IBHOF’s boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston looks for value on the world’s most important game of the weekend Shakur Stevenson vs Oscar Valdez and Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano.
Shakur Stevenson’s price is steadily rising and he is now 1/7 (-700) at Betfred to beat Oscar Valdez in Saturday’s clash with the undefeated lightweight champions in Las Vegas.
But while the odds have climbed into the stratosphere, I think Stevenson is the best fit. His slick southern angler style doesn’t seem to match the tough, tenacious but outspoken Valdez.
However, while I find it difficult to find a path to victory for Valdez, I don’t see Shakur completely dominating him. Valdez is a capable boxer and a good fighter, and I think he was somewhat sold out after his struggle with Robson Conceicao.
However, fighting well and actually winning are, of course, two different things.
Stevenson, 24, seems to hold all the aces. He looks big and strong at 130 pounds. Shakur is skilled and agile, with excellent punch prediction. And while Stevenson was disappointingly expected in some games, he appeared to have reached a new level when he stopped Jamel Herring in the 10th round of his final game.
Valdez, meanwhile, displayed grit as he fought through the pain of a broken jaw to defeat the larger, heavier Scott Quigg. He hit the box beautifully to snatch the title from Miguel Berchelt, surmounting the best performance of his career with a spectacular knockout in the 10th round. But Quigg and Berchelt were right in front of Valdez. Against Stevenson, Valdez will meet someone who is hard to hit and a skilled puncher.
If Valdez is going to deal with sadness, he will inevitably have to apply educated pressure, go to war with Stevenson and try to get him out of his strike and bring him down.
The point here is that Stevenson will count on the timing of Valdez’s sharp counter-attacking punches. Valdez will more than likely be able to get in the right hand at times and he will certainly be looking for his spot to land left hook, but he can see Stevenson always wary one step ahead.
Stevenson says he believes he can frustrate and even deter Valdez simply by repeatedly hitting him and causing him to fail. And for those looking for a value bet, Stevenson winning the gap with an overall price of 13/5 (+260) could make sense. After all, Valdez is 31 years old and he’s had some tough games. He also had a long amateur career, having boxed for Mexico in two Olympics. But the decisive goal at 5/8 (-160) must clearly be considered more than likely.
Valdez is a very tough game and it will take a lot of time to get him out of the fight. Even if Valdez is eliminated, he will never give in. It’s not the most attractive bet out there, but Stevenson decidedly seemed like the way to go.
There’s another big battle on the pond tonight, this one is a real women’s super fight at Madison Square Garden, with the sweetheart of Ireland Katie Taylor defend his lightweight title against the featherweight champion Amanda Serrano in a difficult contest to call.
The odds open on the pick, but money has shown for Serrano, and New York-Puerto Rico challenger is now a light 8/11 (-138) favorite at Betfred. However, a strong case can be made for both women.
Taylor will definitely be the bigger boxer in the ring on Saturday night. Serrano, however, has fought as a light welterweight and even junior in a remarkable career that has seen her rise and fall in the weight divisions.
I see Taylor, 35, as a super boxer from a textbook point of view. She has a solid technique, with excellent time and distance judgment. Serrano, 33, has a larger punch output. It can get down to Serrano’s volume compared to Taylor’s accuracy.
While Serrano has more than twice as many professional fights as the champion, Taylor may have more miles on the clock, bearing in mind her long amateur career. Taylor has competed in all the major amateur tournaments and, of course, won an Olympic gold medal at the London Olympics. And she’s been in a few fights as a pro – especially both with Delfine Persoon but also one of 10 rounds with Natasha Jonas. Those wars can be exhausting.
However, the thing about Taylor is that she knows how to win nip-and-tuck matches. She is very good at warming up with lightning punches to steal the ring. But Serrano was the puncher in the fight. Natasha Jonas was able to steady Taylor with the right hook from her Southpaw stance. Maybe Nampaw Serrano can do the same.
Each woman will be well-supported, with New York and Spain fans cheering for Serrano while a massive Ireland team will raise the roof every time Taylor scores.
I believe for Serrano to win, she’s going to have to pressure Taylor and make her uncomfortable in the first place. This is just round two minutes. Serrano must make every minute important. She has to let go and attack the body. If Serrano had stood back and let Taylor pick her up, she could have found herself hopelessly falling behind. But if Serrano can get off to a strong start, perhaps catching and hurting Taylor soon, she can build on her success.
Perhaps I am not alone in my struggle to choose a side in this contest. But as great as Taylor is, I think Serrano can win rounds with volume, intensity, and what I believe is a power advantage. The price did not get out of control to give Serrano a chance to win. I don’t mind Serrano by deciding 8/5 (+160) while a small stab at a draw (given at the overall price of 10/1) is not a bad idea.
Main image: Valdez (left) and Stevenson (right) meet at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, on Saturday night. Photo: Mikey Williams / Top Rank.
