The Week That Was: 2021-10-30 (October 30, 2021)
Delivered to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Challenge
Quote of the Week: “With a real view all the information harmonize, however with a false one the information quickly conflict.” Aristotle: Ethics, Guide I, Part 8, 10 [H/t Paul MacRae]
Variety of the Week: Thirty-one Years
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Challenge (SEPP)
Scope: This week the UN is holding the 26th Convention of the Events (COP) to the United Nations Framework Conference on Local weather Change (UNFCCC). UNFCCC entered into power on March 21, 1994. The doc has morphed into what is known as the Paris Settlement. Sadly, the US Senate agreed to the UNFCCC with situations. Although the situations haven’t been met, the doc is usually handled as a treaty. Underneath the US Structure a treaty, which have to be permitted by two-thirds of the Senators, is a part of the US Federal regulation and is absolutely enforceable.
The Paris Settlement was signed by the Obama Administration as an government settlement, not a treaty, and it has by no means been submitted to the Senate for ratification as required for a treaty to be enforceable. The Biden Administration treats the Paris Settlement as regulation, however it most likely acknowledges that it can not hope to acquire ratification. Along with the World Meteorological Group (WMO), the UNFCCC created the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change to:
“…present policymakers with common scientific assessments on local weather change, its implications and potential future dangers, in addition to to place ahead adaptation and mitigation choices.”
The IPCC has failed to use the scientific methodology together with correcting grievous errors and omitting vital information that contradicts its conclusions. Consequently, it has failed to supply policymakers with scientific assessments. As an alternative, it gives policymakers with political assessments.
Moderately than deal with the gathering of tens of 1000’s of political sorts, and others, gathering on the COP 26 being held in Glasgow, this TWTW will deal with among the errors and omissions that occurred within the IPCC course of, rendering its outcomes scientifically meaningless. With out bodily proof supporting them, the IPCC adaptation and mitigation choices don’t have any scientifically convincing basis.
With out bodily proof, IPCC depends on elaborate mathematical fashions which have by no means been validated, that’s proven to suit the bodily world they supposedly describe. Many of those deficiencies have been introduced out on the 14th Heartland Worldwide Convention on Local weather Change, from October 15 to 18. Two of the essential displays are mentioned under. Extra displays might be mentioned subsequent week. See hyperlinks underneath Difficult the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, and https://www.ipcc.ch/#:~:text=The%20IPCC%20was%20created%20to,of%20knowledge%20on%20climate%20change.
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Converging Fashions: As mentioned later, the fashions utilized by the IPCC are diverging from the bodily world by rising quantities. The IPCC ignores any want for convergence, but their international local weather fashions are constructed on climate fashions made extra elaborate. This creates a big downside in reliability. Numerical climate fashions have to be up to date always, a number of instances a day. But climate fashions can’t be relied upon for prediction of climate occasions even two weeks out, often just a few days.
Climate is a non-linear system with many variations. Although others had famous issues with non-linear techniques earlier than, beginning within the Sixties mathematician Edward Lorenz developed what turned chaos principle, small adjustments to the start of a chaotic system, or mannequin of 1, could cause big variations in outcomes over time. Most climate forecasters at the moment are accustomed to the issue and are reluctant to make agency forecasts till they see the totally different fashions are converging on the identical end result. The “spaghetti charts” exhibiting nice variation in local weather fashions over time usually are not convergence.
Final week’s TWTW had a hyperlink to a podcast by meteorologist Cliff Mass on a coastal cyclone coming to the US Pacific Northwest that could be the strongest to hit that space. Stronger cyclones happen additional north, within the Gulf of Alaska. However when it comes to barometric stress at sea degree, this one could possibly be the strongest to hit southern British Columbia and Washington State. On October 22, Mass reported disagreements among the many climate fashions prevented him from forecasting precisely the place the storm would hit.
It was not till October 23, just a few days earlier than the storm hit, that the fashions converged to a constant answer, giving Mass the arrogance to make a forecast of the place it might hit, Vancouver Island. Additionally, he introduced out that the energy of the storm would dissipate rapidly (collapse). It began to hit on October 24. That is an instance of accountable climate forecasting, recognizing that every climate mannequin has its personal strengths and weaknesses, and the convergence of the fashions provides forecasts reliability.
Sadly, the IPCC doesn’t acknowledge the necessity for local weather fashions to converge to a constant answer, that may be examined towards bodily proof. As an alternative, it makes use of a mean of all of the fashions. A mean of serious errors continues to be a big error. See hyperlinks underneath Mannequin Concern, Altering Climate, and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3202497/.
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IPCC Mannequin Deficiencies: On the Heartland Convention, in his Breakfast Keynote handle, Patrick Michaels of the Aggressive Enterprise Institute offered a masterly abstract of among the vital errors and omissions within the international local weather fashions utilized by the IPCC. Later that morning throughout the science panel 2A, The IPCC and the Scientific Methodology, David Legates, who had acquired the Fredrick Seitz Award, amplified the importance of those errors and omissions and added extra ones.
