Demand for iron ore in China may have picked up earlier this month, but Swiss bank UBS said it was a “short-term” lift that will soon collapse. The investment bank said it believed earlier demand was partly driven by resupply ahead of the week-long national holiday in China, which begins October 1, when industrial activity is expected to decrease. China is also likely to implement its “Blue Sky” policy, a pollution reduction program, from mid-October ahead of a meeting of Chinese Communist Party officials in Beijing. That means thousands of industrial facilities and chemical plants will be temporarily closed to improve air quality in the area, further reducing demand. That comes at a time when the price of iron ore, mainly used by steelmakers, has dropped in the wake of China’s property crisis. A UBS report on September 27 said that global iron ore demand has weakened as output of pig iron, an intermediate in steel production, fell 7% compared with August last year. Miners exposed to this commodity may be affected by the impending shift in demand. Here’s what’s available to the big names in the industry, according to the bank: Rio Tinto UBS predicts that London-listed mining giant Rio Tinto is on track to ship iron ore at a low relative to its direction. their previous lead. UBS says Rio Tinto’s exports from Western Australia are likely to drop 1% in the third quarter of this year compared to 2021. Since more than 60% of the company’s revenue comes from merchandise, according to the 2021 results, UBS says know iron ore prices are the main driver of stocks. Although its stock has fallen more than 20% since its recent peak, UBS says there are further risks to this drop. The investment bank has a price target of £43 ($46) a share for Rio, down 11.7% from current levels. Anglo American Anglo American sales from its South African mine are expected to drop 9% in the three months to September, according to research by the Swiss bank. Iron ore sales account for two-fifths of revenue per filing in 2021, leaving the company reliant on the commodity’s good performance. UBS has tagged Anglo American with a “sell” rating and price target of £26 ($28.3) per share. That level will be 5% lower than the current level. Who is the winner? Analysts expect Australian miners BHP and Fortescue Metals to see year-on-year growth in iron ore shipments from their largest mines, 2% and 4% respectively. But because iron ore accounts for more than half of BHP’s revenue, and Fortescue Metals is a single commodity miner, its fortunes are closely tied to the commodity’s price trajectory, the investment bank said. UBS said it is “cautious” when it comes to BHP as it expects commodity prices to fall over the next year or two, putting pressure on cash flow and profits as capital expenditures increase. “Cost control will become increasingly important for FMG if iron ore prices return as expected,” UBS said, referring to Fortescue Metals Group. Shares in BHP are currently trading at 7.5% above a target price of AU$35.50 (AU$23) and shares of Fortescue Metals Group are 6.2% above target. price AU$15.80 (AU$10.2).