The Week That Was: 2022-01-08 (January 8, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “If you want to understand something well…explain it simply” ‒ Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: Number 1
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Censorship by social media is a problem for those who do not conform to the views the social media censors consider generally accepted. Roy Spencer reports that Google has censored his web site for “unreliable and harmful claims.” Apparently, the “unreliable and harmful claims” are his reports on the most trustworthy and comprehensive dataset of global temperatures ever compiled. So much for the credibility of Google and its owners.
Three major issues of what we learned or reinforced this year will be covered. They are atmospheric temperatures, a different approach for understanding the greenhouse effect, and the false statistic methods attributing extreme weather events to human-caused climate change. The first two are ignored by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers; the last one is used by the IPCC to justify their extreme claims of climate change. One example is the Biden Administration and members of Congress asserting a climate crisis to justify expansion of executive power over the economy when there is no crisis. Climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years and there is nothing unusual about the current warming.
Two different views of upcoming litigation on climate issues are presented. William Allison of Energy in Depth writes that such litigation will continue to fail. In an article in an American Bar Association (ABA) publication Benjamin Franta asserts that litigation will grow and become more successful.
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Censorship: On his blog, Roy Spencer writes:
“DrRoySpencer.com has been demonetized by Google for “unreliable and harmful claims”. This means I can no longer generate revenue to support the website using the Google Adsense program.
“From a monetary standpoint, it’s not a big deal because what I make off of Google ads is in the noise level of my family’s monthly budget. It barely made more than I pay in hosting fees and an (increasingly expensive) comment spam screener.
“I’ve been getting Google warnings for a couple months now about “policy violations”, but nowhere was it listed what pages were in violation, and what those violations were. There are Adsense rules about ad placement on the page (e.g., a drop-down menu cannot overlay an ad), so I was assuming it was something like that, but I had no idea where to start looking with hundreds of web pages to sift through. It wasn’t until the ads were demonetized that Google offered links to the pages in question and what the reason was.
“Of course, I should have figured out it was related to Google’s new policy about misleading content; a few months ago, Google announced they would be demonetizing climate skeptic websites. I was kind of hoping my content was mainstream enough to avoid being banned since:
- I believe the climate system has warmed
- I believe most of this warming is probably due to greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning
“Many of you know that I defend much of mainstream climate science, including climate modeling as an enterprise. Where I depart of the ‘mainstream’ is how much warming has occurred, how much future warming can be expected, and what should be done about it from an energy policy perspective.
“From the information provided by Google about my violations, in terms of the number of ads served, by far the most frequented web pages here at drroyspencer.com with “unreliable and harmful claims” are our (UAH) monthly global temperature update pages. This is obviously because some activists employed by Google (who are probably weren’t even born when John Christy and I received both NASA and American Meteorological Society awards for our work) don’t like the answer our 43-year long satellite dataset gives. Never mind that our dataset remains one of the central global temperature datasets used by mainstream climate researchers in their work.
“For now, I don’t plan on appealing the decision, because it’s not worth the aggravation. If you are considered a “climate skeptic” (whatever that means) Google has already said you are targeted for termination from their Adsense program. I can’t expect their liberal arts-educated ‘fact checkers’ to understand the nuances of the global warming debate.”
Whether or not the owners of Google recognize what their employees are doing is immaterial. They have hired people who do not understand the scientific method and the importance of exposing error with physical evidence and correcting it. Instead, apparently Google seeks conformity to the current politically driven fad rather than examining physical evidence.
Google is owned by a parent company, Alphabet, which is controlled by the founders of Google/Alphabet, Larry Page and Sergey Brin. It is the most used search engine worldwide. According to the link below, Google is “one of the four big technology companies among the United States technology firms: these four firms are ‘Amazon,’ ‘Apple,’ ‘Microsoft,’ and of course ‘Google.’”
In the late 1800s a burst of technology in industry gave rise to several industrialists who dominated and standardized various products such as Rockefeller in kerosene then gasoline and Carnegie in steel. Many of these “titans of industry” became known as “robber barons.” Merriam-Webster defines robber baron as:
“1: an American capitalist of the latter part of the 19th century who became wealthy through exploitation (as of natural resources, governmental influence, or low wage scales)
“2: a business owner or executive who acquires wealth through ethically questionable tactics”
Whether these new titans of technology are robber barons is a matter of opinion. Certainly, they are using ethically questionable tactics to enforce conformity to their views. Steve Milloy and Francis Menton give other examples. See links under Censorship, https://www.instafollowers.co/blog/who-owns-google and https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/robber%20baron
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Three Issues Reinforced: Roy Spencer reports the UAH Global Temperature for December 2021 and states:
“The annual average anomaly for 2021 was +0.134 deg. C above the 30-year mean (1991-2020), which places it as the 8th warmest year in the 43-year satellite record, behind 2016, 2020, 1998, 2019, 2017,2010, and 2015.”