Michaels factors out that many out and in of presidency are insisting that we should “comply with the science” and alter vitality insurance policies to suit international local weather fashions. The fashions are getting used to vary our lifestyle. But, the fashions have unsuitable enter, the unrealistic excessive carbon dioxide emissions utilized by the UN IPCC; the fashions run far too scorching, significantly overestimating the warming of the planet; and we live on a modestly warming, greener planet, nothing to be feared.
There’s even disagreement within the institution about the usage of IPCC fashions, for instance Michaels cites Hausfather and Peters (Nature 2020) who wrote:
“Cease utilizing the worst-case situation for local weather warming because the most certainly end result – extra real looking baselines to make for higher coverage.”
Others have estimated that the huge bulk, over 10,000 papers, deal with this unrealistic worst-case. Michaels goes into some element on how fictitious this situation is. He discusses among the points glossed over by way of fashions, corresponding to stratospheric cooling and the rising disparity between international local weather fashions and observations. He notes that the devices on climate balloons are fastidiously calibrated each day earlier than the balloons are launched. [As Anthony Watts has shown, surface temperature data comes from instruments, many of which sorely lack calibration and are in areas where the settings have greatly changed, resulting in very unreliable data.
Michaels brings up that the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was shared by Suki Manabe of the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL):
“For the physical modeling of the earth’s climate, quantifying variability, and reliably predicting global warming”
Michaels then shows how deficient the GFDL modeling is, and the model results are among the most extreme in overestimating the warming rate at the so-called hotspot roughly 10 km above the tropics, when compared with atmospheric observations. He then covers other issues such as the models are becoming worse, claims of increasing hurricanes are contradicted by evidence, claims of increasing tornadoes are contradicted by evidence, but NOAA removed the web site explaining that. What NOAA cannot remove are death certificates which are way down from extreme storms. Contrary to years of false claims, crop production is increasing significantly while population growth is steady, or declining.
One should note that one of the worst performing global climate model, the one by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL), is sponsored by NOAA. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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(Broken) Climate Models: David Legates is professor of climatology in the Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences at the University of Delaware and an adjunct professor in the university’s Department of Applied Economics & Statistics. He went into further detail on the likely problems of climate models.
Climate models should give rough ideas of what may be. Climate models run hot. The question is why? It may be the climate model operator rather than the model itself. What is the response of the modeled temperature over time? To a large part, modeled equations are regression equations, and the coefficients are guessed at – optimized for a purpose (model tuning). The operators keep climate sensitivity within in a preconceived accepted range. The modelers choose what they want! The entire approach is subjective, not objective. Tuning climate models to a desired result is not a legitimate objective under the scientific method.
Legates then discusses how CO2 is estimated to increase over time. Representative Concentration Pathways – how much temperatures will increase over time. These are now called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), but they have the same watts per square meter of forcing by 2100. Which ones make sense? Certainly not those in the US National Climate Assessment (USNCA) which are based on extreme scenarios. It should be made clear that such extreme estimates are far from “business as usual” but it is not. Legates estimates that 80 to 90% of papers we see are based on extreme scenarios, Thus, what is called science is unrealistic! The papers overstate the rise in CO2. Legates concludes that climate models overstate both climate sensitivity and the rate at which carbon dioxide is changing over time. This is operator error and deliberate. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Additions and Corrections: Last week’s TWTW discussed issues that Ross McKitrick raised on the use of attribution studies and that statistical theory on which they are based was misstated, and these studies do not meet the conditions of the Gauss Markov Theorem on Generalize Least Squares. In response, Richard Courtney of Cornwall, England, wrote:
“Decades ago, in year 2000, a group of scientists from around the world was assembled to give a briefing at the US Congress in Washington, DC. We met for discussions throughout a few days before the briefing when we all shared our understandings, and I then learned from Ross McKitrick the importance of ‘the 95% confidence interval’.
“Subsequently, I applied that knowledge to consideration of global temperature trends and determined that all the estimates of average global temperature (mean global temperature, MGT) were worthless. I wrote a discussion paper on that finding, I obtained several co-signatories, and I submitted it for publication. A campaign to block publication of the paper was mounted by the self-titled ‘Team’. And an email complaining at that campaign was one of the emails from me that were leaked as part of the collection of emails released as ‘Climategate’.
“My submission to the UK Parliament’s Select Committee investigation (i.e., whitewash) of ‘Climategate’ is recorded in Parliament’s Hansard at
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387b/387we02.htm
“and includes this,
“4. I and others tried to publish a discussion paper (see Appendix B) that attempted to explain the problems with analyses of MGT. We compared the data and trends of the Jones et al., GISS and GHCN data sets. These teams each provide 95% confidence limits for their results. However, the results of the teams differ by more than double those limits in several years, and the data sets provided by the teams have different trends. Since all three data sets are compiled from the same available source data (i.e., the measurements mostly made at weather stations using thermometers), and purport to be the same metric (i.e., MGT anomaly), this is surprising. Clearly, the methods of compilation of MGT time series can generate spurious trends (where ‘spurious’ means different from reality), and such spurious trends must exist in all but at most one of the data sets.”
