After publishing the story in Guardians via Damian Carrington last week, titled, “The world is on the brink of five ‘catastrophic’ climate times, study finds“Many corporate media have picked up on this theme and run their own stories. Based on a single study, titled “Global warming in excess of 1.5°C could cause multiple climate constraints” Guardians and many other news outlets wrote stories that considered the research’s speculative claims to be proven, although they could not agree on a cut-off score: Guardians year said, BBC say sixand Grist speak seven. CBS Newsmistakes on the conservative side, say four.
Claims that the earth faces a climate moment beyond the time of disaster are not new, and current claims are less likely to be true or supported by evidence than others. previously stated. No measurable data or trends provide solid scientific evidence that the earth is heading towards an apocalyptic climate tipping point, or even that such tipping points exist.
research description, Grist write:
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost may have passed the point of irreversible change
The climate crisis has pushed the world to the brink of many “catastrophic” times, according to a major study.
It shows five dangerous tipping points may have been adopted due to the anthropogenic 1.1C global temperature so far.
These include the collapse of the ice cap in Greenlandeventually creating a massive sea level rise, the collapse of a mains current in the North Atlantic, interrupting the rain on which billions of people depend for food, and suddenly melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
At 1.5 degrees Celsius, the current minimum expected increase, four out of five cut-off points turns from likely to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1.5C, there can be an additional five cut-off points, including changes to the vast forests of the north and the loss of almost all the glaciers on the mountain.
In case you are not familiar with what a climate tipping point is, the theory behind a climate tipping point is described at Climate Summary: Cut-off point – Heats up to 1.5 degrees C
In fact, in the study cited by the media, the researchers used computer modeling to calculate 16 tipping points, of which the last six require a global temperature increase of at least 2°. C to happen. According to the scientists’ computer model estimates, the cut-off points will be valid over time periods varying from a few years to centuries.
Note the word “maybe” in the title of the original article and the uncertainty about the timeline. In other words, the scientists conjectured. And, importantly, conjecture based on computer models is known to be in error, not real-world measurement evidence.
We’ve been warned about climate extremes in the past, so much so that they’ve set an impressive record of inactivity.
For example. Google search shows up well over a hundred, here are just a few of them:
“The tipping point of global warming closed?” – ClimateArk.com, January 27, 2004
“Hot spot'” – GuardiansAugust 11, 2005
“Earth at Coming Point: Global Warming is Warming” – TimeMarch 26, 2006
Scientist said “Global warming ‘global warming’ – National Geography.com, December 14, 2007
“Twenty Years Later: Near Points on Global Warming” – Huffington Post, June 23, 2008
“Global Warming: Those Limits Are Closer Than You Think” —Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2009
“Hansen and Sato must-read: We are at a climate tipping point that, once crossed, will allow for multi-meter sea level rise this century” – ThinkProgress.org, January 20 2011
“Earth: Have we reached the environmental tipping point?” – BBC, June 15, 2012
“Despite continuing to release [sic] 90 million tons of global warming pollution every day into the atmosphere, as if it were a sewer, we are now seeing the approach of a global political moment. ”—Al Gore, interview with Washington Post, August 21, 2013
There always seems to be a climate anomaly in our future, and they never seem to happen. Every year, we are treated to a new batch of dire predictions, with posts about when they will happen, always somewhere in the future, but never certain.
In June 2011, University of East Anglia (UEA) see the incline behind every rock and tree, suggesting that an “early warning system” be created. You can see a list of them in the image below. Most of them are like the ones making headlines today and are cited by new research.
But, in 2022, 11 years later, no disaster happened, although no “early warning system” was created. Perhaps the reason is that other peer-reviewed science shows that tipping points did not occur in Earth’s distant past in response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
An important paleontological study from University of Washington say tipping point not likely to happen from an increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
The Press Release Because researchtitled “The accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unlikely to cause sudden climate change“Say this:
There have been instances in Earth’s history when the average temperature has changed rapidly, by as much as 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) over a few decades, and some have speculated the same could happen. again when the atmosphere becomes overloaded with carbon dioxide.
The new study supports evidence from multiple recent studies that the abrupt climate change appears to be the result of changes in ocean circulation uniquely associated with ice ages.
But more importantly, the new research released by the media this past week is based on claims of a future disaster of a 1.5°C rise in temperatures – the problem is they don’t seem to realize that this happened.
Below in Figure 2 is the Berkeley Earth mean surface temperature record for Europe since about 1780. Europe is a good location for the analysis, as some of the longest continuous temperature records are from Europe. It shows that not only 1.5°C, but 2.0°C of warming has occurred.
However, even if the atmosphere has warmed by 2 degrees Celsius since about 1820, the declared catastrophic climate tipping points have not occurred.
Despite the evidence to the contrary provided by actual data, climate warnings about future tipping points seem to be a frequent feature of the media, but they never happen – “Déjà vu again.”
Harmful “tipping points” have been claimed to make good headlines and lead the story, but no proof exists. In addition, with the immense adaptability that humans have demonstrated to time-varying climatic conditions and different environments, and the consistently progressive society that has shown along with technological innovations that bring revolutionary, there is no reason to believe that man is facing any dire times now.
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front and behind the camera as an online broadcast meteorologist since 1978, and now does daily radio forecasting. He has created graphical weather display systems for television, specialized weather instruments, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed articles on climate issues. He runs the world’s most viewed website on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.
Related