“The linear warming trend since January 1979, remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Spencer believes that the primary cause for the modest increase in temperatures is increasing carbon dioxide. TWTW is not so sure. Certainly, the atmospheric temperature trend is far below that calculated by the IPCC and its followers, who have manipulated surface temperature data and do not eliminate increasing temperature due to urbanization, which is occurring in many parts of the world. Also, note that the increase over the oceans is considerably less than that over land. By ignoring these 43 years of data, the IPCC and its followers demonstrate they have abandoned any pretext of following the scientific method and any effort to truly identify the greenhouse effect, which occurs in the atmosphere.
This year, William Happer gave several presentations about the findings that he and William van Wijngaarden made using the HITRAN database to determine the thermal radiation of the globe’s five most abundant greenhouse gases, water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide and methane. These calculations apply to a cloud-free atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect of these gases is most dominant. They show there is no cause for climate alarm and no climate crisis from increasing carbon dioxide. Perhaps the most understandable presentation is the one on November 16 at CLINTEL. The transcript is not available, but Ron Clutz gives the presentation along with the transcript from a February presentation by Happer.
As discussed last week, and in previous TWTWs, Ross McKitrick shows that a 1999 paper by Allen and Tatt (AT99) misstated the conditions in the Gauss-Markov theorem yielding unbiased and efficient estimators. From the abstract published in the same journal as AT99:
“Their methodology has been widely used and highly influential ever since, in part because subsequent authors have relied upon their claim that their GLS [Generalized Least Squares] model satisfies the conditions of the Gauss-Markov (GM) Theorem, thereby yielding unbiased and efficient estimators. But AT99 stated the GM Theorem incorrectly, omitting a critical condition altogether, their GLS method cannot satisfy the GM conditions, and their variance estimator is inconsistent by construction. Additionally, they did not formally state the null hypothesis of the RCT [Randomized Controlled Trial] nor identify which of the GM conditions it tests, nor did they prove its distribution and critical values, rendering it uninformative as a specification test.”
Very simply, the probability estimates in papers relying on AT99 are meaningless. They should not be accepted as evidence of human-caused global warming. Next week, additional issues in climate science will be addressed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Climate Legislation: There are distinctly different views concerning the future of climate litigation against oil companies in the US. On one hand William Allison writes:
“The past year has not been a great one for supporters of the climate litigation campaign. [against oil companies.]
“There were several devastating blows dealt to climate lawsuits, both on the process and the merits, and as Law360 summed up:
‘The U.S. Supreme Court [SCOTUS] expanded the ability for fossil fuel companies to fight climate nuisance lawsuits lodged by state and local governments, and the Second Circuit rejected one such suit outright.’
“In response, the plaintiffs’ attorneys have had to call in the reinforcements and place academics on their payroll to help explain why, against all the evidence, these lawsuits aren’t [sic] failing. Meanwhile, major activist organizations are holding personal meetings with top government officials in order to recruit them to their side.
“We’ve taken the liberty of compiling the climate litigation campaign’s year in review:”
Allison then goes into specific defeats and coordination of efforts. One of the more interesting comments concerned King County, Washington, the home of Seattle:
“In September, the county gave “notice of its voluntary dismissal of this action,” making it the first plaintiff to give up on a lawsuit. The move also represents a blow to plaintiffs’ attorney Matt Pawa, who was a key player at the infamous La Jolla conference in 2012 where the playbook for the entire climate litigation campaign was mapped out and who was at the helm for San Francisco and Oakland’s loss as well as the New York City defeat.”
Allison concludes:
“The SCOTUS ruling is expected to continue to have ripple effects through 2022, as state courts are directed to consider all grounds for removal before moving a case forward at the state or federal level.
“Meanwhile, the energy industry continues to invest billions of dollars a year into improving efficiencies of their systems and developing new technologies to address climate change.
“So, after several years of waging war in the courtroom without racking up even a single victory, and with a Congress and White House that have expressed a sincere desire to do the things that could actually tackle climate change, why are the proponents of litigation continuing to waste taxpayer resources in this vain effort so a few trial lawyers can hopefully become very rich while accomplishing precisely nothing on climate change?”