“And this
“7. Thus, we determined that—whichever way MGT is considered—MGT is not an appropriate metric for use in attribution studies.
“8. However, the compilers of the MGT data sets frequently alter their published data of past MGT (sometimes they have altered the data in each of several successive months). This is despite the fact that there is no obvious and/or published reason for changing a datum of MGT for years that were decades ago: the temperature measurements were obtained in those years so the change can only be an effect of altering the method(s) of calculating MGT from the measurements. But the MGT data sets often change. The MGT data always changed between submission of the paper and completion of the peer review process. Thus, the frequent changes to MGT data sets prevented publication of the paper.
“9. Whatever you call this method of preventing publication of a paper, you cannot call it science.
But this method prevented publication of information that proved the estimates of MGT and AGW are wrong and the amount by which they are wrong cannot be known.
(a) I can prove that we submitted the paper for publication.
(b) I can prove that Nature rejected it for a silly reason:
“We publish original data and do not publish comparisons of data sets”
(c) I can prove that whenever we submitted the paper to a journal one or more of the Jones et al., GISS and GHCN data sets changed so either the paper was rejected because it assessed incorrect data, or we had to withdraw the paper to correct the data it assessed.
“But I cannot prove who or what caused this.”
“I hope this is interesting and I am copying it to GWPF as a courtesy because it mentions them.”
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Number of the Week: Thirty-one Years: In his talk at the Heartland Conference, Howard Hayden points out that the widely accepted Stefan-Boltzmann law for blackbody radiation has not been mentioned in IPCC reports before AR6 (2021) a period of thirty-one years. A blackbody is an idealized concept for an object that absorbs all electromagnetic radiation that contacts it. The law states that the “total radiant heat power emitted from a surface is proportional to the fourth power of its absolute temperature.” As will be discussed in the next TWTW, Hayden shows the IPCC gets it wrong (or ignores its consequences). For a paper discussing this submitted to the American Journal of Physics and immediately rejected without peer review, see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Of moonshine and sunshine
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Censorship
Fact checkers fail to refute polar bear number increases despite extensive ‘expert’ rhetoric
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 27, 2021
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Heartland’s 2021 Climate Conference, Oct 15-17
Video, Multiple Speakers, Accessed Oct 21, 2021
Patrick Michaels: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7JGaasXBLw&list=PLgnnPnL9OL7GWMlMI3YRuLjC2FmS4eWJS&index=15
David Legates: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hs6lDsFipjM&list=PLgnnPnL9OL7GWMlMI3YRuLjC2FmS4eWJS&index=2
A Constraint Equation for Climate
By Howard Hayden, Prof. Emeritus of Physics, UConn, Director of SEPP, October 2021
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Climate Constraint Equation.pdf
China Warming
The CCP is by far the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases on the planet. Is that a problem?
By Richard Lindzen, Tablet Mag, Oct 19, 2021
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/china-warming-richard-lindzen
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W. A. van Wijngaarden, W. Happer, Submitted
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.03098
The Greenhouse Effect, A Summary of Wijngaarden and Happer
By Andy May, CO2 Science, Sep 24, 2021
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V24/sep/a2.php
Nobel Prize Awarded for the Worst Climate Model
By Patrick J. Michaels, Real Clear Policy, Oct 26, 2021
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2021/10/26/nobel_prize_awarded_for_the_worst_climate_model_800542.html
“And, after many modifications and renditions, it is also the most incorrect of all the world’s GCMs at altitude over the vast tropics of the planet.”
Suboptimal Fingerprinting?
By Ross McKitrick, GWPF, 2021
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2021/10/McKitrick-Optimal-Fingerprinting.pdf?mc_cid=4fc745ae60&mc_eid=80ee5bb983
“The Climate Is Changing, And Human Activities Are The Cause”: How, Exactly, Do We Know That?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 28, 2021
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-10-28-the-climate-is-warming-and-human-activities-are-the-cause-how-exactly-do-we-know-that
Link to paper attorney Menton states is easiest to understand:
How the IPCC Sees What Isn’t There
By William M Briggs, GWPF, 2021
The madness of clouds (I)
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
In A Few Days Clouds Affect Earth’s Radiation Budget By More Than CO2 Does In 270 Years
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 25, 2021
The Worm in the Rose
Net Zero agenda hands geopolitical control to China
New paper warns of national security threat of unilateral decarbonisation
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Oct 23, 2021
Link to paper: The Worm in the Rose
By Gwythian Prins, emeritus research profession, London School of Economics, 2021
A Flood Of Superficial Climate Reports
By Richard A. Epstein, Hoover Institution, Oct 25, 2021
https://www.hoover.org/research/flood-superficial-climate-reports
Defending the Orthodoxy
IPCC AR6 Extreme Event Attribution: Unspun Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
The climate project that changed how we understand extreme weather
By Kelly MacNamara, Paris (AFP) Oct 22, 2021
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/The_climate_project_that_changed_how_we_understand_extreme_weather_999.html
Record-breaking California bomb cyclone linked to climate change
By David Knowles, Yahoo News, Oct 25, 2021
https://news.yahoo.com/record-breaking-california-bomb-cyclone-linked-to-climate-change-183607985.html
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Greenpeace co-founder joins climate change skeptics
By Kevin Mooney, Washington Examiner, Oct 26, 2021
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/greenpeace-co-founder-joins-climate-change-skeptics
New data refute Boris Johnson’s wind cost claims
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Oct 28, 2021
New data on offshore wind costs
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Oct 28, 2021
“As always when using levelised costs, it should be noted that this refers only to costs at generator level. The cost of dealing with the intermittency of wind power is not included.”
