Tips and Trends for 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile, Which Has Produced Three Massive Upsets in Last 10 Years

Yr in and 12 months out, my favourite race within the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the FanDuel Mile Presented by PDJF. One-mile races on the grass are, for my part, the very best races within the sport of Thoroughbred racing for betting and pure enjoyment.

The Mile is a distance and floor that pulls sprinters stretching out, true milers, and extra stamina-oriented racehorses chopping again in distance and infrequently seeing a very totally different race form.

These one-mile grass races are a real check of potential and sophistication, and over time the Breeders’ Cup Mile has usually produced a winner virtually as notable, if no more so, than the Basic victor.

Mile winners like Goldikova, Wise Dan, and Tepin introduced sufficient star energy to headline their very own racecard and shined on the brightest stage. Different occasions, particularly within the final decade, the race has produced a surprising upset.

The 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile, set for Nov. 6 at Del Mar, figures to comply with swimsuit as a terrific race. It usually attracts an distinctive discipline and this 12 months’s occasion ought to boast a depth of high quality runners that equals and/or exceeds virtually the entire races on the World Championships.

There are some important tendencies to contemplate when searching for a winner, so let’s dig into the final 20 years of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (2001-2020) and construct the profile of a winner.

Potential Cash-Making Race

The Mile traditionally has the sixth-highest common payout ($21.61) for a $2 win wager from the 14 World Championships races, however simply within the final 10 years it has produced two of the four biggest upsets in the history of the World Championships in addition to a 3rd upset that paid $62 on a $2 win ticket. Positive, favorites win this race often, but it surely’s normally fairly apparent standouts that accomplish that – three-time Mile winner Goldikova and two-time winner Smart Dan account for 5 of the six successful favorites during the last 20 editions.

• The Mile has produced seven winners at double-digit odds during the last 20 editions: 12.40-1 Vacationer in 2016; Singletary at 16.50-1 odds in 2004; Miesque’s Approval at 24.30-1 in 2006; Domedriver at 26-1 in 2002; Karakontie at 30-1 in 2014; Court docket Imaginative and prescient at 64.80-1 odds in 2011; and Order of Australia at 73.20-1 odds final 12 months was the largest longshot within the race’s historical past.
• Order of Australia, who drew into the 2020 Mile off the also-eligible listing, charges because the second-biggest longshot within the historical past of the Breeders’ Cup, trailing solely 1993 Basic victor Arcangues who was despatched off at a outstanding 133.60-1 odds.
• Twenty-five p.c of the final 20 editions of this race produced a return of $50 or extra for a $2 win ticket and there have been three winners at $62 or extra simply within the final 10 years!
• The median odds of the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner from 2001 via 2020 was 5.45-1 with the typical ballooning to 14.78-1 due to the 5 $50 winners.
• Of the aforementioned six favorites to win the Mile from 2001 via 2020, Goldikova (2008, 2009, 2010) and Smart Dan (2012, 2013) accounted for 5 of these chalk winners with the opposite being World Approval at 2.70-1 in 2017.
• Moreover, there have been six Mile winners from 2001 to 2020 that fell within the vary between 7-2 and 6-1 odds, so 12 of the 20 had been 6-1 or much less. It’s not precisely a parade of upsets.

Inform Me Extra Concerning the Longshots!

Getting into final 12 months’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, I believed I had recognized a fairly clear profile for a Breeders’ Cup Mile longshot winner. I all the time preserve a watch out for closers with confirmed class who is perhaps popping out of ultimate prep races which can be higher than they appear on paper. Order of Australia shook up issues a bit, however I nonetheless consider that sort of runner is what handicappers ought to be searching for in previous performances.

