Russian airstrikes on civilian targets across Ukraine this week immediately prompted Kyiv’s allies to pledge to send more weapons and ammunition. The America promised more anti-aircraft missile systems, and Germany says it will send similar defenses “in the next few days.” The NATO head declares that support for Ukraine’s war against Russia will continue “as long as necessary.”
But for all the guarantees, there is still a problem. Kyiv also needs more Russian-style weapons that the Ukrainian military is trained to use, and the global supply for them is running out.
To find those weapons, the United States and other allies scoured the world, looking for willing suppliers in a hunt that has revealed both the promise and pitfalls of unlocking weapons stockpiles. Standard Russian and Soviet-style gas for Ukrainian use.
There has been some success. Finland, which has long balanced the sensitivities of neighboring Russia, is sending Ukraine a number of Soviet-style weapons, including ammunition and guns compatible with AK-47 assault rifles. South Korea is providing ballistics vests, helmets, medical equipment and other defense support.
Others like Cambodiathe Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Mexico, Colombia and Peru received a recent visit from Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a tough, behind-the-scenes diplomatic campaign to countries that have shown support for Ukraine but remain reluctant to provide deadly aid.
And then there’s Cyprus. It gave a special window into the difficulties of meeting the urgent need for weapons that the Ukrainian army was burning faster than could be supplied as they pushed back large swaths of territory and push the Russians out.
So far this month, Cyprus has been under a 35-year US arms embargo, imposed to defuse tensions after a conflict left the island bitterly divided between a post-Greek government. and partly still controlled by Turkey, both NATO members.
At that time, Cyprus turned to the Soviet Union and then Russia for weapons and military equipment. Today’s stockpile of at least 10 Tor and Buk missile systems that can shoot down Russian planes, drones, and cruise missiles could be profitable for the Ukrainian military engaged in the war.
But the Cypriot government has made it clear that it wants new and better replacements, something that could offend Turkey and spark an arms race in the still-unresolved conflict. Even so, on October 1, the Biden administration Officially lifting the embargoallowing Cyprus to buy American weapons.
US officials say the move has been going on for several years and is broadly intended to pull Cyprus away from Russian influence. However, a US official, who declined to be named, to describe the delicate foreign policy, said Cyprus was now “a potential option” as a supplier to Ukraine.
Government spokesman Marios Pelekanos said: “Cyprus will be willing to consider the transfer of certain weapons and ammunition to Ukraine if they are” replaced by another military apparatus of comparable strength and capability. “.
He cited numerous meetings with US officials in recent months in which “we have also discussed this possibility.”
Already, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has pledged to strengthen his army in northern Cyprus with additional weapons when the US embargo was lifted.
State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Tuesday that “we welcome additional contributions to provide Ukraine with the continued support it needs to defend itself” but would not discuss it. diplomatic dialogues with specific countries, including Cyprus.
On Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called on allies to speed up air defense systems to his country as “the number one priority right now”. Already have, NATO countries have pledge to Ukraine billions of dollars in sophisticated Western weapons – including about 17 billion dollars from the United States.
Russia is responding by buying artillery from North Korea and, notably, Military drones from Iran, has hit cities in southern Ukraine and last week hit a town about 50 miles from Kyiv. Dozens of countries have sought to remain neutral, including China and India. Russia’s Two Largest Arms Customers but on monday new calls for de-escalation after Moscow’s missile attack.
The countries of Eastern Europe, many of which were once Soviet satellites but are now NATO members, have been eager to send standard Russian equipment to Ukraine since February: tanks and artillery shells from the Czech Republic, grenades from Estonia, helicopters from Latvia and Slovakia, amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and thousands of Grad 122 mm rockets from Poland.
As of Tuesday, the latest data available, Poland is the fourth largest contributor of military aid to Ukraine, which follows the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union, according to a database of public engagements compiled by the Germany-based Kiel Institute. But Poland, like other Eastern European countries, cannot stockpile its remaining Soviet-style weapons without recklessly defending and wants to see other countries move forward, a Polish defense official said. .
Talk between allies to share parts, ammunition and other equipment, and push defense manufacturers to ramp up production continues, including this week’s high-level meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels. But arms deals can take months, if not years, to complete.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, said on Tuesday that defense ministers would be asked to decide how best to quickly replenish member states’ stockpiles while providing Ukraine with a range of weapons – not only air defense systems, he said, but various artillery pieces, armored tanks and ammunition.
“They need almost everything, and allies are providing unprecedented support,” Stoltenberg said in Brussels.
One feasible blueprint to help Ukraine acquire more weapons was provided in July by the Organization for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think-tank, which identified 23 non-NATO countries with total stockpiles of more than 6,300 standard post-Soviet and Russian weapons systems and ammunition, and condemned Mr. Putin’s invasion.
Among potential suppliers, Cyprus stands out.
With Russian-made missile launchers, surface-to-air missiles, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles, Cyprus possesses “exactly the systems that Ukraine needs to support its counter-attack forces and to hold the territory they recaptured – and more broadly, Bradley Bowman, a former US Army officer and senior military expert at FDD who co-authored the analysis, said in order to defeat Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.” .
Before the embargo was lifted, Mr. Bowman noted, “despite discussions, we could never seriously consider substituting these Russian-origin weapons, that Cyprus said. can be delivered to Ukraine, by American systems.”
“But now we can,” Mr. Bowman said. He added, “We need to look at every possible rock.”
Cypriot officials hailed the lifting of the embargo as an important step towards strengthening ties with NATO and bolstering security in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
However, according to them, that does not mean that Nicosia is ready to send Russian weapons to Ukraine.
Mr. Pelekanos said: “Due to the serious security threats posed on a daily basis by the Turkish occupation forces, the current security architecture of Cyprus should be kept intact.
Acknowledging Nicosia’s “legitimate security concerns”, Mr Bowman said lifting the arms embargo would also allow other Western nations to quickly move US-made weapons to Cyprus without requires pre-approval from Washington. That, he said, could supplement Cyprus’ arsenal with newer, NATO-compatible systems if the country transfers post-Soviet weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
At that point, Cyprus may be ready to help – even if it remains unclear who might be willing to pull from their own arsenal to fill Nicosia.
Ultimately, it is assumed that Cyprus will phase out its current weapons with NATO-compatible systems, withdrawing from Russia and manufacturers in other rogue countries.
However, defense contractors in the US and Europe are struggling to keep up with demand for weapons production – a process that can take years.
Meanwhile, the US official said that Ukrainian forces need weapons “now, more than ever”.