After Paris!
Chinese President: COP26 a “wake-up call … to mankind”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 25, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Words are not deeds!]
3 points to observe at local weather summit
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 27, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/578627-3-issues-to-watch-at-climate-summit
COP 26 Periods
By Employees, UNFCCC, Accessed Oct 27, 2021
https://unfccc.int/occasion/cop-26
Xi and Putin Go away COP26 Local weather Alarmists within the Lurch
By Vijay Jayaraj, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 27, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/27/xi_and_putin_leave_cop26_climate_alarmists_in_the_lurch_800697.html
Extra Embarrassment: COP26 Luxurious EVs to be Recharged Utilizing Diesel Turbines
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 24, 2021
STOP26
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Subscribe In opposition to Web Zero with Aynsley Kellow
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Oct 26, 2021
Change in US Administrations
Biden’s Local weather Agenda Dies In The Senate
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 26, 2021
Why Everybody Is Flawed About Biden’s $600 Billion Local weather Invoice
By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles, Oil Worth.com, Oct 25, 2021
https://oilprice.com/Various-Vitality/Renewable-Vitality/Why-Everybody-Is-Flawed-About-Bidens-600-Billion-Local weather-Invoice.html
[SEPP Comment: Totally misses the main point: what is the cost of electricity when renewables don’t work?]
Social Advantages of Carbon Dioxide
Larger CO2 ranges liable for ‘greening’ Earth
By Employees, ICECAP, Sep 26, 2021
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/higher_co2_levels_responsible_for_greening_earth/
Issues within the Orthodoxy
Public Need A Referendum On Web Zero
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 27, 2021
Who loves coal? One week to Glasgow and China is immediately digging up document quantities of coal
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 23, 2021
In search of a Widespread Floor
Speech by Václav Klaus on the event of the nationwide vacation on 28 October
Translation by Vystavil Luboš Motl, The Reference Body, Oct
https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/10/speech-by-vaclav-klaus-on-occasion-of.html
Better of WUWT
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 24, 2021
Correlation Is Not Causation
By Susan Goldhaber MPH, ACSH, Oct 20, 2021
https://www.acsh.org/information/2021/10/20/correlation-not-causation-15881
Judith Curry: COP26 “Code Purple” Deceptive (New Jersey information level)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 25, 2021
Mannequin Points
The Storm’s Future is Now Recognized
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 23, 2021
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-storms-future-is-now-known.html
“The fashions have converged to a constant answer, the storm is starting to “bomb”, and I can now present a forecast with some confidence.”
Measurement Points — Floor
UN: Greenhouse fuel ranges hit a brand new document, cuts fall quick
The U.N. climate company says greenhouse fuel concentrations hit a brand new document excessive final 12 months and elevated at a quicker charge than the annual common for the final decade
By Jamey Keaten and Frank Jordans, AP, Oct 25, 2021
https://abcnews.go.com/Expertise/wireStory/greenhouse-gas-concentrations-hit-record-2020-80766356
Local weather Alarmist Deception Distorting Lengthy Established U.S. Warmth Wave Information
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 25, 2021
No September Warming In Greenland, Iceland In Over Two A long time…Arctic Sea Ice Secure Over Previous Decade
By Kirye,and Pierre, No Methods Zone, Oct 27, 2021
1920 or 2020? Albany Australia Version
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Altering Climate
The Local weather Disaster in The 1640s
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 26, 2021
A River Runs By Us
As we speak was a really moist day over Washington State and southern British Columbia.
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 28, 2021
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/a-river-runs-through-us.html
A Document Storm and the Energy Outages Start
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 24, 2021
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/a-record-storm-and-power-outages-begin.html
Nearly 500K with out energy in Massachusetts as nor’easter batters East Coast
By Lexi Lonas, The Hill, Oct 27, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/578688-almost-500k-without-power-in-massachusetts-as-noreaster-batters
[SEPP Comment: Did wind turbines work during the storm?]