• Digging deeper into the double-digit longshot winners, solely Domedriver in 2002 entered the race off a win, taking the Group 2 Prix de la Rochelle by head in France.
• The opposite six had been all third or worse of their remaining prep race with 4 of them unplaced whereas crushed by open lengths. After all, two of the 4 had been established Grade/Group 1 winners.
• It’s price taking a more in-depth have a look at the “different” European invaders, that means not those who’re among the many favorites, as a result of usually the connections of those runners consider they’ve good cause to ship throughout the Atlantic. Whereas European shippers who’re well-regarded can and do run effectively, one other longshot shipper, Karakontie in 2014, was a Basic winner in France who struggled when stretching out in distance however regained his elite kind when chopping again to a mile and racing on agency turf.
• From the group of seven double-digit winners, 4 profiled as closers, Vacationer was a stalker/nearer, and Singletary and Order of Australia profiled as stalkers. None was higher than fourth after the opening half-mile and 5 of the seven had been seventh or worse after the opening quarter-mile.
• Whereas Order of Australia raced nearer to the tempo than many of the others and is the one winner within the final 20 years with out not less than one Grade/Group 2 win coming into the Mile, he did come from the highly effective barn of elite European coach Aidan O’Brien. Order of Australia had posted back-to-back wins – one on an all-weather observe and the opposite at 1 ½ miles on the grass – earlier than a disastrous ninth-place end, crushed by 47 ¾ lengths in a Group 3 race on turf rated as tender.
• In contrast to the opposite longshot winners on this race, Order of Australia didn’t appear to be your typical miler. His common distance in 5 begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup in 2020 with 10.74 furlongs or between 1 5/16 miles and 1 3/8 miles.
• The opposite six on common raced at rather less than 8.2 furlongs of their 29 begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup Mile within the 12 months that they gained.
• As a bunch, the upset winners mixed to prevail in solely 12 of 35 begins earlier than the Breeders’ Cup within the 12 months that they gained the Mile, so be a bit extra forgiving if you’re getting 15-1 or larger odds and assume a horse has a good probability to be within the combine in deep stretch.
• Normally, you might be searching for established milers coming from off the tempo with confirmed class – in Order of Australia’s case not less than the power string collectively just a few wins – and a few cause for upside like visitors hassle or hostile situations of their earlier begin.

Steer Away from Pace

Tactical pace is an extremely useful asset in dust racing, however the very best grass horses usually have an explosive late flip of foot and full the ultimate quarter-mile in a considerably sooner time than they ran every other section of the race. The Breeders’ Cup Mile has tilted closely towards stalker/nearer varieties over time and particularly within the final 20 editions of this race.

• The Mile has not been gained by a pacesetter or a horse that profiled as a pacesetter within the final 20 editions. In actual fact, no runner who was in entrance after the opening quarter-mile or half-mile has gained the race throughout this 20-race pattern.
• Seven of the final 20 winners had been tenth or worse after the primary quarter-mile, and 12 of the final 20 winners had been sixth or worse after the primary half-mile.
• World Approval, winner of the lone earlier version at Del Mar in 2017, entered the Mile as a press-the-pace sort runner; the opposite 19 winners included three who profiled as press the tempo/stalkers and 16 who profiled as both stalkers, stalker/closers, or closers. Six winners profiled as closers.
• Mile winners from 2001 via 2020 had been, on common seventh (7.2 to be actual) after the opening quarter-mile and between 5 ½ and 5 ¾ lengths again. The median for the opening quarter is in seventh/eighth (7.5) place and between 5 ½ and 5 ¾ lengths off the tempo.
• Equally, after the primary half-mile the typical winner was seventh (6.9) and only a tick underneath 5 lengths (4.9125) again with a median of sixth/seventh (6.5) and between 4 ½ lengths and 4 ¾ lengths off the tempo.
• I’ve talked about this in earlier editions of the weblog, however explosive flip of foot appears to be the frequent attribute among the many winners. Word the typical winner improved to barely a couple of size (1.1) again in early stretch with a median of second/third, one size behind the chief.

Class is Key

In case you are trying via the previous performances for Breeders’ Cup Mile runners searching for a win candidate, issue confirmed class terribly extremely. Nineteen of the final 20 winners of the race had not less than one victory on the Grade/Group 2 stage or above on their résumés earlier than successful the Mile.

• 13 of the final 20 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners had not less than one Grade/Group 1 win to their credit score coming into the race and 6 of the opposite seven had been not less than Grade/Group 2 stakes winners. The one exception was Order of Australia final 12 months who earned his first stakes win final 12 months within the Mile.
• Twelve of the final 14 Mile winners had been Grade/Group 1 winners coming into the race, however two of the final three weren’t: Order of Australia in 2020 and Professional Eye in 2018, with the latter a Group 2 winner in Europe.
• Whereas the previous 20 editions of the Mile point out confirmed class is a should, a victory within the remaining prep race has been lower than a 50/50 proposition as solely 9 of the final 20 winners entered the race off a victory.
• In actual fact, 4 of the Mile winners in the timeframe entered the race off an unplaced end and eight had been third or worse of their remaining prep.
• Seven runners entered the Mile off a Grade/Group 1 win and two others entered off a Grade/Group 2 victory.

Notes and Nuggets

Beneath are just a few different information factors that appeared attention-grabbing and, maybe, insightful when evaluating this 12 months’s Mile contenders, so earlier than we bounce to analyzing this 12 months’s discipline we now have some extra enjoyable information in regards to the final 20 editions of the race.

