IBHOF’s boxing and gambling expert Graham Houston seeks betting value in Jermell Charlo and Brian’s undisputed 154 lbs world championship rematch Castañoas well as the clash of Sergey Kovalev’s cruiser with Tervel Pulev.
After a thrilling 12-round draw last July, junior middleweight champions Jermell Charlo and Brian Carlos Castaño simply had to do it again. They met in a rematch on May 14 in Los Angeles, with Charlo defending the WBC belt while Castaño wound the WBA belt.
Open odds are basically picking them but the player has moved the Charlo line, this now sits at 4/9 (-225) at Betfred.
The last time the two met, Charlo was like a 1/3 (-300) favorite. The draw seems fair. Each winner six rounds by consensus of the judges.
The lines have been drawn. We know what we will get. Argentina’s Castaño delivers the pressure and pace of work from behind a tall guard. He’s a good puncher with a left or right hook and he’s very smart about letting go when he has opponent support on the rope. Charlo, from Houston, Texas, is a textbook boxer.
The venue for the rematch – the Los Angeles suburb of Carson – is fairly neutral although Spain fans will certainly support Castaño.
In the final fight, each hurt the other.
However, the most dramatic moment of the match came in the 10th inning, when Castaño with a left foot hook too high to the head sent Castaño staggered to his feet. One of the judges gave this round a 10-8 in favor of Charlo although Castaño stood firm.
Castaño is known for having great motivation, but it was Charlo who finished better, making it through the last three rounds on the judges’ cards.
These are the right fighters but I think Castaño fought the best fight he could fight in his first bout, while Charlo, I believe, has plenty of room for improvement and adjustment. than.
Last time, Charlo seemed to have missed a few rounds while he searched for time for Castaño to get his shots perfect. Had he thrown a little more, threw a few more punches at the crucial moments, Charlo could have won.
Charlo has the advantage of height and stature, and while both men have strength, I find Charlo the more explosive. He knows what to expect now and I feel that we will see Charlo let go a little more in the rematch. The fact that Charlo showed up so strongly in the later rounds of the first fight shows to me that he’s doing a better job of finding Castaño the longer the fight lasts.
I lean towards Charlo but I’m not sure if I’d feel comfortable setting the price at the current spread. Charlo is promising a KO win this time around. If you think he can get the job done within 12 scheduled rounds, you might be interested Charlo won the distance by 13/5 (+260). But these two fighting it at a distance seems more likely. Unfortunately, the odds for “Distance – Yes” are not so appealing at 4/9 (-275).
Charlo to win on the decision given with overall odds of 27/20 (+137). The price doesn’t work for me although Charlo’s decision seems more viable than the KO/TKO proposal. However, the Charlo odds have moved too far north for my liking and none of the suggested odds work for me.
So what else do we have? With a packed schedule of fights, it’s always a challenge to pick out valuable points but Tervel Pulev vs Sergey Kovalev was one of the more evenly priced matches of the weekend. “Krusher” Kovalev was the favorite, but Pulev’s money made it a costly choice. Betfred gives each man at 20/21 (-105), make your choice.
Kovalev is 39 years old and he is gaining from 175 to 200lbs for a 10-round cruiser. He looked fine at 196 ½ lbs on Friday but Pulev, though also 39 years old, is the fresher boxer and, of course, the bigger man. I think Pulev looks excellent at 197 ½lbs, his lightest since 2018.
Either person can win this. The venue for the Inglewood Forum favors no men even though Kovalev is the promotion’s home boxer. I like Pulev as an underdog but the odds are not so appealing right now. Kovalev has much more professional experience, but Pulev fights at an elite level as an amateur. Pulev has had a slow professional career but he seems motivated for this. It’s “buyer beware” no matter which boxer you like in the match but I’m a bit inclined towards Pulev.
Main image: Charlo (left) and Castaño (right) the battle for undisputed status in California on Saturday night. Photo: Stephanie Trapp / Showtime.