Lethal 1930 Heatwave In Europe
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 28, 2021
https://realclimatescience.com/2021/10/deadly-1930-heatwave-in-europe/
October Russian Arctic Flash Freezing
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 25, 2021
Altering Seas
New Information Recommend Greenland’s Relative Sea Ranges Have been 6 Meters Larger 1,500-2,000 Years In the past
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Oct 28, 2021
Hyperlink to paper: Optical relationship of cobble surfaces determines the chronology of Holocene seashore ridges in Greenland
By Souza, et al. Boreas, Jan 2021
https://www.researchgate.internet/publication/348890791_Optical_dating_of_cobble_surfaces_determines_the_chronology_of_Holocene_beach_ridges_in_Greenland
[SEPP Comment: How geological stable is the island where the measurements were taken?]
New York Sea Degree Rise Projections
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 28, 2021
https://realclimatescience.com/2021/10/new-york-sea-level-rise-projections/
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Pt 2: How Sea Ice Controls Arctic Warmth Air flow and Arctic Air Temperatures
By Jim Steele, A Stroll On the Pure Aspect, Oct 20, 2021
https://perhapsallnatural.blogspot.com/2021/10/pt-2-how-sea-ice-controls-arctic-heat.html
Antarctica’s Document Lows Get the Chilly, Chilly Shoulder
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Oct 24, 2021
Unable to See the Polar Bears for the Snow
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Oct 28, 2021
Caught on movie: polar bear stalks, kills [in the water] and eats a Svalbard reindeer however local weather change is hardly responsible
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 26, 2021
“It does point out that conservation practices initiated within the twentieth century that have been meant to bolster reindeer and caribou numbers (equally true for beluga, walrus, and geese) have resulted in additional possibilities for polar bears to achieve success within the twenty first century regardless of decreased summer season sea ice. Oddly, this appears to have caught some biologists abruptly.”
[SEPP Comment: So much for bears stranded on ice not being able to swim.]
Agriculture Points & Worry of Famine
Crop Failures & The “Local weather Catastrophe”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 26, 2021
Local weather Change Contributes to One other Yr of Document Crop Manufacturing in India
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, Oct 28, 2021
Document Grain Harvest In India
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 26, 2021
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?
Local weather hammers
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Have You Seen The Guardian’s Local weather Catastrophe? It Seems To Have Gone Lacking!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 28, 2021
“The extra the push again towards Web Zero grows, the extra determined the propaganda turns into:”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Imprecise?
Stern is unsuitable once more
By Tim Worstall, Web Zero Watch, Oct 27, 2021
In search of patterns
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
Growing massive wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice within the Arctic
By Yufei Zou, et al. Nature Communications, Oct 26, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26232-9
[SEPP Comment: What caused the wildfires in the early 1900s?]
‘By no means seen something prefer it’: astronaut on 2021 local weather disasters
By Juliette COLLEN
Paris (AFP) Oct 28, 2021
https://www.terradaily.com/experiences/Never_seen_anything_like_it_astronaut_on_2021_climate_disasters_999.html
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
High UN Local weather Official: World Battle and Refugee Chaos should you Disobey
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 26, 2021
“In keeping with the UN’s prime local weather official Patricia Espinosa, if nations fail to comply with the UN’s path on local weather change, they may face meals shortages, battle and a flood of local weather refugees.”
BBC’s Faux Local weather Audit Screengrab
By Stephen McIntyre, Local weather Audit, Oct 25, 2021
“There are lots of different methods and deceptions by BCC and Sheers in The Trick. Certainly, your complete premise of the narrative seems to be a “trick”, as I’ll focus on in a forthcoming publish. A program that, as Jon Stewart would possibly say, the aim of which was to trick you … into not realizing concerning the trick to cover the decline.”
World faces rising menace of ‘insufferable’ heatwaves
By Robin Simmonds with Sebastien Vuagnat in Demise Valley, with AFP bureaus
London (AFP) Oct 28, 2021
https://www.terradaily.com/experiences/World_faces_growing_threat_of_unbearable_heatwaves_999.html
If I may stroll that method…
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 27, 2021
SourceWatch on IER: Error Laden, Dated
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 26, 2021
Speaking Higher to the Public – Do a Ballot?
Cooked Up Consensus: Lynas et al “Ought to Moderately Be Labeled As Propaganda, Dangerous Science”…”Really Brazen”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 26, 2021
“Solely consensus: man has some affect.”
Majority Of Brits Unwilling To Give Up Planes, Vehicles And New Garments For Local weather
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 27, 2021
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda
UN options dinosaur in local weather message: ‘Save your species’
By Lexi Lonas, The Hill, Oct 28, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/578907-un-features-dinosaur-in-climate-message-save-your-species
[SEPP Comment: Abandon fossil fuels and embrace poverty!]
Increasing the Orthodoxy
Progressive Craziness Of The Day: SEC Obsesses Over “Local weather” Danger Disclosures
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 25, 2021
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2021-10-25-progressive-craziness-of-the-day-sec-obsesses-over-climate-risk-disclosures
Permafrost: a ticking carbon time bomb
By Johannes Ledel
Abisko, Sweden (AFP) Oct 25, 2021
https://www.spacedaily.com/experiences/Permafrost_a_ticking_carbon_time_bomb_999.html
Questioning European Inexperienced
Vaunted Energiewende is Failing
By Donn Dears, Energy For USA, Oct 29, 2021
“Why do now we have net-zero carbon polices when its apparent they may fail?”
