Ukraine News: Turkey says an agreement has been reached to lift the ban on Ukrainian grain exports

Russia’s decision to restart the flow of natural gas through a key pipeline on Thursday provided a moment of relief for Germany, which uses the fuel to power industries. most important industries and heat half of their homes. But it’s unlikely to be more than that.

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has made it clear that he intends to use his country’s energy exports as a target, and even a weapon, to punish and divide European leaders – loosen or tighten the faucet because it suits him and his war on Ukraine.

He is relying on that uncertainty to impose heavy economic and political costs on European leaders. Those elected officials are under increasing pressure to lower energy prices and avoid gas rations that could force factories and government buildings to close and require residents to lower temperatures. in winter. Leaders in some countries, such as Spain and Greece, are arguing the European Union’s plan to ask every member state to cut gas use, arguing that they have been less dependent belongs to Russia much more than to Germany.

Many questions remain about the stability of gas supplies that have begun to flow again on the pipeline, Nord Stream 1, which connects Russia and Germany directly. It is clear, however, that Europe, and Germany in particular, may remain competitive for months on whether to have enough energy.

In the weeks leading up to a 10-day shutdown for planned maintenance that just ended, Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy monopoly, reduced pipeline traffic to 40% of capacity. Analysts have warned that such levels will not be enough to prevent an energy crisis next winter.

Siegfried Russwurm, president of the Federation of German Industries, said: “The resumption of gas supplies from Russia through Nord Stream 1 has no reason to give explicit information. “It remains to be seen whether the gas will actually flow in the long term and in the quantities agreed upon by the contract.”

He added, “Germany and Europe must not become a game to blackmail Russian politics.”

On Wednesday, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, who previously held senior positions in the German government, presented a proposal for European Union members reduce their gas consumption 15 percent to prepare for an uncertain and possibly unstable supply before winter.

Before Russian forces invaded Ukraine in late February, Germany received 55% of its natural gas from Russia. Few EU countries come close to that level of dependence – a reality that is beginning to disrupt European unity on Russia and energy policy.

Many Europeans thought that Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, was a wealthy neighbor and was not always eager to help weaker countries. That feature was recently highlighted by its attitude towards helping Greece, Spain and other countries that used the euro when they were in financial trouble about a decade ago.

Now, some of those countries are signaling that they are unwilling to make their businesses and people suffer more when energy prices are soaring to help bail Germany out of its dependence on Russia.

Spain’s Energy Minister, Teresa Ribera, said on Thursday that her country would encourage but not require its citizens to cut gas use. “Unlike other countries, we Spaniards have not lived beyond our means from an energy standpoint,” she said. El Pais newspaper, repeating the description some German ministers used during the eurozone crisis.

The Greek government has also pushed back on the European Union’s call for a 15% cut in gas use. Although Greece depends on Russia to meet 40% of its gas needs, its supply has not been cut.

Such divisiveness is central to Putin’s strategy to cut off gas supplies through pipelines across Ukraine and Poland while limiting the amount of natural gas flowing under the Baltic Sea via the Nord Stream pipeline. 1 is 760 miles long.

“Europe’s entire energy system is going through a crisis, and even if Nord Stream 1 is restarted today, the region is still in a tough spot,” the research firm said. Research Rystad Energy wrote in a market note on Thursday.

Mr. Putin appears to be finding uncertainty about how long gas will continue to flow to Germany in an attempt to maximize his leverage for as long as possible.

Hours before the gas flow returns on Thursday, Gazprom said in a statement that they have yet to receive documentation from Siemens about a turbine that was sent to Canada for repair. The company said the paperwork was required for the part to be returned, adding that the engine, and others like it, had a “direct impact on the operational safety of the Nord pipeline”. Stream”.

Robert Habeck, Economy Minister and Deputy Chancellor of Germany, rejected Gazprom’s claims earlier on the same day that the resumption of gas through the pipeline was proof that the Russian company was a “guarantor” of security. energy security in Europe.

“The opposite is the case,” said Habeck. “It is proving to be an element of uncertainty.”

The German government has activate the second of the three steps of its gas emergency plan. Among them are the swapping of gas-fired thermal power plants with coal-fired plants, which emit more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than gas. The third and final step will allow the government to allocate supplies.

On Thursday, Mr Habeck announced additional measures aimed at increasing the country’s gas reserves, such as conservation incentives including more ambitious targets for storage and activation facilities. to power plants that burn lignite – the dirtiest fossil fuel.

He said the government is also considering strict limits on how people can use gas. For example, the government could ban people from heating private swimming pools with gas. When pressed about how such measures would be implemented, Mr. Habeck proposed a parallel approach to banning private meetings at first. coronavirus lockdown pandemic, rarely enforced – unless neighbors alert the authorities.

“I don’t think the police will visit every homeowner. That’s not our intention and it’s not the country I want to live in,” Habeck said. “But if it turns out that someone doesn’t go with it, then we’ll definitely look into that.”

Will the Germans, the Europeans most willing to abide by the public health rules in 2020 when the pandemic begins to rise only a few months later, are willing to sacrifice their comfort in solidarity? with Ukraine or not has not yet been put to the test.

The German government is facing what Janis Kluge, a Russia analyst at the German Institute for International and Security in Berlin, calls “a very delicate balance” in how it communicates with the public.

“On the one hand, they have to mobilize people to save energy, save gas, and tell people that there can be an energy emergency in the winter, and at the same time avoid this becoming a criticism. on sanctions policy and support for Ukraine,” he said.

“This is exactly what Putin wants to achieve,” Kluge added. “That when we make our next decision about arms deliveries to Ukraine, that somewhere in our heads, there is this thought, well, what will this do to our gas deliveries? “

Berlin is scrambling to buy more gas from the Netherlands, Norway and the United States. The government has set aside 2.94 billion euros, about $3 billion, to lease four floating berths in the hope that they will be operational by mid-winter to help stave off a potentially recessionary crisis.

For years, Germany has ignored warnings from its neighbors and allies that it is making itself vulnerable by becoming increasingly dependent on Russia for its energy needs.

“Germany will become completely dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course,” President Donald J. Trump said at the United Nations in 2018.

In response, the German delegation, which included Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, laughed.