘highway to climate hell,’ is a new online tool released by the nonprofit coalition Climate Trace that allows us to see emissions in near-real time…. it marks another step toward what is beginning to seem like the inevitable development of a sort of global carbon surveillance state… offering another piece of the emerging framework for global sanctions and climate litigation.’”
BBC Hurricane Complaint
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 25, 2022
“Naturally I have resubmitted my complaint, which will trigger Stage 2 of the complaints process. Keeping it simple, I have said:
“Your headline claims 2021 hurricane season was third most active.
As I have already pointed out, there have been 50 other years with as many or more hurricanes. The third most active claim refers to Tropical Storms, not Hurricanes, so this needs to be corrected.”
Get it Right, Washington Post, Climate Change Isn’t Causing a Decline in Coral Reefs
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Nov 21, 2022
Adelies Are Doing Fine, Despite What The BBC Say
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 24, 2022
“And another study found that the breeding population of Adelies in East Antarctica had grown by 53% since 1993, and that 13 new colonies had been found. Like most animals, penguins are extremely adaptable.
“The BBC of course would rather you focus on the cute, cuddly chicks who are going to die of starvation. But unfortunately Mother Nature can be very cruel.”
A Deluge of Bad Maths and Worse Reporting
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Nov 20, 2022
BBC Response To Svalbard Complaint
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2022
BBC Publicise Potty Gaia’s New Book
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 23, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Changing My Mind on Climate
‘We need to be searchers for solutions rather than planners and designers of solutions.’
By Bret Stephens, The Bulwark, Nov 21, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Is it changing as it has for hundreds of millions of years or is CO2 the cause?]
ESG: “Doing Good or Sounding Good?”
A conversation with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran
By Timothy M. Doyle, Real Clear Energy, Nov 22, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/22/esg_doing_good_or_sounding_good_866297.html
“Capital invested in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment products are forecast to reach $41 trillion by the end of the year. Aswath Damodaran, professor of corporate finance and valuation at the NYU Stern School of Business, is one of the foremost academic critics of ESG.”
“Damodaran calls the whole ESG concept “fuzzy:” If 100 ESG experts were in a room together and asked to define and measure ESG, you would likely get 100 different answers.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Air pollution killed 238,000 Europeans prematurely in 2020: EEA
By AFP Staff Writers, Copenhagen (AFP), Nov 23, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Air_pollution_killed_238000_Europeans_prematurely_in_2020_EEA_999.html
AFR: 10 Climate Disasters in 5 Years Cost $1.5 Trillion
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 22, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
US Military Running Fake Social Media Accounts
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 25, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/us-military-running-fake-social-media-accounts/
Questioning European Green
OBR Reveals The Crippling Cost Of Net Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 24, 2022
“In other words, that figure of £573 bn above is probably only a third of the true cost to the public sector. Meanwhile, as already noted, the private sector will also have to pay out much more in the quest for Net Zero.”
[SEPP Comment: According to its website, “The OBR is led by the three members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). They have executive responsibility for the core functions of the OBR, including the judgements reached in its forecasts.”
‘The RC are supported in their work by the OBR’s permanent staff of 35 civil servants, led by Steve Farrington. The staff work in teams covering: economic forecasting and analysis; fiscal forecasting and analysis; welfare forecasting and analysis; sustainability analysis; and strategy, communications and operations. OBR staff vacancies are advertised openly where possible and applications for externally advertised posts are welcome from both inside and outside the civil service.”] https://obr.uk/about-the-obr/who-we-are/
National Grid issues – then cancels – electricity shortage warning
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 22, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Australia’s Green Energy Dream Sinking Under Royalty Demands, Tradie Shortages
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 20, 2022
Funding Issues
Analysis: Drops of climate finance start to fill an ocean of need
By Simon Jessop and Aidan Lewis, Reuters, Nov 22, 2022
https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/drops-climate-finance-start-fill-an-ocean-need-2022-11-22/
Barbados Proposes Rich Countries Provide $1Trillion to Fund Climate Action
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The World Bank should increase lending without any security or funding to support it?]
Uncertainties about climate compensation fund trigger skepticism
By Rachel Frazin and Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 22, 2022
[SEPP Comment: How is this possible?]
GOP Rep. Banks: We’ll ‘Do Everything’ We Can to Block Climate reparation Payments, We Can Block It.
By Ian Hanchett, Breitbart, Nov 24, 2022
https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/11/24/gop-rep-banks-well-do-everything-we-can-to-block-climate-reparation-payments-we-can-block-it/
From a video interview.