By contrast, Benjamin Franta writes in an American Bar Association publication on litigation in the US:
Since 2017, more than 20 suits have been filed against oil and gas companies by governmental entities across the United States, including seven by state attorneys general. 5 [The numbers herein refer to endnotes in the text not reproduced here.] These suits generally allege historical and ongoing unlawful deceptive conduct by the defendants, including concealment of internal knowledge regarding global warming, affirmative misrepresentations of climate science, and ongoing deception regarding the defendants’ activities and fossil fuel products. 6 Much of the historical evidence supporting these cases has been developed within the last decade by academics, journalists, and other researchers, and the evidentiary basis for the plaintiffs’ claims continues to expand. 7 Nineteen of these suits remain ongoing, and their number has grown steadily, with four filed in 2021. 8
For the most part, these suits fall into two categories: cost recovery and consumer protection. Thirteen cost recovery suits are ongoing under various causes of action including public nuisance, private nuisance, negligence, trespass, failure to warn, design defect, conspiracy, and unjust enrichment. 9 These suits seek compensation for climate adaptation costs, such as sea walls, on the theory that the defendants’ allegedly unlawful conduct substantially contributed to those costs. (A recent study, for example, estimated the cost of sea walls to protect from sea level rise to be at least $400 billion nationwide by 2040.) 10 Because sea level rise is easily attributable to global warming, most of these suits have been filed by coastal cities, counties, and states, although ongoing advances in climate attribution science suggest that cost recovery suits may soon expand in geographic scope and the types of damages claimed. 11
Thirteen consumer protection cases also remain ongoing (seven seek both cost recovery and consumer protection). 12 These suits are brought under state consumer protection statutes barring misleading consumer-facing communications and other unfair business practices. The evidentiary basis for these actions is similar to that for cost recovery suits, although the applicable statutes often don’t require a showing of damages and instead carry a civil penalty for each instance of materially misleading communication. 13 These statutes helped undergird successful litigation against tobacco and opioid companies in the 1990s and 2010s, respectively.
Since 2017, these cost recovery and consumer protection suits have largely been occupied with pretrial motions, and no case has yet reached the merits. Plaintiffs, however, have generally prevailed against venue and dismissal motions, and at least some of these cases are expected to go to trial in 2022. 14 [Boldface added.]
After discussing international litigation Franta concludes:
“For any lawyer interested in corporate accountability, human rights, the environment, or the fate of the world, climate litigation is an area to watch and engage. The drivers behind these suits—worsening global warming, growing evidence of corporate malfeasance, advances in science allowing attribution of impacts and damages, increasing viability of non-fossil energy systems, and broadening psychological and political salience of climate—all point toward more action in the future. As the world continues to heat up, climate litigation will, too.” [Boldface added]
All the above “drivers” are questionable. In his essay, Allison questions the competence of Franta. See links under Litigation Issues.
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Number of the Week: Number 1. According to Bloomberg energy tracking, US LNG exports have exceeded exports from Australia and Qatar, making the US the largest exporter of liquified natural gas in the world.
“A shale gas revolution, coupled with billions of dollars of investments in liquefaction facilities, transformed the U.S. from a net LNG importer to a top exporter in less than a decade. Gas production has surged by roughly 70% from 2010 and the nation is expected to have the world’s largest export capacity by the end of 2022 once Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass terminal comes online.”
The US may be exceeded soon, with major expansions planned by Qatar.
“U.S. LNG export terminals sent out a record 1,043 cargoes in 2021, with Asian nations making up nearly half of the destinations and Europe making up one-third, ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows.”
The shale revolution has made a tremendous change in this industry, critical for national defense. No longer is Washington declaring the US is about to run out of oil and natural gas as it did during the Carter Administration, some 40 years ago. Now, the Biden Administration is trying the suppress the industry using the false claim of a climate crisis. No wonder OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia) did not respond to Biden’s call for expanding their production. They cannot believe him. Writing in Oil Price.com, Irina Slav quotes Alexander Novak, “Russia’s Deputy PM and top OPEC+ negotiator:”
“‘For some reason,’ the official said, ‘The U.S. is not asking its own shale oil companies to boost production, which has fallen considerably over the last two years. On the contrary, they are deliberately reducing their production. I believe there is a certain contradiction in these actions.’”
See links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Energy Issues – US.
Censorship
“Unreliable and harmful claims”: This website has been demonetized by Google
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 7, 2022
Washington Post pushes Twitter, Facebook to silence Milloy
By Steve Milloy, Junk Science.com, Jan 6, 2022 [H/t WUWT]
https://junkscience.com/2022/01/washington-post-pushes-twitter-facebook-to-silence-milloy/
Link to article:
Election misinformation helped fuel the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Now, climate misinformation threatens the planet.
By Maxine Joselow, Climate 202, Washington Post, Jan 6, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/01/06/election-misinformation-helped-fuel-jan-6-capitol-attack-now-climate-misinformation-threatens-planet/
[SEPP Comment: The Washington Post doing what the Washington Post accused President Nixon of doing?]