CCC’s Web Zero Plans Rely On Dramatic Rise In Windy Days
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 24, 2021
“The Committee on Local weather Change have been caught dishonest:”
German Vitality Costs “Going By The Roof”, Provide Tightens As Leaders Botch Vitality Coverage
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 23, 2021
German Vitality Consultants Warn Of Deindustrialization: “Saving World’s Local weather From German Soil Is Illusory”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 22, 2021
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
The Inexperienced Uncooked Deal
By Sean Spicer, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 22, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/22/the_green_raw_deal_800215.html
[SEPP Comment: Review of a chapter in Sean Spicer’s new book, Radical Nation: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Dangerous Plan for America.]
Funding Points
Local weather Financing Plan Received’t Assist Local weather, however Will Push Nation to Totalitarianism: Consultants
By Petr Svab, The Epoch Occasions, Oct 26, 2021 [H/t Zero Hedge]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/climate-financing-plan-wont-help-climate-but-will-push-country-to-totalitarianism-experts_4068613.html?utm_source=companion&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge
We’ll spend $120 b as a result of a international unaccountable committee says so, however we gained’t spend 0.1% of that checking their science
By Jo Nova, He Weblog, Oct 27, 2021
The Political Video games Proceed
Chilling Free Speech and Silencing Dissent: Upcoming Congressional Listening to Demonstrates the Flawed Path on Local weather Change
By Anthony Caso, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 27, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/27/chilling_free_speech_and_silencing_dissent_upcoming_congressional_hearing_demonstrates_the_wrong_path_on_climate_change_800885.html
Democrats hope to carry Large Oil ‘accountable’
By Rachel Frazin and Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 27, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/578832-dems-hope-to-hold-big-oil-accountable
Maloney to subpoena prime oil corporations over local weather ‘disinformation marketing campaign’
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 28, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/579009-maloney-to-subpoena-top-oil-companies
[SEPP comment: According to House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), the oil companies must make up evidence that they contradicted the UN’s disinformation campaign?]
EPA and different Regulators on the March
6 in 10 blame oil corporations for local weather change: ballot
By Monique Beals, The Hill, Oct 26, 2021
https://thehill.com/coverage/energy-environment/578576-6-in-10-blame-oil-companies-for-climate-change-poll
Hyperlink to: Causes of Local weather Change
By Employees: EPA, Accessed Oct 28, 2021
https://www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/causes-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: Complete with the fake 2000 year-hockey-stick.]
Vitality Points – Non-US
Sixth Carbon Price range Does Not Add Up!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 27, 2021
Hyperlink to report: The Sixth Carbon Price range: The UK’s path to Web Zero
By Employees, Committee on Local weather Change, Dec 9, 2020
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/The-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-The-UKs-path-to-Net-Zero.pdf
“We’re sleep strolling right into a catastrophe, led by the CCC who appear oblivious of the very fact.”
Michael Shellenberger: ‘The principle reason for vitality shortages is the under-investment in oil & fuel exploration pushed by local weather activism’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 28, 2021
Vitality Points – Australia
Australia is the Biggest World Carbon Patsy– Is Scott Morrison the worst negotiator on Earth?
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 24, 2021
[SEPP Comment: With its heavy investment in “free wind” electricity prices in South Australia approach those in Denmark and Germany.]
Australian Comedy Hour: Web Zero Pledge Will Not Impose New Taxes or Kill Jobs
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 25, 2021
Vitality Points — US
It’s Time to Rethink Coverage Selections Driving Larger Winter Vitality Payments
By Todd Snitchler, Actual Clear Vitality, Oct 25, 2021
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/25/time_to_rethink_policy_choices_driving_higher_winter_energy_bills_800511.html
Assembly state offshore wind, renewable objectives requires as much as $3.2B in transmission, PJM says
By Ethan Howland, Utility Dive, Oct 21, 2021
https://www.utilitydive.com/information/state-offshore-renewable-goals-cost-transmission-pjm-planning/608643/
Hyperlink to report: Offshore Wind Transmission Examine: Section 1 Outcomes
By Employees, PJM Interconnection, Oct 19, 2021
https://www.pjm.com/-/media/library/reports-notices/special-reports/2021/20211019-offshore-wind-transmission-study-phase-1-results.ashx
From the article: “The transmission tasks and renewable era would decrease buyer prices by lowering the usage of dearer fossil-fueled energy vegetation and eradicating transmission bottlenecks on the grid whereas permitting for extra exports to the Midcontinent Impartial System Operator, PJM mentioned within the report launched Tuesday.”
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
Harvard Enterprise Overview: Photo voltaic, Wind, Battery Trash Wave Forward (adverse externalities from authorities subsidies)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 27, 2021
Hyperlink to: The Darkish Aspect of Photo voltaic Energy
By Atalay Atasu, Serasu Duran, and Luk N. Van Wassenhove, Harvard Enterprise Overview, June 18, 2021https://hbr.org/2021/06/the-dark-side-of-solar-power
[SEPP Comment: The Harvard Business Review authors apologize for explaining this inconvenience?]