“But to pay for the weather, bad weather in foreign countries out of the pocketbooks of hard-working Americans might be the most insane thing I’ve ever seen.”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Even Proposals for a Windfall Profits Tax Are Damaging
By Benjamin Zycher Real Clear Energy, Nov 22, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/20/proposals_for_a_windfall_profits_tax_are_damaging_even_if_never_enacted_865544.html
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Environmental Levy Update [UK]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 25, 2022
“The cost of subsidies already paid out since 2012/13 came to £78 billion, so by 2028 we will have forked out £134 billion.
“Bear this in mind when the renewable lobby tells us we should have been building more wind farms!”
Energy Issues – Non-US
High Carbon Prices sure Appear to Create Energy Poverty
By Staff, Parker Gallant Energy Perspectives, Nov 12, 2022 [H/t John Robson]
Gazprom Threatens To Curb European Gas Flows Through Ukraine
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com. Nov 22, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Gazprom-Threatens-To-Curb-European-Gas-Flows-Through-Ukraine.html
Do we need a new electricity market?
By Bryan Leyland, GWPF, 2022
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/11/Leyland-Single-Buyer-Market.pdf?mc_cid=4755a8a60e&mc_eid=4961da7cb1
Revealed: Brits are paying the highest electricity bills in the entire world
By Michel Williams, City AM, Nov 16, 2022 [H/t John Robson]
Energy Crisis: German Minister President Suggests Heating One Room In Winter Is Enough
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 20, 2022
Twice as expensive: The high cost of Germany’s floating LNG terminals
By Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, EURACTIV.com, Nov 21, 2022
“Meanwhile, Spiegel reported that the whole exercise is currently budgeted at €6.56 billion, up from €3 billion in the 2022 budget, a figure confirmed by the ministry to Reuters.”
[SEPP Comment: Far less in capital cost but more costly to operate than land-based facilities.]
Energy Issues – Australia
Renewable Energy Revolution? Energy Australia Warns of Blackouts and Price Spikes
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 25, 2022
“’Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity’ – Hanlon’s Razor”
FREE MONEY: Aussie Governments Desperately Pump Priming their Green Energy Revolution?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 24, 2022
Energy Issues — US
To Win on Climate Solutions and Reduce Energy Prices, Boosting Domestic Energy Supplies Is Key
By Tom Magness, Real Clear Energy, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/21/to_win_on_climate_solutions_and_reduce_energy_prices_boosting_domestic_energy_supplies_are_key_866065.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Natural Gas – 100 Years Ago Today, November 25, 1922!
By Tom Shepstone, Shale Directories.com, Nov 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The wonders of electricity and gas coming to rural America!]
A Cautionary Tale For Oil Companies’ Navigating The Transition
By Michael C. Lynch, Energy Policy Research Foundation, November 2022
[SEPP Comment: From the executive summary: “Consensus can be horribly wrong, whether of the industry, government, academia and/or think-tanks.”]
Biden grants PG&E $1.1 billion to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open
By Emma Newburger, CNBC.com, Nov 21, 2-22
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/biden-grants-pge-1-billion-to-keep-diablo-canyon-nuclear-plant-open.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Costs of Wind and Solar Energy Are Skyrocketing
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Nov 22, 2022
“The one thing that could make the situation catastrophically worse is if governments imposed drastic new demand on the electric power grid by making us all drive electric vehicles. But no, they could never be that stupid. Could they?”
75% Of German Wind Turbines Kill 70 Bats Each In 2 Months. There Are 30,000 Wind Turbines In Germany.
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 21, 2022
Link to paper; Wind turbines without curtailment produce large numbers of bat fatalities throughout their lifetime: A call against ignorance and neglect
By Christian C. Voigt, et al. Global Ecology and Conservation, September 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989422001512
From abstract: “Within the European Union it is legally required to curtail the operation of wind turbines at periods of high bat activity, yet this is not practiced at old wind turbines.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Tiniest Ever Ancient Seawater Pockets Revealed
Press Release, DOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Via WUWT, Nov 20, 2022
Link to paper: Pushing the limits: Resolving paleoseawater signatures in nanoscale fluid inclusions by atom probe tomography
By S.D.Taylor, et al. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Dec 1, 2022
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X22004952?via%3Dihub
“Findings could open up a whole new chapter in climate science and help identify subsurface locations to safely store hydrogen for carbon-free energy.”