No End To The Audacious Deplatformings
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 5, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-1-4-no-end-to-the-audacious-deplatformings
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
8 College Professors Canceled by Left
By Douglas Blair, The Daily Signal, Jan 3, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Dec 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Climate Change and CO2 Not a Problem
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 4, 2021
Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting: a comment
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Dynamics, Aug 10, 2021
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05913-7
Tyranny in the Name of Climate Change
By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, Jan 6, 2022
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/01/tyranny_in_the_name_of_climate_change.html
Link to paper: Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change, and the cost of climate policies
By Bjorn Lomborg, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, July 2020
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157
Climate Policies Put Lives in Danger
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 4, 2022
United States Not Big Bad Plastics Polluter
By William Balgord, Cornwall Alliance, Jan 5, 2021
In 2021, More Than 260 Human Beings Were Burned Alive Due To Extreme Energy Poverty
By Robert Bryce, Forbes, Dec 30, 2021
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbryce/2021/12/30/in-2021-more-than-260-human-beings-were-burned-alive-due-to-extreme-energy-poverty/?sh=deb1f4c6c6b0
“What makes all of this so stunning, or maybe the word is quaint, is that climate activists in rich countries never tire of denigrating hydrocarbons. To cite just two examples, in January, Bill McKibben, the founder of 350.org and arguably America’s most famous climate activist, published an article in the New Yorker in which he said if there is a ‘basic rule of thumb for dealing with the climate crisis, it would be: stop burning things’ including natural gas. McKibben insists all of us should shift our energy needs to solar and wind energy and that ‘we can, and must, bring the combustion age to a swift end.’”
[SEPP Comment: And make the world, except us, so desperate for fuel they risk their lives for it.]
New Study: Pacific And Indian Ocean Sea Levels Rising ‘Much Slower Than Climate Model Predictions’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 3, 2022
Link to most recent paper: Why the low-lying islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans are expanding?
By Alberto Boretti, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, Dec 3, 2021
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12517-021-08972-6
[SEPP Comment: Using GPS fixed tidal gages, the average rate of rise is +0.46 mm/yr. or 0.018 inches per year, or 1.8 inches per century. Some of the data goes back to 1980.]
Prof Grubb’s Misleading Letter To The Times
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Systematically taking apart the misleading claims of the Professor of Energy and Climate Change UCL (University College London?)]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Meet the team shaking up climate models
By Doug Struck, Christian Science Monitor, Jan 22, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2021/0122/Meet-the-team-shaking-up-climate-models
“’We’ve grown leaps and bounds in our ability to collect climate data, particularly in the last 30 years since we’ve had satellites,’ says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute, a think tank in Oakland, California. ‘But at the end of the day, we need to know what is likely to happen in the next few decades and the rest of the century and centuries to come. And for that, you need some sort of model.’”
[SEPP Comment: Yet Hausfather and others ignore atmospheric data taken by satellites.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The Hill: Disintegrating Western Democracies Must Accept Climate Advice
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 4, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Does China accept climate advice for disintegrating academic climate scientists?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Myopic politicians are wilfully blind to the truth about green energy
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2022
Plastics are not forever: Bugs already evolved 30,000 new plastic eating enzymes
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 4, 2022
It’s just a fashion: Even the Climate Worriers don’t want to fly less, drive less or eat less meat either
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 3, 2022
Climate Council: Global Warming Now Causes MORE Rainfall
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 6, 2022
It Is A Physical Principle
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 6, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/01/it-is-a-physical-principle-2/
[SEPP Comment: New Jersey snows plus the attack on David Legates.]
After Paris!
Climate Change: ‘All or Nothing’ Is a Dead End. ‘All of the Above’ Works.
By Heather Reams, Real Clear Energy, Jan 5, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/01/05/climate_change_all_or_nothing_is_a_dead_end_all_of_the_above_works_810562.html
Change in US Administrations
Biden fuels his own political disaster with energy fantasy
Wind and solar power are terribly unreliable
By Patrick J. Michaels, Washington Times, Jan 3, 2021
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jan/3/biden-fuels-his-own-political-disaster-with-energy/
Yes, the Biden Administration DOES Have a Magic Wand for Energy Prices
By Rick Perry & Jason Isaac, Real Clear Energy, Jan 05, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/01/05/yes_the_biden_administration_does_have_a_magic_wand_for_energy_prices_810703.html
Seeking a Common Ground
Science is in trouble
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Examiner, Jan 4, 2022
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/science-is-in-trouble
The Colorado Wildfire and Global Warming: Is there a Connection?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 6, 2022
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-colorado-wildfire-and-global.html
“Global warming had very little to do with the destructive wildfire that occurred in Colorado on December 30th. Those pushing a global warming narrative for this event (e.g, some media, politicians, and activists) are misinforming the public.
“But it is worse than that. Blaming global warming undermines efforts to clearly define the risks and to take coherent, effective actions to reduce the chances of such wildfire disasters happening again.”
[SEPP Comment: Every significant weather event since the maximum extent of the last major glaciation 18,000 years ago can be blamed on global warming. The claims are meaningless.]
Existential risks
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jan 4, 2022
Study Suggests Human Exposure To 20,000 ppm CO2 Has No Effect On Cognition, Health
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 6, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
2022: The Year of Inflation
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 2, 2022
British Medical Journal: “The End Of The Pandemic Won’t Be Televised”. It’ll End When Media Lose Interest
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 2, 2022
Link to essay: The end of the pandemic will not be televised
By David Robertson and Peter Doshi, BMJ, Dec 14, 2021
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj-2021-068094
[SEPP Comment: Fig 1: “Monthly all cause death rate in the US, with arrows and bold dates indicating the beginning of pandemics, Jan 1900 to Sept 2021” is noteworthy. COVID is no where near as deadly as the 1918-1920 flu.]
