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The Global Carbon Project’s TRENDY MIP, the 2018 European Drought MIP, the SDGVM Model, and me


By: Patrick C. McGuire

The annual TRENDY MIP was began in 2010 as a way to evaluate completely different land fashions and their capacity to mannequin the sources and sinks of carbon within the land (i.e., to/from the soil and the vegetation from/to the ambiance). TRENDY supplies model-mean and model-spread estimates of the uptake of carbon by the land all through the globe for the World Carbon Mission, leading to an annual publication concerning the World Carbon Price range. The World Carbon Price range makes an attempt to stability the carbon finances for your complete globe, together with the anthropogenic carbon emissions (whether or not from burning fossil fuels or from modifications in land use) and the altering carbon reservoirs within the ocean, ambiance, and the land. So far as I do know, TRENDY isn’t a typical acronym, the place every letter corresponds to a phrase, however as an alternative, it refers to ‘traits’ within the carbon shops and fluxes with time.

I arrived on the College of Studying from my former house in Berlin in July 2017 to work as a Land Floor Processes Computational Scientist right here. My involvement within the World Carbon Mission’s TRENDY MIP might be traced again to January 2018 when Tristan Quaife (College of Studying) requested me to transform information for the CALIBRE agroforestry undertaking. He wished me to take the forcing/driving climate information from ISIMIP as much as the 12 months 2100, which was in NETCDF format, and convert it to an ASCII/textual content format utilized by the Sheffield Dynamic World Vegetation Mannequin (SDGVM; Woodward, Smith, and Emanuel, 1995; Woodward and Lomas, 2004; Walker et al., 2017). The concept was to then run SDGVM with this climate information and with quite a lot of agroforestry reforestation situations within the UK as a way to see if there was an optimum agroforestry technique. I used to be not concerned in working the SDGVM mannequin additional for the CALIBRE agroforestry undertaking, however my work on changing the driving climate information for SDGVM did catch the eyes of each Tristan and his colleague, Anthony Walker. Anthony has been a developer of SDGVM for quite a lot of years, and he’s based mostly at Oak Ridge Nationwide Laboratory in Tennessee, within the USA.

Anthony and Tristan subsequently requested me in March 2019 if I may use SDGVM to take part in a MIP for evaluating land fashions for the European Drought in 2018, which has been led by Ana Bastos. Ana was then at Ludwig Maximilians College in Munich, and he or she is now on the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany. For this undertaking on the 2018 European Drought, I used to be ready, firstly, to adapt Anthony’s R scripts to transform the ERA5 driving information (from the NETCDF format to SDGVM textual content format) over the European area for 1979-2018 that Ana had offered; secondly, to run SDGVM with this transformed information; and thirdly, to provide the day by day and month-to-month NETCDF output information (changing from SDGVM textual content format to NETCDF format) for SDGVM. I then delivered these NETCDF output information from SDGVM to Ana, which she analyzed for the 2018 European Drought MIP. She has subsequently revealed three first-author journal papers, together with myself because the distinctive SDGVM co-author, in Bastos et al. (2020a-b, 2021). One rule for the 2018 European Drought MIP was that just one member of every mannequin’s group could possibly be a co-author. This rule was handed all the way down to the 2018 European Drought MIP from the TRENDY MIP’s algorithm. In any other case, certainly Anthony and Tristan would have been co-authors, as properly.

From what I perceive, some years earlier, Tristan had approached the TRENDY MIP organizers, suggesting that Anthony, as a SDGVM skilled, may run SDGVM for the TRENDY MIP, and therefore, SDGVM may additional complement the opposite DGVMs that had been already a part of the TRENDY MIP. Anthony was in a position to become involved within the TRENDY MIP with SDGVM, and the primary 12 months that he was a co-author on the next annual World Carbon Price range paper was in 2016 (Le Quére et al. 2016). Anthony additionally ran SDGVM for the TRENDY MIPs, which had been revealed in 2017, 2018, and 2020. On account of my work on the 2018 European Drought with SDGVM, Anthony and Tristan requested me to run SDGVM for the TRENDY MIP, which was revealed as a part of the World Carbon Price range in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al. 2019). This concerned the conversion of CRU climate enter information (Harris et al. 2014) from NETCDF format to SDGVM textual content format and the landcover information (Land-Use Harmonization based mostly upon LUH2 v2h from 1700-1950, and based mostly upon HYDE from 1951-2018) from NETCDF to the SDGVM textual content format; working the SDGVM below a number of completely different TRENDY experimental protocols; and changing the SDGVM text-formatted output information to NETCDF format. This sounds easy, but it surely additionally includes checking for errors and guaranteeing that the output information is affordable and is sensible. Total, this a part of the method began for me in mid-July 2019, and I delivered the primary SDGVM runs to the TRENDY group in mid-August 2019, and the publication of the GCB paper was in December 2019. The World Carbon Price range paper in 2019 already has virtually 800 citations! Anthony did the SDGVM runs for TRENDY in 2020, and I used to be requested to do the SDGVM runs for TRENDY this 12 months (2021), whereby I made my first supply this 12 months in mid-September. The 2021 World Carbon Price range publication (Friedlingstein et al. 2021) ought to be submitted in per week or so from the time of publication of this weblog. So keep tuned!