Wind Energy Well being Results (newest from Scientific Studies)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 28, 2021
India Group Begins on $10 Billion Plan for Photo voltaic Energy
By Darrell Proctor, Energy Magazine, Oct 10, 2021
Examine: Volcanic Ash A Main Downside For PV Panels, (By no means Thoughts Mud, Snow, Clouds, Darkness, Weeds)
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 24, 2021
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Different
Pioneering 10-MW Baseload Hydrogen Energy Plant Breaks Floor in French Guiana
By Sonal Patel, Energy Magazine, Oct 7, 2021
“The plant will comprise a photo voltaic PV park, a 16-MW electrolysis platform, a long-term hydrogen storage unit, two 1.5-MW gasoline cell techniques, in addition to a short-term lithium-ion battery storage unit. When commissioned as deliberate in mid-2023, the plant will ship a “fastened and assured” energy capability of 10 MW between the hours of 8 a.m. and eight p.m. and three MW between 8 p.m. and eight a.m., it mentioned.”
[SEPP Comment: At a project cost of $200 million.]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
A number of German cities halt use of e-buses following collection of unresolved instances of fireplace
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Individuals Know That, Oct 24, 2021
California Dreaming
Is California Experiencing Extra “Climate Whiplash”?
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 26, 2021
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/is-california-experiencing-more-weather.html
“Throughout the dry years, the individuals forgot concerning the wealthy years, and when the moist years returned, they misplaced all reminiscence of the dry years. It was at all times that method. — John Steinbeck, East of Eden”
Different Information that Might Be of Curiosity
United Nations to Texas: Curb reliance on oil and fuel to stay affluent in period of local weather change
Texas leads the US in vitality manufacturing and carbon dioxide emissions. At an upcoming local weather change summit, nations might be requested to quickly minimize their emissions.
By David Schechter, KVUE ABC, Oct 23, 2021
https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/science/climate-change/united-nations-to-texas-curb-reliance-on-oil-and-gas-to-remain-prosperous-in-era-of-climate-change/287-a7622d6e-e4cc-43c6-9936-30835e6c23ca
Texas to United Nations: Pound Sand
A fairly direct Tweet from Texas Governor Greg Abbott, Through WUWT, by Charles Rotter, Oct 25, 2021
See hyperlink instantly above.
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Andreas Malm On the Environmental Motion and “Clever Sabotage”
Podcast with Dorothy Wickenden, The New Yorker, Sep 27, 2021
https://www.newyorker.com/podcast/political-scene/andreas-malm-on-the-environmental-movement-and-intelligent-sabotage
Actress Joanna Lumley Calls For Rationing and Social Local weather Credit
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 27, 2021
Oregon State: The Historical Greeks Triggered Local weather Change by Killing Perception in Dryads
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 24, 2021
From: Michael Paul Nelson, Professor of Environmental Ethics and Philosophy, Oregon State College and Kathleen Dean Moore, Distinguished Professor Emerita, Oregon State College
ARTICLES
1. Photo voltaic and Wind Pressure Poverty on Africa
Letting us use dependable vitality doesn’t imply a local weather catastrophe.
By Yoweri Ok. Museveni, WSJ, Oct. 24, 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/solar-wind-force-poverty-on-africa-climate-change-uganda-11635092219?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s
The president of Uganda writes [with slight edits]:
“Africa can’t sacrifice its future prosperity for Western local weather objectives. The continent ought to stability its vitality combine, not rush straight towards renewables—although that may seemingly frustrate a few of these gathering at subsequent week’s international local weather convention in Glasgow.
“My continent’s vitality decisions will dictate a lot of the local weather’s future. Conservative estimates undertaking that Africa’s inhabitants of 1.3 billion will double by 2050. Africans’ vitality consumption will seemingly surpass that of the European Union across the similar time.
“Figuring out this, many developed nations are pushing an accelerated transition to renewables on Africa. The Western aid-industrial complicated, composed of nongovernmental organizations and state improvement businesses, has poured cash into wind and photo voltaic tasks throughout the continent. This earns them reward within the U.S. and Europe however leaves many Africans with unreliable and costly electrical energy that will depend on diesel mills or batteries on overcast or nonetheless days. Turbines and the mining of lithium for batteries are each extremely polluting.
“This stands to forestall Africa’s makes an attempt to rise out of poverty, which require dependable vitality. African manufacturing will battle to draw funding and subsequently to create jobs with out constant vitality sources. Agriculture will endure if the continent can’t use pure fuel to create artificial fertilizer or to energy environment friendly freight transportation.