‘Following the Science’ Leads to Confusing COVID Crossroads
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Jan 5, 2022
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/covid-19-science-joe-bide/2022/01/05/id/1051102/
Measurement Issues — Surface
2021 Was The Coldest Year In England Since 2013
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2022
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for December, 2021: +0.21 deg. C.
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jan 2, 2022
Changing Weather
How Pressure Systems Control Climate Part 2: ITCZ, Rainforests And Deserts
By Jim Steele, Via WUWT, Jan 4, 2021
Video
Transcript
Western Pacific Typhoon Trends
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2022
Study: Climate change could lead to more hurricanes hitting Northeastern cities
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 4, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/588228-study-climate-change-could-lead-to-more-hurricanes-hitting
Link to paper: Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
By Joshua Studholme, et al. Nature Geoscience, Dec 29, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00859-1
Changing Seas
Aircraft reveal surprisingly strong Southern Ocean carbon sink
Study relies on airborne measurements of carbon dioxide to estimate ocean uptake
Press Release, NSF, Jan 3, 2021
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=304143&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Not Washed Away, On the Highest Tide
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Jan 5, 2022
“Much thanks to Charles for republishing at WhatsUpWithThat. I really appreciate the comments in the thread including from Rud Istvan and John Tillman. They are suggesting the platforms could date to the Eemian high stand that was 120,000 years ago.”
[SEPP Comment: During the Eemian, limestone used in the old Miami courthouse was formed which was mined from quarries now above sea level.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
More Sea Ice Than 100 Years Ago
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 5, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/01/more-sea-ice-than-100-years-ago/
[SEPP Comment: Includes articles on solar disturbances and unusual weather about 100 years ago.]
A ‘mass exodus’ of polar bears from Alaska to Russia has taken place, local residents claim
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 2, 2022
“If the allegation is upheld by scientific evidence, polar bears will not have been pushed out of Alaska by lack of summer sea ice (i.e. ‘forced to migrate’) but rather pulled into the Chukchi Sea by abundant food resources that did not exist when summer ice cover was more extensive. It’s a big difference and it speaks to the benefits of less summer sea ice that no one wants to discuss.
“Moreover, moving temporarily to where conditions suit them best is what polar bears do all the time: it’s not a new phenomenon, it’s a prominent feature of their biology (Crockford 2019).”
Remembering the terrorizing Belushya Guba polar bears: lots of Barents Sea ice cover this year
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jan 6, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Scavenging is often easier than hunting.]
Collapse Of The Polar Melting Scam
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 5, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/01/collapse-of-the-polar-melting-scam-2/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
GMOs A Tool Of Colonialism? Debunking A Popular ‘Social Justice’ Myth
By Cameron English, ACSH, Dec 23, 2021
https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/12/23/gmos-tool-colonialism-debunking-popular-social-justice-myth-16012
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Climate modeling confirms historical records showing rise in hurricane activity
New results show North Atlantic hurricanes have increased in frequency over the last 150 years
Press Release, NSF, Jan 4, 2022
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=304148&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Link to paper: Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years
By Kerry Emanuel, Nature Communications, Dec 2, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27364-8
From the abstract: “The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change.”
Lowering Standards
Met Office Hype New Year’s Day “Record Temperature”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Here’s How DSOs Can Create a Reliable & Secure Smart Grid
By Jane Marsh, Real Clear Energy, Jan 3, 2022
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/01/03/heres_how_dsos_can_create_a_reliable_and_secure_smart_grid_810332.html
“Energy professionals must develop a resilient electric grid to meet the increased demand for emission-free power. Effective DSO systems can create an abundant energy supply by supporting storage technology and decreasing electricity waste. The smart electric grid lets consumers define its production rates, which differs from the traditional grid’s process.
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
BBC’s Hurricane Misinformation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 4, 2022
“How the BBC lie, cheat and misinform:”
“More honest reporting from the BBC would have stated that there is no evidence that hurricanes are getting worse, although they might in future.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Austrian Climate Researchers Excited About Manipulating the Minds of Children
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 5, 2022
Where Parents Can Get Help with Climate Anxiety
If you’re looking to the future and wondering exactly how to prepare your children for a changing world, these resources can help.
By Emma Pattee, Wired, Jan 1, 2022
https://www.wired.com/story/parents-get-help-climate-anxiety/
“’Eighty-three percent of moms are concerned about climate change across all political parties and races. That’s why I cofounded Science Moms,’ climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe told me. Science Moms offers a free toolkit to help you talk about climate change with your friends and family, and it also hosts free webinars on climate-related topics.”
