Africa experts and humanitarian organizations say that Moscow’s withdrawal from an agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea could exacerbate the hunger crisis in parts of Africa. but the immediate impact on Ukraine is likely to be less severe, Africa experts and humanitarian organizations say.
Western officials accused Russia of “weaponizing” food with their decision on Saturday to press pause on grain trademediated by the United Nations and Turkey and is a rare case of wartime coordination to reduce global food prices and combat hunger.
Regional experts and commodity market analysts on Sunday said that in the short term, Russia’s decision will cause global grain prices to rise and especially hurt those countries whose governments lack the means subsidies for basic foods.
Tens of millions of people across Africa are facing severe food shortages, with most of the world’s 19 “hunger hotspots” located on the continent. Some in the Horn of Africa, where civil wars, extreme climates and economic disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic have occurred, there have been severe food shortages.
Murithi Mutiga, Africa program director at International Crisis, said the suspension of the grain deal could “cause significant trouble not only for the poorest countries in Africa but also for larger nations. where the cost of living has become a strong political issue.” Think tank group. He singled out South Africa, Ghana and Kenya as countries where governments were under political pressure to address food price spikes even before Russia announced its decision.
Some grain exported from Ukraine under shipping arrangements has been shipped to countries such as Ethiopia, where a two-year civil war has left an estimated 5.2 million people facing severe starvation. . But those shipments are not enough to meet demand, Mr. Mutiga said.
Mr said: “You were hoping for a much more rushed delivery state instead of canceling the deal. Mutiga. “The African continent is paying a very heavy price.”
The International Rescue Committee, a nonprofit humanitarian organization, warned that Russia’s suspension of the deal would have “catastrophic consequences” – especially for countries like Somalia, which are on the brink area of famine.
“Further disruption of vital grain exports could push Somalia over the edge,” it said in a statement.
Abdirahman Abdishakur, the president’s special envoy for drought response in Somalia, said his country depends on Ukraine for 70% of its grain imports.
“With local food production significantly reduced by a two-year drought, disruptions to global supply chains have become severe,” he said. “I worry about what continued disruptions in grain shipments from Ukraine will mean for the seven million people in Somalia who are already struggling to access enough food.”
The United Nations and Turkey, both of whom helped broker the initial deal, worked to convince Russia continues to participate.
When signed in July, the agreement was seen as a way not only to alleviate the global food crisis but also to ease the burden on Ukraine’s battered economy.
Mike Lee, director of Green Square Agro Consulting, which works in the Black Sea region, says that the situation is less urgent now than it was in February, when Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports drove grain prices down. global spike, as the parameters of the problem are now better understood.
He described the short-term impact on Ukraine of Russia’s suspension as “inconvenient but not catastrophic.” That’s because the country is at a less vulnerable point in the crop cycle and better prepared to stockpile its grain, partly due to aid since the war began, he said. . However, a prolonged pause in the agreement will make it harder for farmers to export, so they are refusing cash to pay off debt and invest in new crops, Mr. Lee added.
Carly Olson contribution report.