• Three-year-olds have gained 25% of the final 20 editions of the race: Six Perfections in 2003, Goldikova in 2008, Karakontie in 2014, Professional Eye in 2018, and Order of Australia in 2020. All 5 shipped over from Europe, so give European 3-year-olds a more in-depth look.
• Likewise, females have carried out fairly effectively within the Mile, successful six occasions within the final 20 years and 10 occasions general – together with eight European shippers – because the first version in 1984.
• Ten of the final 20 Mile winners had been bred outdoors of the U.S.
• The race is usually gained by true milers fairly than sprinters stretching out or longer-distance runners chopping again as the typical race for the final 20 winners was 8.31 furlongs (eight furlongs in a mile) with a median of 8.25.
• Ten of the final 20 editions of the Mile had been determined by lower than one size with the typical margin of victory 1.125 lengths (between a size and 1 ¼ lengths) and the median 0.875 lengths (between three-quarters of a size and a size).
• The typical successful Equibase Pace Determine was 120.25 with a median of 120.5.
• Seven of the final 20 Mile winners got here out of a remaining prep race in France, six prepped in Kentucky, three extra raced at Woodbine, two raced at Santa Anita Park, and one every raced at Belmont Park in New York and in Eire.

Evaluating the 2021 Mile Entrants

Charlie Appleby’s Space Blues was made the 3-1 favourite for this race and he’s a confirmed Group 1 winner with an enormous win probability, however I don’t view him as on the extent of Goldikova and Smart Dan and even World Approval given how good he had change into coming into the 2017 Mile. House Blues has spent nearly all of his profession sprinting, and runners stretching out from sprints haven’t fared effectively traditionally within the Mile, which favors devoted milers. At 3-1, I’ll look elsewhere.

Likewise, Mo Forza is superb proper now, however the 5-1 odds on the morning-line don’t provide a ton of enchantment. Might he win? Completely … he’s reeled off wins in 4 straight going again to 2020 and from a speed-figure perspective they’re the 4 finest races of his profession. The 5-year-old by Uncle Mo has three wins and two seconds in six begins at Del Mar, so sure, he’s a win candidate and doubtless will run effectively, however there are others I desire at extra interesting odds.

Let’s begin with House Blues’s 3-year-old stablemate Master of The Seas (12-1). A Group 2 winner as a 2-year-old, Grasp of the Seas ran second by a nostril within the QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas at this one-mile journey and has fared effectively on firmer floor. Others would possibly have a look at his seventh-place end most just lately within the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and downgrade his probabilities off that race, however that got here on good to tender turf and Appleby has been a maestro in 2021 with regards to deciding which horses to ship to america with six winners, two seconds, and one third from 13 starters in North American stakes this 12 months, together with 5 Grade 1 wins. Each Appleby runners, House Blues and Grasp of The Seas, ought to run effectively however I don’t assume there’s a enormous hole between the 2 so I’ll take 12-1 over 3-1 each time.

One longshot I believe might mild up the toteboard is Japanese invader Vin de Garde (20-1), a 5-year-old by Deep Impression who’s a Group 2 winner and completed second in March within the $4 million Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World. He enters off a disappointing eighth-place end in a Japanese Group 2 race, however that was his first begin in 6 ½ months and I’ve little question he wanted the race from a conditioning perspective. He’s 20-1 on the morning line and I believe he’s a win candidate.

U.S.-based Got Stormy might outrun her 10-1 morning-line odds, though I’d like 12-1 or larger to play her to win. She ran second within the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2019 and final 12 months ran sixth within the Turf Dash. She confirmed a flash of her elite kind when defeating males in August at Saratoga Race Course within the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap and is confirmed on the elite stage. Earlier than that race there have been issues that she had misplaced a step and others is perhaps turned off by her current sixth-place end in a turf dash stakes at Kentucky Downs, however she all the time appears to run effectively in Southern California and she or he’s a critical participant if she brings her “A” sport.

I’m intrigued by Mother Earth, a 3-year-old filly transport over for Aidan O’Brien, who pulled off the upset final 12 months with Order of Australia. Mom Earth, who opened her season with a win within the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas, gained’t be wherever close to that sort of longshot – she’s 8-1 on the morning-line – however O’Brien has 13 wins, 21 seconds, and 13 thirds from 156 profession Breeders’ Cup starters, so he is aware of which horses in his secure will probably deal with the journey and agency turf at Del Mar.