[SEPP Comment: “Katharine Anne Scott Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist and professor of political science at Texas Tech University, where she is director of the Climate Science Center.” Wikipedia]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate lockdown: Paper published in prestigious journal laments ‘democracy’ & calls for ‘authoritarian environmentalism’ modeled after COVID lockdowns to fight climate ’emergency’: Political Legitimacy, Authoritarianism, and Climate Change – Published online by Cambridge University Press – American Political Science Review, Dec 6, 2021
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Dec 31, 2021
Link to paper: Political Legitimacy, Authoritarianism, and Climate Change
By Ross Mittiga, Cambridge University Press, Dec 6, 2021
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/political-legitimacy-authoritarianism-and-climate-change/E7391723A7E02FA6D536AC168377D2DE
Questioning European Green
Revealed: The hidden cost of going green
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2022
EU: Natural Gas and Nuclear are now Green Energy
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 5, 2021
Letter To The Times
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 5, 2022
“The ‘quarter of our electricity’ currently coming from renewables is in fact extremely expensive, averaging about two thirds dearer than even the currently inflated cost of gas fired generation.”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Environmentalism has lost its way
By David Wojick, CFACT, Jan 4, 2022
https://www.cfact.org/2022/01/04/environmentalism-has-lost-its-way/
Funding Issues
Fossil Fuel Financing Under Pressure As Wall Street Caves To ESG Demands
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Jan 2, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fossil-Fuel-Financing-Under-Pressure-As-Wall-Street-Caves-To-ESG-Demands.html
“’With the current administration in Washington being so anti-fossil-fuel industry, I question how much longer I will stay in the business. The good news is that they have so little understanding of the free market that prices usually spike with the Democrats in charge,’ an executive said in the comments to the Q4 Dallas Fed Energy Survey.”
Forbes Pushes Climate Activists to Buy Big Oil Shares
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 4, 2021
The Political Games Continue
Manifesto For 2022
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2022
[SEPP Comment: For UK politicians.]
Litigation Issues
2021 Revealed Why Climate Litigation Will Continue to Fail
By William Allison, Energy in Depth, Dec 29, 2021
https://eidclimate.org/2021-revealed-why-climate-litigation-will-continue-to-fail/
Climate litigation rising: Hot spots to watch
By Benjamin Franta, American Bar Association, Dec 22, 2021
https://www.americanbar.org/groups/environment_energy_resources/publications/trends/2021-2022/january-february-2022/climate-litigation-rising/
“The drivers behind these suits—worsening global warming, growing evidence of corporate malfeasance, advances in science allowing attribution of impacts and damages, increasing viability of non-fossil energy systems, and broadening psychological and political salience of climate—all point toward more action in the future. As the world continues to heat up, climate litigation will, too.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: As McKitrick has shown many attribution studies are false science.]
Call Me NAESB – Standards Organization’s Base Contract Is Central To Winter Storm Uri Litigation
By Rick Smead, RBN Energy, Jan 3, 2022
https://rbnenergy.com/call-me-naesb-standards-organizations-base-contract-central-to-winter-storm-uri-litigation
“To what extent was one party to an agreement protected from being in breach of contract because their deal said some things could be force majeure, or beyond their control? The purchase and sale of natural gas at issue in these contracts is overwhelmingly done through a standard base contract produced by the North American Energy Standards Board, or NAESB (pronounced “Nays-be,” not “Nazz-be”)”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Renewable Obligation Certificates–The Looming Scandal
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 2, 2022
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA adds new air pollutant to hazardous list for first time in 30 years
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 6, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/588655-epa-adds-new-air-pollutant-to-hazardous-list-for-first-time-in-30
Here’s Why OPEC+ Didn’t Respond To U.S. Calls For More Oil
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com Dec 29, 2021
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Heres-Why-OPEC-Didnt-Respond-To-US-Calls-For-More-Oil.html
Wrecking the private rented sector
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Jan 4, 2022
Warrington Borough Council’s Energy Company [Together Energy] About To Go Bust
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2022
“Together Energy boast that all of their electricity comes from wind, solar and hydro:
“This is all very puzzling, because the Professor Grubbs and the rest of the renewable lobby keep telling us that renewable energy is much cheaper than nasty fossil fuels.
“Surely then they should be immune from the rising price of gas, which has been pushing up costs for other electricity suppliers?”
US becomes world’s top LNG exporter for first time ever
Output from American LNG facilities outpaced Qatar in December, according to data tracked by Bloomberg, but the US’s top spot could be short-lived.
By Stephen Stapczynski and Sergio Chapa, Bloomberg, Jan 4, 2022
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/1/4/us-becomes-worlds-top-lng-exporter-for-first-time-ever
Protect Our Power Identifies Top Four Priorities to Safeguard Electric Grid in 2022
Press Release, Protect Our Power, Dec 22, 2021
Finally, Bloomberg Admits Renewables Mania Caused Energy Shortages
Plus, new Environmental Progress Analysis finds German emissions rose in 2021 and in will rise again in 2022
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Dec 4, 2021
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/finally-bloomberg-admits-renewables
“Now, with New England at grave risk of energy shortages for the exact same reasons as Europe, it’s time for the American people and their representatives to fully wake up to the reality that modern societies cannot rely on unreliable renewables.”