“A greater answer is for Africa to maneuver slowly towards a wide range of dependable inexperienced vitality sources. Wildlife-friendly mini hydro applied sciences ought to be part of the continent’s vitality combine. They permit for 24-hour-a-day vitality manufacturing and could be put in alongside minor rivers with out the necessity for backup vitality. Coal-fired energy stations could be transformed to burning biomass, and carbon seize can assist within the meantime. Nuclear energy can also be already being put to good use in South Africa, whereas Algeria, Ghana and Nigeria function analysis reactors with the intent of constructing full-scale nuclear services.
“All it will take time, that means Africa must use fossil fuels because it makes the transition. Pure fuel is a greener possibility that may assist the continent scale back emissions even because it grows, as developed nations have achieved themselves.
“Saying any of this meets with backlash from developed nations. As an alternative of dependable renewables or greener fossil fuels, assist cash and improvement investments go to pushing photo voltaic and wind, with all their accompanying drawbacks. And plenty of Western nations have put a blanket ban on public funding for a spread of fossil-fuel tasks overseas, making it tough for Africa to make the transition to cleaner non-renewables.
“Within the coming many years my continent can have a powerful affect on international warming. However it doesn’t now. Have been sub-Saharan Africa (minus South Africa) to triple its electrical energy consumption in a single day, powering the brand new utilization completely by fuel, it might add solely 0.6% to international carbon emissions.
“Africans have a proper to make use of dependable, low cost vitality, and doing so doesn’t forestall the event of the continent’s renewables. Forcing Africa down one route will hinder our struggle towards poverty.”
****************
2. Local weather Activists Blow Smoke on Wildfire Fears
The quantity of land burned has declined steadily since 1900, even with rising temperatures.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, Oct. 27, 2021
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-activists-blow-smoke-on-wildfire-fears-adaptation-land-11635367688?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
TWTW Abstract: The president of the Copenhagen Consensus and a visiting fellow on the Hoover Establishment writes:
“Add wildfires to the lengthy listing of pure disasters which might be overhyped in local weather protection. It scares adults and youngsters alike, as when Rep. Katie Porter’s (D., Calif.) 9-year-old daughter worries: ‘The Earth is on hearth and we’re all going to die quickly.’ This merely isn’t true.
“Within the early 1900s, about 4.2% of land world-wide burned yearly, as you may see on the close by graph. A century later, that had dropped nearly to three%. That decline has continued by the satellite tv for pc period, and 2021 is prone to finish with solely 2.5% of the globe having caught hearth, based mostly on information by Aug. 31.
“This information is completely noncontroversial. Even a report from the World Wildlife Fund—chillingly subtitled ‘a disaster raging uncontrolled?’—concedes halfway by that ‘the world of land burned globally has truly been steadily declining because it began to be recorded in 1900.’
“Human ingenuity will get the credit score: Individuals have moved from hearths to energy stations, transformed untamed land into protected farms, and created sufficient extra wealth that societies can more and more afford to defend our environment with hearth suppression and forest administration.
“Local weather research that predict considerably extra fires usually ignore this historical past. They mannequin solely temperature adjustments, excluding what individuals would possibly do in response. As this 12 months’s United Nations local weather report argued, hearth climate—situations conducive to wildfires—goes to change into extra frequent as temperatures proceed to extend. However this doesn’t imply individuals will sit idly by and let it occur.
“When fashions consider human adaptation, it seems that these will increase in hearth harm disappear. An April examine predicts that inhabitants progress and financial improvement will overwhelm the potential of worldwide warming to encourage fires. Local weather insurance policies may obtain a higher discount in burned land, however at the price of many trillions of {dollars}.
“A lot of the media protection of wildfires is equally ignorant of information. The Los Angeles Occasions’s total entrance web page screamed about ‘California’s Local weather Apocalypse’ final fall as wildfires burned by the state. However these fires look unremarkable in historic context. Earlier than 1800 wildfires on common burned between 4.5% and 12% of California every year, excess of the 4.2% of the state consumed by the ‘local weather apocalypse’ in 2020.
“Whereas the share of the U.S. burned by wildfires has risen because the Eighties, influenced partly by local weather change, that’s not the entire story. Fires within the U.S. in the present day burn lower than a fifth of the world that was scorched every year within the Nineteen Thirties, and an knowledgeable panel discovered that the current uptick is usually the results of poor forest administration.”
After examples of sensational press in Australia, Lomborg continues:
It’s true that extra individuals will most likely be threatened by fires sooner or later, however it’s because a part of the world’s rising inhabitants will settle the place wildfires are extra frequent. The variety of properties in high-fire-risk zones within the Western U.S. has elevated 13-fold over the previous 80 years and is about to extend additional by 2050. A 2016 Nature examine concludes that is true globally. ‘Opposite to frequent notion,’ the researchers write, ‘human publicity to wildfires will increase sooner or later primarily owing to projected inhabitants progress in areas with frequent wildfires, fairly than by a common improve in burned space.’
Serving to future wildfire victims has little to do with strict and costly local weather insurance policies, and the whole lot to do with easier, cheaper measures like higher forest administration and constructing codes. There’s no good motive to terrify youngsters with tales of apocalyptic firestorms.
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