References

Bastos, A., P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, J. Pongratz, L. Fan, J.-P. Wigneron, U. Weber, M. Reichstein, Z. Fu, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, V. Haverd, A.Okay. Jain, E. Joetzjer, J. Knauer, S. Lienert, T. Loughran, P.C. McGuire, H. Tian, N. Viovy, and S. Zaehle, “Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity”Science Advances, 6, 24, EABA2724 (2020a).

Bastos, A., Z. Fu, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, J. Pongratz, U. Weber, M. Reichstein, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, V. Haverd, A. Jain, E. Joetzjer, J. Knauer, S. Lienert, T. Loughran, P.C. McGuire, W. Obermeier, R.S. Padrón, H. Shi, H. Tian, N. Viovy, and S. Zaehle, “Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018”Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 375, 20190507 (2020b).

Bastos, A., R. Orth, M. Reichstein, P. Ciais, N. Viovy, S. Zaehle, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, P. Gentine, E. Joetzjer, S. Lienert, T. Loughran, P.C. McGuire, J. Pongratz, and S. Sitch, “Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019”Earth System Dynamics, 12, pp. 1015-1035 (2021).

Friedlingstein, P., M.W. Jones, M. O’Sullivan, R.M. Andrew, J. Hauck, G.P. Peters, W. Peters, J. Pongratz, S. Sitch, C. Le Quéré, D.C.E. Bakker, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R. Jackson, P. Anthoni, L. Barbero, A. Bastos, V. Bastrikov, M. Becker, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, N. Chandra, F. Chevallier, L.P. Chini, Okay.I. Currie, R.A. Feely, M. Gehlen, D. Gilfillan, T. Gkritzalis, D.S. Goll, N. Gruber, S. Gutekunst, I. Harris, V. Haverd, R.A. Houghton, G. Hurtt, T. Ilyina, A.Okay. Jain, E. Joetzjer, J.O. Kaplan, E. Kato, Okay. Klein Goldewijk, J.I. Korsbakken, P. Landschützer, S.Okay. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, S. Lienert, D. Lombardozzi, G. Marland, P.C. McGuire, J.R. Melton, N. Metzl, D.R. Munro, J.E.M.S. Nabel, S.-I. Nakaoka, C. Neill, A.M. Omar, T. Ono, A. Peregon, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, L. Resplandy, E. Robertson, C. Rödenbeck, R. Séférian, J. Schwinger, N. Smith, P.P. Tans, H. Tian, B. Tilbrook, F.N. Tubiello, G.R. van der Werf, A.J. Wiltshire, and S. Zaehle, “Global Carbon Budget 2019”Earth System Science Information, 11, pp. 1783-1838 (2019). 

Friedlingstein, P., M.W. Jones, M. O’Sullivan, R.M. Andrew, D.C.E. Bakker, J. Hauck, C. Le Quéré, G.P. Peters, W. Peters, J. Pongratz, S. Sitch, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R.B. Jackson, P. Anthoni, N.R. Bates, M. Becker, L. Bopp, T.T.T. Chau, F. Chevallier, L.P. Chini, M. Cronin, Okay.I. Currie, L. Djeutchouang, X. Dou, W. Evans, R.A. Feely, L. Feng, T. Gasser, D. Gilfillan, T. Gkritzalis, G. Grassi, L. Gregor, N. Gruber, Ö. Gürses, I. Harris, R.A. Houghton, G.C. Hurtt, Y. Iida, T. Ilyina, I.T. Luijkx, A. Jain, S.D. Jones, E. Kato, D. Kennedy, Okay.Okay. Goldewijk, J. Knauer, J.I. Korsbakken, A. Körtzinger, P. Landschützer, S.Okay. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, S. Lienert, J. Liu, G. Marland, P.C. McGuire, J.R. Melton, D.R. Munro, J.E.M.S. Nabel, S.-I. Nakaoka, Y. Niwa, T. Ono, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, L. Resplandy, E. Robertson, M. Rocher, C. Rödenbeck, J. Schwinger, C. Schwingshackl, R. Séférian, A.J. Sutton, T. Tanhua, P.P. Tans, H. Tian, B. Tilbrook, F. Tubiello, G. van der Werf, N. Vuichard, R. Wanninkhof, A.J. Watson, D. Willis, A.J. Wiltshire, W. Yuan, C. Yue, X. Yue, S. Zaehle, and J. Zeng, “ESSD World Carbon Price range 2021”. Earth System Science Information Discussions (2021, in preparation).

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