The Virginia Clean Economy Act
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 5, 2022
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/01/the-virginia-clean-economy-act/
“Under the Virginia Clean Economy Act the intent is to eliminate fossil fuel powered vehicles.
“If this rule was in place, it is likely many people would be freezing to death right now on I-95, including Virginia Democrat Tim Kaine.”
[N.Y. Governor] Hochul calls for ban on natural gas in new buildings
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 6, 2022
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/588584-hochul-calls-for-ban-on-natural-gas-in-new-buildings
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Fancy Like Permian – The 2022 Outlook Is Bright For Our Favorite U.S. BasinBy Jason Ferguson, RBN Energy, Jan 6, 2022
https://rbnenergy.com/fancy-like-permian-the-2022-outlook-is-bright-for-our-favorite-us-basin
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Developing nation China makes artificial Sun — nuclear fusion at 70 million degrees for 17 minutes
By Jo Nova, Her blog, Jan 7, 2022
Link to article: China’s Artificial Sun Breaks Record by Hitting 120 Million F in Race for Nuclear Fusion
By Robert Lea, Newsweek, Jan 6, 2022
https://www.newsweek.com/china-artificial-sun-breaks-record-120-million-farenheit-nuclear-fusion-1666265
“Amazing what countries too poor to commit to Net Zero get up to.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind Power Drops By A Third In Q3
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 1, 2022
“It is quite shocking to see that wind generation has fallen by 38% for onshore and 24% for offshore year on year. This is despite new capacity being added. [2020 to 2021]
“We are familiar with short term drops in output, maybe for a few days or even weeks. But to lose effectively a third of generation for a whole quarter shows just how dangerous over reliance on wind power is.
“The difference was made up largely from imports, which doubled:
“How long we can count on that is anybody’s guess.”
Net Metering Rethink: Rooftop Solar in Trouble (a hidden subsidy in addition to ITC)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Jan 5, 2022
” Much of California’s rooftop solar growth has been fueled by the net-metering system, which allows solar customers to sell the excess electricity they don’t use back to the grid at a pretty generous value, the same retail rate they are charged for their home electricity. That has helped spur solar adoption as intended, but someone else has had to pick up the tab.”
How sustainable is wind power?
Wind power is essential to fighting climate change, yet building the turbines is energy-intensive and the blades are made from plastics. So how eco-friendly is wind power really?
By Staff, DW, Dec 27, 2021
https://www.dw.com/en/how-sustainable-is-wind-power/a-60268971
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Heat Pumps v Hydrogen: (Scalded Or Burned!!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 3, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Achilles Heel of Battery-Powered Vehicles, Part 1
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jan 6, 2022
I-95 Ice Storm Overnight Traffic Jam – Imagine you were Stuck in an EV
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 5, 2022
EV Chargers To Be Separately Metered
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 6, 2022
“Forget about all the weasel words – the plan is clear; if the grid is overloaded, we can forget about charging our cars at night. We can only charge up when the National Grid says we can.”
California Dreaming
$6 Gasoline Could Become The New Normal In This U.S. State
By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Jan 3, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/6-Gasoline-Could-Become-The-New-Normal-In-This-US-State.html
Health, Energy, and Climate
Cold still causes far more deaths than heat in India
Press Release by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Jan 5, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2022-01-cold-deaths-india.html
Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature in Pune city, India: A time series analysis from 2004 to 2012
By Vijendra Ingole, et al. Environmental Research
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121016054?via%3Dihub
The Flint Water Dept. Failed Its Chemistry Test
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Jan 4, 2022
https://www.acsh.org/news/2022/01/04/flint-water-dept-failed-its-chemistry-test-16034
“Once the government loses its citizens’ trust, it is very hard ever to get it back. One innovative approach being used in Newark, New Jersey, a city that recently removed all its lead pipes, is to mail out free lead test kits to all citizens. The hope is that when residents get their information directly from a testing laboratory rather than from government officials, they might feel confident enough in the results to trust that their drinking water is safe and to begin drinking the water.”
“Flint was a failure of government at every level, from local Flint officials to the highest level of EPA. There were many governmental safeguards put into place, and they all failed.”
Other Scientific News
Researchers uncover genetic instructions for cells that help crops tolerate drought and flooding
A single-cell map of corn’s root reveals a regulator of cellular diversity
Press Release, NSF, Jan 3, 2021
https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=304144&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Experiments show algae can survive in Mars-like environment
By Staff Writers, Beijing (XNA), Dec 30, 2021
https://www.marsdaily.com/reports/Experiments_show_algae_can_survive_in_Mars_like_environment_999.html
“The amount of carbon dioxide in Mars’ atmosphere is several times that of Earth, said Xiao. Algae consume carbon dioxide and produce oxygen that makes life possible for other species.”