[SEPP Comment: Why store hydrogen?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Fuel Duty Hike Planned–To Subsidise EVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 24, 2022
Why solar electric vehicles might be the next generation of EVs
By Katie Brigham, CNBC, Nov 22, 2022
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/22/how-sono-aptera-and-lightyear-are-making-solar-powered-evs-a-reality.html
California Dreaming
Column: Wealthy Californians “Just Stop Oil” campaign – popular in Europe; has anyone asked, say, Bangladesh?
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Nov 22, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Seabed Mining Will Help Break China’s Grip on Critical Minerals
By Tom LaTourrette, Real Clear Wire, Nov 18, 2022
https://www.realclearwire.com/articles/2022/11/18/seabed_mining_will_help_break_chinas_grip_on_critical_minerals_865746.html
[SEPP Comment: Even after UN demands?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Bloomberg: Companies Greenwashing Their Image Using “Bogus” Carbon Credits
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 21, 2022
“Carbon credits – the only ‘market’ where false claims benefit both parties in the transaction.”
Climate protesters at Berlin airport briefly halt traffic after gluing themselves to runway
By Julia Shapero, The Hill, Nov 24, 2022
Spermageddon
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Nov 22, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Global warming will stop human reproduction? It did not work in the tropics where humans evolved!]
Tasmanian Climate Crisis: Early Tomato Planting and Some Dead Seaweed
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 22, 2022
“But does this kind of seasonal wisdom still work as the climate warps?”???
ARTICLES
1. The West Made the World Prosperous. COP27 Will Make Us Pay
Maybe industry makes weather disasters likelier. It certainly enables us to make them less hazardous.
By Gerard Baker, WSJ, Nov. 21, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-west-made-the-world-prosperous-and-now-we-must-pay-climate-fund-reparations-united-nations-cop27-capitalism-china-11669039956?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
“No good deed goes unpunished, they say. So, for having the genius to produce the ideas, create the economic system and develop the capital that has in a little more than a century given the world unimaginable prosperity, eliminated deadly diseases that once killed millions, reduced infant mortality, extended life expectancy and lifted hundreds of millions of people out of hunger and poverty, we must now be made to pay.”
TWTW Summary: Exposes the critical thinking skills of the attendees which have not advanced beyond the teenage group think “it seemed a good idea at the time.
********
2. Biden Signs Up for Climate Reparations
The latest shakedown is a new fund to pay poor countries for supposed damage caused by Western use of fossil fuels.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Nov. 20, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-signs-up-for-climate-change-reparations-europe-fund-un-john-kerry-poor-countries-bank-capitalism-11668974219?mod=hp_opin_pos_1
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“The use of climate policy to soak Americans keeps getting worse, and the United Nation’s climate conference in Egypt ended this weekend with agreement on a new fund to pay reparations to poor countries. Welcome to the latest climate shakedown.
Poor countries have long sought to force wealthy countries to pay for the “loss and damage” they suffer from natural disasters that are supposedly climate-related. This is separate from the $100 billion a year that rich countries have promised to help poor countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
The 2015 Paris accord suggested rich countries compensate poor countries for climate damage—the rationale being that industrialization has increased temperatures and led to natural disasters. Poor countries finally forced discussion of a formal mechanism to pay climate reparations onto this year’s U.N. conference agenda.
John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, dismissed the idea earlier this month: “It’s a well-known fact that the United States and many other countries will not establish . . . some sort of legal structure that is tied to compensation or liability. That’s just not happening.” But on Thursday Europe abandoned the U.S. by proposing a deal, and Mr. Kerry rolled over.
Wealthy countries will now set up a fund to cover climate damage for the least developed countries—i.e., not China or middle-income nations. This will be financed from “a broad donor base” and “mosaic of solutions,” such as international development banks and taxes on aviation, shipping and fossil fuels.
Europe hopes this will induce poor countries to reduce emissions to meet the Paris target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The world has already warmed by 1.1 degrees, and a U.N. report last month estimated temperatures would rise 1.8 degrees even if Western countries meet their “net-zero” goals.
But China emits two-thirds more CO2 than Europe and the U.S. combined. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power generation, and more new coal plants are set for approval through 2025 than the entire existing U.S. fleet. China says it needs more coal power for energy security and, unlike Europe and the U.S., it won’t commit climate suicide.”
The editorial continues by saying that prosperity has benefited all, some more than others, but general prosperity is ignored by the IPCC and its followers.7
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