Out of Africa: The path of Homo sapiens
By Staff Writers, Bonn, Germany (SPX) Jan 01, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Out_of_Africa_The_path_of_Homo_sapiens_999.html
Link to book: The Journey of Modern Humans from Africa to Europe: Culture-Environmental Interaction and Mobility
Ed.: Thomas Litt; Jürgen Richter; Frank Schäbitz, 2021
https://www.schweizerbart.de/publications/detail/isbn/9783510655342/Litt_et_al_Eds_The_Journey_of_Modern?af=featured
Other News that May Be of Interest
New dates for Viking trade
By Staff Writers, Aarhus, Denmark (SPX) Jan 01, 2022
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_dates_for_Viking_trade_999.html
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Wind will be Competitive! (Secretary Chu from 2011)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 6, 2022
“It’s time to pull the plug and let the market decide between energies. The government–the taxpayers–should be neutral.”
ARTICLES
Today’s Soaring Energy Prices Are Only the Beginning
Current ‘net zero’ plans will cost many trillions while doing little to slow global warming.
By Bjorn Lomborg. WSJ, Jan. 5, 2022
https://www.wsj.com/articles/soaring-energy-prices-only-the-beginning-climate-change-net-zero-renewable-wind-electricity-11641417084?mod=hp_opin_pos_6#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The president of the Copenhagen Consensus and Visiting Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution writes:
“Energy prices are soaring, and it’s likely a sign of things to come. The rise can be blamed on a variety of things, including the demand rebound after the lockdowns ended, a drop in renewable electricity output from a lack of wind in Europe during most of 2021, and increasingly costly climate policies. But while the pandemic will end and the wind will blow again, climate policies to achieve “net zero” emissions will keep hiking prices.
“Barack Obama acknowledged in 2008 that electricity prices “would necessarily skyrocket” under his proposed climate policies. He was more candid than many of today’s politicians and advocates. Limiting the use of fossil fuels requires making them more expensive and pushing people toward green alternatives that remain pricier and less efficient.
“In the U.K., real electricity prices have doubled since 2003, after dropping fivefold over the 20th century. British climate policy had already added more than £10 billion annually to the national electricity bill by 2020. Even before last year’s energy price hikes, 50 million to 80 million people in the European Union couldn’t afford to heat their homes sufficiently. That’s likely to get worse, as this year European energy bills are expected to increase by almost $400 billion. And in the U.S., gasoline prices soared to a seven-year high in October, while gas heating is predicted to be 30% more expensive this winter than the previous one.
“Costs will continue to rise if politicians remain bent on achieving net-zero emissions globally. Bank of America finds that achieving net zero globally by 2050 will cost $150 trillion over 30 years—almost twice the combined annual gross domestic product of every country on earth. The annual cost ($5 trillion) is more than all the world’s governments and households spend every year on education. Academic studies find the policy is even costlier. The largest database on climate scenarios shows that keeping temperature rises to 2 degrees Celsius—a less stringent policy than net zero by midcentury—would likely cost $8.3 trillion, or 3.3% of world GDP, every year by 2050, and the costs keep escalating so that by the end of the century taxpayers will have paid about $1 quadrillion—a thousand trillion—in total.
“These estimates are based on the heroic assumption that climate policy costs will be spread efficiently, with big emitters China and India cutting the most. New Delhi says it will only keep moving toward net zero if the rest of the world pays it $1 trillion by 2030, which won’t happen. Other developing nations are showing the same understandable reluctance. This means that achieving global net-zero emissions by 2050 will be impossible. Those cuts that are enforced will most likely occur in rich countries, taking a smaller notch out of global emissions at high cost.
“Though the EU, the U.K., the U.S. and others have adopted national net-zero emissions goals, few have undertaken rigorous cost estimates. The official independent assessment done in New Zealand shows achieving net zero by midcentury will cost 16% of its GDP annually by 2050. That is more than its entire current budget for social security, welfare, health, education, police, courts, defense and the environment—combined.
“For the U.S., one recent study in Nature found reducing emissions only 80% by 2050 will cost more than $2.1 trillion in today’s money annually by midcentury. That is more than $5,000 per American a year. The cost of achieving 100% reductions would be far higher. And this study assumes reductions will be carried out in the most efficient way possible—namely using a single national, steadily increasing carbon tax—but that’s unlikely, and with less-than-ideal policies, the price would be still higher.”
After discussing that climate activists ignore costs, but the population cannot, Lomborg concludes:
“The only politically viable approach to fighting climate change is to focus on ramping up research and development to innovate down the price of green energy. Governments should invest across all options including nuclear fusion and fission, solar, wind and improved batteries, and better biofuels. Only when green energy is cheaper than fossil fuel—or at least close to cheaper—will voters be willing to switch.”
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